Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Monday, May 30, 2016
Sunday, May 29, 2016
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Monday, May 23, 2016
MLB 23.5.16 COL Rockies @ PIT Pirates
This one is starting in less than in 40 minutes, so it will be just posted here and on my twitter account. I think the odds on overs are really tempting. Over 8.5 runs total is available at 2.00 at 5Dimes.
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Sunday, May 15, 2016
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Breaking down the downswing
As much as it hurts to say, my tips have sucked tremendously during the month of May. So i sat down and did a bit of analysis as to what has changed. The answer: NOT MUCH!
Let me explain the method used. I'm open to any suggestion as to where i might have gone wrong in the maths.
First I divided the Wins and Losses for the month and labeled them all into three categories:
-ND (No doubter)- Where the win or loss were so clear, they were never in question really
-50-50 - Where the tip could have gone either way, when looking at how the match went
-OMG- Where its a miracle the tip won or lost, based on how it started
When labeling the tips using these categories I was rather conservative and leaned heavier towards the opposite direction. The result: out of 23 tips 12 were ND (3 won- 9 lost), 7 were 50-50 (2 of which were wins, 5 losses) and 4 were OMG (all 4 were losses).
I then recalculated the profit/loss in order to remove variance using the following criteria:
If the match ended as a win for me in real life i multiplied the profits using the following logic:
If W and ND= Net profit * 0,75
If W and 50-50= Net profit * 0,33
If W and OMG- Not applicable, none of the wins were come-from-behind
For the real life losses i applied the following logic:
If L and ND= - (Staked units)
If L and 50-50= Potential profit * 0,33
If L and OMG= Potential profit * 0,75
The result of this quite surprised me. The current month's profit/loss i've shown on Betrush is -92.89. The adjusted profit/loss by using the criteria above showed +2,44 !!
I am still not saying following me right now is the best idea ever, but at least i am certain i haven't lost it entirely. Hope I'll manage to get it together by the end of May and avoid erasing all of April's good work.
Let me explain the method used. I'm open to any suggestion as to where i might have gone wrong in the maths.
First I divided the Wins and Losses for the month and labeled them all into three categories:
-ND (No doubter)- Where the win or loss were so clear, they were never in question really
-50-50 - Where the tip could have gone either way, when looking at how the match went
-OMG- Where its a miracle the tip won or lost, based on how it started
When labeling the tips using these categories I was rather conservative and leaned heavier towards the opposite direction. The result: out of 23 tips 12 were ND (3 won- 9 lost), 7 were 50-50 (2 of which were wins, 5 losses) and 4 were OMG (all 4 were losses).
I then recalculated the profit/loss in order to remove variance using the following criteria:
If the match ended as a win for me in real life i multiplied the profits using the following logic:
If W and ND= Net profit * 0,75
If W and 50-50= Net profit * 0,33
If W and OMG- Not applicable, none of the wins were come-from-behind
For the real life losses i applied the following logic:
If L and ND= - (Staked units)
If L and 50-50= Potential profit * 0,33
If L and OMG= Potential profit * 0,75
The result of this quite surprised me. The current month's profit/loss i've shown on Betrush is -92.89. The adjusted profit/loss by using the criteria above showed +2,44 !!
I am still not saying following me right now is the best idea ever, but at least i am certain i haven't lost it entirely. Hope I'll manage to get it together by the end of May and avoid erasing all of April's good work.
Friday, May 13, 2016
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Monday, May 9, 2016
Sunday, May 8, 2016
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Friday, May 6, 2016
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
MLB 4.5.16 LA Angels @ MIL Brewers
Angels to take this one- Repeat attempt after coming close yesterday :)
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Monday, May 2, 2016
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