Pick 45: Stabaek- Start

I can't believe what i am seeing. Start, who hasn't played a match with 4 or more goals scored in 6 matches, are meeting Stabaek, who are 3-0-4 at home with goal difference 7-13. The bookies set the goal line at amazing 3.25. With the Stabaek impotence at home and the highly motivated Start to take an away point (they changed the coach last week) i dont think there is space for many goals here.

Tip: Under 3.25 goals @2.06 (188bet)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST
W-L-Void: 30-14-1
P/L: -100
Overall P/L: +1201.56, total bets: 3350€, ROI 35.86%

Pick 44: Salzburg- Matersburg

I cant believe how low the odds on Salzburg are. I am not saying they cant win, but having 1.88 on Matersburg with 1.75 handicap seems like a super value. Salzburg haven't been the best of teams and surely isn't capable of trashing an opponent, especially not an opponent that can score as much as Matersburg can. They managed a measly 1-0 win against Slovakian Senica during the week in their EL qualifier and i don't think they'll be able to relax in the rematch coming this week. Mattersburg on the other hand has a lot to prove, as they have started the season terribly with a loss and a draw away at Sturm.

Pick: Matersburg (+1.75) @1.88 (Dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-0
W-L-Void: 30-13-1
P/L: +66
Overall P/L: +1301.56, total bets: 3250€, ROI 40.04%

Pick 43: Hradec Kralove- Victoria Zizkov

Hradec Kralove had an excellent set of pre-season matches with a score of 5-1-2. The team is a mix of youth and experience and looks a lot like last year's team so they wont have any trouble getting right down to business. Zizkov on the other hand had a bad string of results in the pre-season friendlies and tested more than 50 players in this period. Not many of them showed they deserve a place in the first team. The team is composed mainly of young players with little or no Gambrinus liga experience. Today they are hoping for a draw but i think Hradec will be too strong for them.

Tip: Hradec Kralove win @1.66 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 100

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 29-13-1
P/L: +66
Overall P/L: +1235.56, total bets: 3175€, ROI 38.91%

Pick 42: Flamengo-Gremio

I see a lot of support on Flamengo's side on this one and i dont quite get it. Its true they might be better on paper at the moment, but that gap isn't that big and the matches between these two teams seem to produce an extra effort on both sides. Last 5 times Flamengo met Gremio at home the score was tight and no more than three goals was scored in either of the games. Both teams are mostly playing games under 2.5 (Flamengo 5O/7U, Gremio 4O/7U) and i'd be more than willing to take the under 2.75 at odds of around 2.0.

Tip: Under 2.75 goals @2.00 (dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-0
W-L-Void: 28-13-1
P/L: +75
Overall P/L: +1169.56, total bets: 3075€, ROI 38.03%

Pick 41: Metalurg Donetsk- Dynamo Kiev

Metalurg is underperforming at the start of this season, having won only once. The lost to Shakhtar (no shame in that, much stronger teams have lost to them) and away at Poltava. Kiev has been good so far in the league, but suffered a very heavy home defeat against Rubin in the Champions league qualifier. With the second match coming during the next week i think they will be happy to leave Donetsk with a point.

Tip: Metalurg Donetsk +1.25 @1.7 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-0
W-L-Void: 27-13-1
P/L: +35
Overall P/L: +1094.56, total bets: 3000€, ROI 36.48%

Pick 39 & 40: Tours- Metz

Two tips come to mind here. First, the home win, due to the absences in defense (Koulibaly, Diagne, Borbiconi, Abdoulaye). The second one is the Over 2.25, due to the absences and the general scoring style both teams play. In last years campaign Tours had a goal difference of 52-59 and Metz had 43-40. The amount of teams who had more than 2.2 goals per match in France 2 is minimal. On top of everything Metz played the first competitive match this year in the League Cup and it ended in a 5-4 loss at Le Havre.

Tips: -Tours win @2.4 (Gamebookers)
-Over 2.25 @2.09 (dafabet)

Stakes: -Tours win 50
-Over 2.25 75

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 26-13-1
P/L: -5
Overall P/L: +1059.56, total bets: 2950€, ROI 35.91%

Lay the away favorite- Day 18

Max liability is 48.11. All picks on Betfair.

1.Volyn- Metalist lay @1.66 LOST -48.11
2.Hartberg- Austria Lustenau lay @1.80 LOST -48.11

Total W-L: 0-2
P/L: -96.22

Pick 38: Bohemians 1905- Slavia Prague

I was totally surprised by the odds on this match.
On one side we have a promising Bohemians team, having won all of their friendlies. They beat some tough opponents like, Brno, Spartak Trnava, Dukla and Nitra by convincing margins, playing great football.
On the opposite side we have Slavia, a club shaken by financial crisis, a club that bought no new players this summer and a club that saw many of last years players leave. Their friendly matches weren't much better either: Lost to Hradec Kralove twice, lost to Mlada Boleslav, lost to Liberec and drew two times against italian Lazio and Parma (who are at the very beginning of their preparations for the season).
For those chasing bigger odds i would take it even with a one goal handicap on Bohemians. For those chasing "bankers" i suggest the Draw-no-bet on Bohemians. I am going for the home win.

Tip: Bohemians to win @3.18 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-0
W-L-Void: 25-12-1
P/L: 218
Overall P/L: +1064.56, total bets: 2825€, ROI 37.68%

Pick 37: Mainz- Gaz Metan

Mainz is not the team with the firepower to trash the living hell out of an opponent. Even less after the loss of some key players like Andre Schürrle (Leverkusen), Lewis Holtby (to Schalke), Christian Fuchs(also Schalke). Gaz Metan, although not among the top Romanian teams, play tough and should spend most of the match defending. If the dont get broken in the first 30 minutes i dont see Mainz running them over.

Tip: Gaz Metan +2.5 @1.48 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-1
W-L-Void: 24-12-1
P/L: 36
Overall P/L: +846.56, total bets: 2725€, ROI 31.06%

Pick 36: Anorthosis- Rabotnicki Skopje

Anorthosis had a terrible away match with Georgian Gagra, where they lost 2-0 and almost lost the advantage created in the first leg. Rabotnicki on the other hand is the best rated Macedonian club in international competitions and surely isnt going to go down easy. On top of everything, all bookies suggest this should be a low scoring affair and yet somehow, they give Rabotnicki odds of almost 2.00 with the 1.5 handicap. Just because i think the bookies are much better on pricing the over/under market than the Handicap market i will take the away team here.

Tip: Rabotnicki Skopje+1.5(AH) @1.98 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: Didn't even need the handicap, final score 0-2
W-L-Void: 23-12-1
P/L: 49
Overall P/L: +810.56, total bets: 2650€, ROI 30.58%

Pick 35: Ventsils- Crvena Zvezda

After revamping last years team (most of the old players left the team) Zvezda played an excellent set of pre-season games, winning 5 out of 5 matches without even conceding a goal. Ventspils on the other hand is not in a good form, having won only 2 out of the last 6 matches in the league.

Tip: Crvena Zvezda @1.94(Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Result: 90 minute winner, 2-1 for Zvezda
W-L-Void: 22-12-1
P/L: 70.5
Overall P/L: +761.56, total bets: 2600€, ROI 29.29%

Pick 34: Znojmo- Sigma Olomouc B

Many reasons for Znojmo to beat Sigma here.
1. The obvious one, they play a league above Sigma B.
2. Znojmo brought some quality players this year (for ex. Pacanda, ex Sparta) and will surely be one of the teams to beat in the second Czech league.
3. Znojmo has beaten most of its oponents in the pre-season friendly matches, most of them with a lot of scored goals, while Sigma B had a mix of wins, loses and draws (last one against Caslav, a 4-1 defeat).
4. Znojmo basically has no B-team (only a close affiliation with a lower division team) so the team they send on the pitch today will pretty much be the best they have.
5. Czech leagues are one week away and this is the final showdown before second league starts.

Tip: Znojmo win @1.8 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: Clean and clear 5-1
W-L-Void: 21-12-1
P/L: 80
Overall P/L: +691.06, total bets: 2525€, ROI 27.36%

Pick 33: Twente- Vaslui

I see some value in the over 2.5 market here. The bookies are offering odds at around 1.8. Both teams seem to be scoring a lot of goals. All of Twente's friendly games were over 2.5, and vaslui had one 4-2 win against Manisa and a 1-1 draw against Sparta Prague. I think Vaslui is capable of getting a goal here, which is crucial for our bet.

Tip: Over 2.5 @1.8 (bet365)

Stake: 75

Result: 2-0
W-L-Void: 20-12-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +611.06, total bets: 2425€, ROI 25.19%

Pick 32: CSKA- Krylya Sovetov Samara

This one is also a mind boggling one. Out of the last 6 home matches for CSKA only 1 had 4 goals scored. Samara's last 6 matches away have been 3 or less goals. Cska has 9 under 2.5, 7 overs, Samara has 11(!!) under 2.5, 5 over 2.5. And the bookies are giving us odds of over 2.00 to try the under 3. Its like a free bet basically, thanks bookies:).

Tip: Under 3 @2.11 (Dafabet)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-1, the bet is a PUSH
W-L-Void: 20-11-1
P/L: 0
Overall P/L: +686.06, total bets: 2350€, ROI 29.19%

Pick 31: MyPa- Rovaniemi

My perception of the Finnish league: 1. HJK 2. Inter 3-dead last- teams that cant score when being a favorite. Two of those teams clash today in the forms of MyPa vs ROPS. Its true ROPS has 5 away matches where the total has gone over 2.5 but most of them were when they were getting the bejesus beaten out of them. Mypa has the last 5 home games without a match with 4 goals. Best of all: we're getting the Under 3 at around 2.00. I would be a fool not to take that.

Tip: Under 3 @1.98 (Pinnaclesports.com)

Stake: 100

Result: 2-0
W-L: 20-11
P/L: +98
Overall P/L: +686.06, total bets: 2350€, ROI 29.19%

Pick 30: FC Copenhagen- Odense

This will be one of the rare occasions where we can get FC Copenhagen at odds above 1.50. The bookies were so generous that they even gave us 1.73 on them. This i can not miss.

Tip: FC copenhagen win @1.73 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 100

Result: Guess thats why it was 1.73, 2-2 final score
W-L: 19-11
P/L: -100
Overall P/L: +588.06, total bets: 2250€, ROI 26.13%

Pick 29: Motherwell- Inverness

Motherwell showed some good performances in the pre-season friendlies, while Inverness had two sub-par draws against teams in the lower English divisions. Pre-season form, combined with the fact that more than 10 players left Inverness in the off-season is a good indicator that they wont be too ready for this game. There are some excellent odds on the AH market for this one.

Tip:Asian Handicap Motherwell(-0.5) win @2.26 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake:50

Result: 3-0
W-L: 19-10
P/L: +63
Overall P/L: +688.06, total bets: 2150€, ROI 32.00%

Lay the away favorite- Day 17

Today's liability is 48.36. All picks on Betfair.

Picks:
1.Deveronvale- Stirling lay@1.97 LOST -48.36
2.Airdrie- Livingston lay@1.77 LOST -48.36
3.Arbroath- Dundee FC lay@1.8 WON +57.42
4.Q. Park- Hamilton lay@1.55 LOST -48.36
5.Stranraer- Morton lay@1.68 LOST -48.36
6.Vointa Sibiu- S. Bucharest lay@1.62 WON +74.1
7.Nafta- Maribor lay@1.63 LOST -48.36
8.Longford- Cork City lay@1.69 LOST -48.36
9.Jaro- HJK lay@1.42 WON +109.38

W-L: 3-6

P-L: -49.26

Pick 28: Drogheda- Galway

Two retarded teams meet today, one scoring 12, one 14 goals in 23 games. The bookmakers are going crazy on the overs for some reason far beyond my comprehension. If recent matches are the key indicator then we're going to do ok because, although their last few games were extremely high scoring, the scoring was done by their opponent.

Tip: Under 3 @2.05 (188bet)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-0
W-L: 18-10
P/L: +78.75
Overall P/L: +625.06, total bets: 2100€, ROI 29.76%

Lay the away favorite- Day 16

Liability is 47.97

1.VPS- Inter (lay)@1.58 (Betfair) WON 78.57

Pick 27: Tromso- Paks +2

I can not believe the amount of support Tromso is getting. Its true they might be the better team, its true that Norwegian league might be a bit better than Hungarian, but having Paks at 1.55 with two added goals to their count is just too much. The first match ended 1-1 and now all of the sudden they need to lose by 3? I like my chances here.

Tip: Paks+2 @1.55 (bet365)
Stake:100

Result: 0-3
W-L: 17-10
P/L: +55
Overall P/L: +546.31, total bets: 2025€, ROI 26.97%

Pick 26: Palmeiras- Flamengo RJ

This one will be a good match up between two of Brazil's top sides so i don't expect much fireworks. The odds for under 2.5 dont seem right to me, but i see some value in the under 2.75 (half bet under 2.5, other half under 3 goals). Pinnacle is offering them at 1.66 and i think its worth a shot.

Tip: Under 2.75 @1.66 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-0
W-L: 16-10
P/L: +33
Overall P/L: +491.31, total bets: 1925€, ROI 25.52%

Pick 25: Uruguay- Peru

With all the speculation over how both teams had full 120mins of matches the previous round and how everybody will be so tired, the price for the Over 2.5 skyrocketed. Lets not forget that we are speaking of South American teams capable of scoring at any given moment, given just a hint of a chance. With that firepower packed especially in Uruguay's team and the odds at 2.22 i just cant let the AH +2.25 go.

Tip: Over 2.25(Asian Handicap) @2.22(Ladbrokes)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-2
W-L: 15-10
P/L: -37.5
Overall P/L: +458.31, total bets: 1875€, ROI 24.44%

Lay the away favorite- Day 15

Max. liability is 47.92. (Betfair)

1.Ural- Rubin Kazan lay@1.87 0-0 WON 52.32
2. Sonderjyske - FC copenhagen lay@1.52 LOST 47.92
3. ROPS- Honka lay@ 1.69 LOST 47.92
4. OPS Jp- Lahti lay@1.85 WON 53.55
5. Grindavik- IBV lay @1.98 WON 46,45
6. Halmstad- Elfsborg lay @1.54 LOST 47.92

W-L: 3-3
P-L: 8.56

Pick 24: Gais v Orebro

Orebro are in terrible form topped by the midweek draw at home vs bosnian Sarajevo in the Europa league. GAIS are in good form and are showing some solid home performances. At odds of 2.00 i see great value in this match.

Tip: GAIS win @2 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: 4-1
W-L: 15-9
P/L: +75€
Overall P/L: +495.81, total bets: 1800€, ROI 27.54%

Pick 23: St.Pauli- FC Ingolstadt

St Pauli showed some impresive results in the pre season friendlies, beating two of the top Danish teams at its own home field. Ingolstadt on the other hand had some miserable results topped by the 6-1 loss to Wehen. At 1.97 this is a good value bet.

Tip: St Pauli win @1.97 (Pinnaclesports.com)

Stake 75

Result: 2-0
W-L: 14-9
P/L: +72.75€
Overall P/L: +420.81, total bets: 1725€, ROI 24.39%

Pick 22: Pironkova- Penetta

Well i guess Pironkova is becoming my favorite tennis player. She is again offered at whopping 2.45 in a match she could win just as easily as she could lose. Penetta hasn't shown much in terms of form lately while Pironkova went deep in Wimbledon beating Williams and Zvonareva and ended up losing to the eventual winner Kvitova. At 2.45 i would be more than tempted to try this.

Tip: Pironkova win @2.45 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-2 guess it wasnt Pironkovas day after all
W-L: 13-9
P/L: -50€
Overall P/L: +348.06, total bets: 1650€, ROI 21,09%

Pick 21: Greuter - Eintracht

If the pre-season friendly matches are any indicator this match should be a goalfest. The last match Greuter played ended in a 17-0 thrashing of some poor bastards and as far as Eintracht is concerned, the last 3 matches they played this summer have an average of over 5 goals per match.

Tip: Asian handicap: Over 2.25 @1.87 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-3
W-L: 13-8
P/L: +87€
Overall P/L: +398.06, total bets: 1600€, ROI 24,87%

Pick 20: Iskra Stal- Varteks

This one wont be as dry as the bookies expect it to be. Both teams score and concede a lot of goals.

Tip: Over 2.25 @1.925 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-1, half stake (37.5) is returned, rest is lost
W-L: 12-8
P/L: -37.5€
Overall P/L: +311.06, total bets: 1500€, ROI 20.73%

Lay the away favorite- Day 14

Maximum liability is 47.67.

1. Suduva- Elfsborg lay @1.52 WON 87.08
2. Glentoran- Vorskla lay@1.64 LOST -47.67
3. Flamurtari- Jablonec lay@1.89 LOST -47.67
4. Vlaznia - Thun lay@1.86 WON 52.65
5. Metalurgs- Salzburg lay@1.5 LOST -47.67
6. PS Kemi- Oulu lay@1.85 WON 53.27

W-L: 3-3

P-L: +50€

Lay the away favorite- Day 13

Liability is 47.85

1. Skenderbeu- APOEL lay @1.7 LOST -47.85

2. Bangor- HJK lay @1.45 LOST -47.85

3. Linfield- BATE lay@1.42 WON +108.23

4. Sconto- Wisla lay@1.76 LOST -47.85

W-L 1-3

P-L -35.31€

Pick 19: TuTo - TiPS Under 2.5

I seem to be missing something here. When two teams that have scored 17 goals in 24 matches combined meet shouldn't the under be the odds on favorite? The odds on under are a stunning 2.4. I am not saying this cant end up 5-4, but for odds of 2.4 we can sure give it a try.

Pick: Under 2.5 @2.4 (bwin)

Stake:50€

Result: 3-0
W-L: 12-7
P/L: -50€
Overall P/L: +348.56, total bets: 1425€, ROI 24.46%

Pick 18: FC Lustenau- LASK Linz

FC Lustenau has an extremely young team (the oldest player in the squad is born 1985) which will take some time to blend. LASK on the other hand were relegated from the Bundesliga last season and will do anything tho get back this season. They have won 5/5 of their friendly pre-season matches.

Tip: LASK win @2.1 (Dafabet)

Stake: 50

Result: 1-1 draw
W-L: 12-6
P/L: -50€
Overall P/L: +398.56, total bets: 1375€, ROI 28.98%

Pick 17: Valletta- Ekranas

I can't believe the odds on Ekranas are over 2. In its domestic league Ekranas has a 13-4-0 record with only 4 conceded goals and today they are facing a weak opponent that cant be much stronger than the average Lithuanian team. In my opinion Valletta will spend most of the match defending its goal and Ekranas shouldn't have a lot of problems in breaking them, especially since they have played lots of similar games in their own league where one team is defending and they are attacking all the time. Anything but an away win here will be a big surprise.

My tip: Ekranas win @2.39 Pinnaclesports.com

Result: Ekranas won 3-2
W-L: 12-5
P/L: +139€
Overall P/L: +448.56, total bets: 1325€

Pick 16: Handicap: Argentina (-1.5) v Costa Rica

Argentina will give its best after the two disappointing draws to start the championship. Costa Rica will enter the game much more relaxed as it already has a win and a secured spot further in the groups.

Tip: Argentina (-1.5) 1.63 @bet365

Stake: 75

Result: Argentina beat CR 3-0
W-L: 11-5
P/L: +47.25€
Overall P/L: +309.56, total bets: 1225€, ROI 25.27%

Pick 15: Tommy Robredo- Filippo Volandri

Robredo is in terrible form at the moment. Head to head is 4-3 (all on clay) in favor of Robredo but their last match was back in 2007. This will be a tough matchup and having Volandri at 3.64 is super awesome value.

Tip: Volandri @3.64 (Pinnacle Sports)

Stake: 50€

Result: Volandri won after Robredo retired in the 2nd set. According to Pinnacle rules the bet stands. Had it been bet365, the bet would have been void
W-L: 10-5
P/L: +132€
Overall P/L: +262.31, total bets: 1150€, ROI 22.8%

Lay the away favorite- Day 12

Today's max liability is 46.98.

1. Arsenal Kiev- Dnipro lay@1.61

2. Volgar- Alania lay @1.44

W-L: 2-0

P-L: +174.59

Pick 14: Palmeiras- Santos

Santos has three key players playing the Copa America, while Palmeiras has only one (Valdivilla- Chile). At 1.91 this is way too good to miss.

Tip: Palmeiras @1.91 Ladbrokes

Stake: 100€

Result: Palmeiras won 3-0
W-L: 9-5
P/L: +91€
Overall P/L: +130.31, total bets: 1100€, ROI 11.84%

Lay the away favorite- Day 11

Max liability is 47.21.

1. Wexford v Monaghan lay@1.47 1-2

W/L: 0-1

P/L: -47.21

Lay the away favorite- Day 10

Maximum liability is 47.12.

1. ROPS v Marienhamn lay@1.99 1-1 +45.21
2. LoPa v Ilves lay@1.54 2-3 -47.12
3. Fjolnir v Vestmannaeyjar lay@1.88 1-2 -47.12
4. Randaberg v Bodo/Glimt lay@1.67 2-0 +66.81

W/L: 2-2
P/L: +17.78

Lay the away favorite- Day 9

Maximum liability is 47.84.

1. Bray v Sligo lay@1.74 (liab 47.84, pot.win 61.41)
2. Drogheda v Derry lay@ 1.43 (liab 47.84, pot.win 105.69)
3. Galway v UCD @1.59 (liab 47.84, pot win 77.03)

W-L 0-3
P/L: -143.52