Apologies

I apologize for the inactivity, not that anyone was interested in my tips anyways. I am currently working on a huge project with the tipsters portfolio which takes up a lot of my time. I might be active again, i might not, it depends on sooo many things its hard to predict...

Tipster portfolio selections nr.6

Goals: Zenit o2.5, Gimnastic o2.5

1X2: Paderborn

AH: Slask +0.0

Tipster portfolio selections nr.5

Todays matches:

Snooker: O'Sullivan and S.Murphy

Football: Santos

Goals: Atletiko Mineiro Over2.5

Good luck!

Result: +1.31 in level stakes. If your stakes were 10, you would have a 13.1 points profit.

Tipster portfolio selections nr.4

Some picks for today:

Wins:Ghana, Ukraine, Croatia, Denmark, Switzerland, Poland, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, France

Goals: Germany O2.5

Cricket: Victoria

Result: Average day slightly in the green. If level stakes applied the matches would have brought a profit of 0.61 (If the stake you use is 10$, you would have achieved a 6.1$ profit total).

Tipster portfolio selections nr.3

Since i haven't posted an NHL preview in about a week here's what the guys from my tipster portfolio think about some of tonight's matches:

1. Florida win

2. Detroit (-1.5) win

3. Montreal (-1.5) win

The same warning applies. Though the tipsters that gave these tips are very good, take these picks as a guideline more than a rock solid moneymaker.

Result: 2 of 3 were winners. If level stakes were applied 1.94 profit would be achieved.

Tipster portfolio selections

Since the tipster portfolio i am creating is a grueling job and there's no way of putting some work in my personal previews i might as well share some of the tips by the tipsters in my portfolio.

Tonight's selection:

1. Elgin over 2.5

2. Alloa or draw

3. Gasquet to win

4. Annan athletic (-1)AH

Use them wisely and remember: they are a part of a bigger picture, so don't bet your house on them.

Result: 4 out of 4 successful. I frankly cant remember the last time when i went 4 /4. Does this prove anything? Probably not!! Still a lot of work left.

Pick 192: Seppi- Davydenko

This match would have been of no interest to me at the opening odds (Davydenko win around 1.6). The market moved in a favorable direction this morning and i'd be more than happy to take Davydenko at a price around 1.8.

Davydenko leads the head to head 3-1, 3-0 in the last three. The only loss against Seppi came on grass in 2004. Another huge factor in this one should be the amount of matches played lately. While Davydenko has played 5 matches last month and one match this month (the loss against Ferer in the QF in Valencia) Seppi has played 10 matches the last month and another 4 already this month, the most recent one against Querrey yesterday (a win in 3 sets).

Seppi has shown some good form lately, but a deeper look at the opponents shows that the draw was favorable in a lot of the latest matches. He won the Mons tournament in October beating Bennetau, Darcis, Berankis, Jaziri and Burquier on the way to the win. We can agree that none of these players represents the very best in tennis at the moment. Other than that he lost to Berrer, Cilis and Nishikori in the following few tournaments he played.

Davydenko doesn't play as much tournaments. Despite the loss to Darcis in he first round in Vienna all other losses lately came against top-notch oponents. Tipsarevic beat him twice, Djokovic once and Ferrer once to end his tournament campaigns in Valencia, Moscow, Kuala Lumpur and the US open.

Pick: Davydenko @1.77 (betonline)

Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Tipster portfolio selections

Over the past few days i have been working on a tipster portfolio compiled from the biggest tipster websites i could find. The tipsters are chosen according to their field of expertise and the whole thing is in testing phase. Of course according to the performance of the tipsters i will be balancing the stakes, decide on conflicting tips and maybe drop or add tipsters. Here's a sneak peek of what they said for today (all stakes are the same, odds are found using oddsportal):

Winners: Werder (1.52), Cardif (1.95), Ipswich (1.77), Southampton (1.85), Tranmere (2.26), Shef.utd (2.75), Carlisle (2.73) , Chesterfield (2.38), Oldham (2.07), Hartlepool (4.23)

Draws: Sh.wednesday (3.88), Blackpool (3.52)

Goals: Queens park- Annan U3(1.79), P.Vale o2.75 (1.95), liverpool U3 (1.79), blackpool o2.5 (1.9), Gateshead o2.5 (1.65), Newport c o2.5(1.73), Crewe o2.5 (1.83)

Take these tips with caution because they only represent a part of the tips they've given for the matches starting before 16.00 CET. The total is more than 40, however even this might help someone find a winner since they are coming from really good tipsters that know what are they doing. Good luck to you all.

P.S.: This has nothing to do with my regular tips. That will return hopefully today.

Pick 191: NY Rangers- San Jose Sharks

Its Sharks' last match of a 6 game long road trip. Result so far: flawless 5-0-0! They have totally forgotten about the 1-3-0 start and swept all comers aside. And there were some tough teams among those: Detroit, Boston, Nashville, New jersey and the Islanders were all crushed and there's only one more before they go back home. The shaky Rangers.
Rangers started the hectic season in Europe, then went to the west coast, then Canada before returning back home. The grueling schedule helped deplete Rangers defense and the record shows that: 3-3-3. Mark Staal is nearing his comeback, but he's not ready yet. Today's practice was without Del Zoto (another defender) and Anisimov and Rupp is also having knee problems. So most of the team is banged up and the Rangers are doing all in their power to contain the score and not to lose ground before the injured players come back. There's one callup from AHL for today's match: Andre Deveaux, who will fill the 4th line. Besides Gaborik and Richards, who have 8pts each, there's no scoring help from the others and the Rangers look pathetic at times. This could especially be seen in the SO loss to Otawa two days ago.

Pick: San Jose (in 60 min)@ 2.3(expect)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 190: Fenerbahce- Kardemir Karabuk

Fenerbahce is the clear favorite here and i think the good prices for Fenerbahce win and all different handicaps are already gone. Betting on Fenerbahce at 1.3 or the 1.5AH at 1.8 is way too risky.
I do however see an opportunity in the goals market, where over 2.5 is offered at 1.7. I see this as a generous offer especially considering the fact that we have a huge home favorite who wont be satisfied by just scoring one goal. Fenerbahce are coming of a huge 2-2 draw against Besiktas and a disappointing home draw against Samsun, so i think its finally time for a show at their own field.
Karabuk aren't having the best start. They are currently 15th with 2-2-4 score and 9-11 goal difference. They are showing signs of improvement lately, drawing against Samsun 0-0 and defeating Buyuksehir 2-0. Even in the three losses before these two matches they managed to score a goal in each encounter (2-1 Manisa, 2-1 Ordu, 3-1 Trabzon). If they manage to squeeze one past Fener too i am confident this bet will be a winner because i don't see any other outcome than Fenerbahce win in this one.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.7 (expect)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 189: Columbus- Anaheim

Backup goalies seem to be getting most of the minutes against the Columbus Blue Jackets this season. Tonight will be no exception when Dan Ellis will take the ice for Anaheim, the 4th consecutive team that sends their 2nd goalie on the ice against the Jackets. Columbus doesn't seem to benefit from the sub-par goaltending though. They are bottom of the league with 1-9-1 score and special teams that make you sad even when you look at them.
However some glimpse of improvement has been shown over the last few matches. Last home match they defeated the Detroit Red Wings quite convincingly 4-1. Then they went on to fire 43 shots against Buffalo, the most this season, in a loss 4-2. After that followed yet another defeat away against Chicago, champions from two seasons ago, where they managed to fire 27 shots. A statistic comparing this year's forward performance to the average career stats shows a decrease in most categories in every forward's stats with a few exceptions here and there (and even those are +0.01 from the average most of the time). There's no way every single forward on the Columbus roster will end up the season worse than the last year. This in terms means that sooner or later most of the players will start nearing towards this average of theirs and start putting points on the board.
Tonight's opponent might be a good starting point. The ducks are in the middle of a grueling 7 game road trip, having played 3 already (1-1-1 score) so far and losing the most recent one, yesterday against Nashville 3-0 in one of the poorest performances so far.
These facts combined with the tempting odds on Columbus seem to make this bet a good proposition.

Pick: Columbus (in 60min) @2.79 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 188: Montreal- Boston

This is the second of a back-to-back matchup between these two teams. I saw the first one and i must say both teams are much better than their current record is. The first match was one by the Habs 2-1, but Boston could have taken that either and it would have been fair too. The shot totals were 35-30 in favor of the Canadiens, but the Habs had 21 blocked shots, which brings the total Boston shots amount to 51!! In a situation like that its a miracle how the total remained at three when it could have easily been 5, 6 or more.
Not really sure who will win this one as it will depend much on momentum and small things, but i am sure if they play anything similar to the first match we're in for a great game with a lot of chances to score on both sides.
Since Canbet are obviously asleep on this one, offering 1.9 on the over 5 goals (Full time incl OT and SO) i will have to take it.

Pick: Over 5(incl OT and SO) @1.9 (Canbet)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 187: Colorado- Edmonton

Another streak is coming to an end tonight. Edmonton has a 3 game winning streak on home ice against the Rangers, Canucks and Capitals. Not many teams will be able to say they've beaten these three teams at home this season. The Oilers did it in one week. The quality of the opposition graded with each game and it peaked yesterday when they had to entertain the Washington Capitals who came with a 7-0-0 score. The Oilers took the test and passed it with flying colors. But when all is said and done its just another W in the win column. They still had to board a plane, fly to Colorado, go out on a practice and will have to face today's opponent who's last game was Wednesday. The young core of Edmonton just isn't used to this tempo. Oh yeah, the altitude in Colorado also doesn't help.
Colorado comes of a disappointing defeat against Calgary and i am sure the coach had a few harsh words for the effort. Today they return to their home arena where they started 0-2 and they will give their best to repay what they owe the home fans: a home win.
The media are hyping up the matchup of the two youngest stars the teams have at the moment: Nugent-Hopkins and Landeskog.I am not so excited about it though. Not because they arent great players, but the circumstances under which Edmonton arives to play todays match might prevent Nugent from performing at his peak.

Pick: Colorado(in 60mins.) @2.10 (Expect)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 186: Detroit- San Jose

We had a similar situation last night in the Nashville- Tampa game. A team in a slump (if you can call 2 loses in a row a slump) plays host to a hot team winning three in a row against tough opponents. Lets hope it will provide the same results as it did yesterday.
The Red Wings after starting 5-0-0 lost two away games and all journalists and blogs are already in panic mode. I would say its too early to panic, but the pounding at the hands of Washington 7-1 and Columbus (of all the teams in the world) surely raises a few concerns. Even Mike Babcock, Detroit's coach seems to think so. He sent a message by scheduling a practice yesterday, a day in which the team usually rests. I am sure the guys got the message and they will enter today's match with a whole new approach.
On the opposite sides stand the San Jose Sharks, a team that has to have mixed feelings about the start of the season. They started off horribly, going 1-3-0 and then went on their longest road trip for the whole season (7 games). The start brought a positive shift of energy and they won the first three, beating some good teams (Boston, Nashville and New Jersey). However, I don't really believe they have what it takes to win 7 of 7. Not yet anyways. I've noticed some signs of decline in the penultimate match against the Bruins when they allowed 39 shots on goal and blocked 21!!! This means most of the game, even though they won it, was in their thirds. And the Sharks aren't used to that type of matches. The game against Nashvile was also tighter than the final score tells us. The 1-1 was broken 5 minutes before the end of regulation and the third was an empty netter.
On top of all of this you can add the frenetic crowd at the Joe Lewis Arena and expect a great match in which the Red Wings should be too good for the Sharks.

Pick: Detroit (incl OT and SO) @1.82 (5dimes)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 185: Pardubice- Karlovy Vary

Pardubice haven't beaten Karlovy Vary on their home ice three years. Karlovy Vary had a rough start to the season but slowly are getting into stride, having won the last two matches 6-2 against Slavia and Litvinov on home ice. The question remains if they will transfer that form on the oponent's ice, but given the odds that is a risk i am willing to take. Pardubice seem to be switching wins and loses in a very predictable pattern. Their lats 5 matches went W L W L W. Three of them went to OT.

Pick: Karlovy Vary (in 60 mins.) @4.6(bwin)
Stake: 25

Result: LOST
Note: from 0-3 it went to 3-3 in the last third

Pick 184: Liberec- Sparta

I am playing the numbers game here:
-3 of the last 5 matches between these two teams, including this season's first matchup, went to OT
-3 of the last 5 home matches for Liberec, including 2 of the last 2 went to overtime
-3 of the last 5 matches Sparta played went into OT
-The last 3 away matches Sparta played went into OT
-Odds on the regulation draw can be found at 4.2 and above (i even found 4.33). This represents 23.8% chances, meaning if we took this every time and 1 out of 4 ended in a regulation draw we're positive.
-See where i am going with this one?:)

Why i think this might actually come true:
Its true Sparta hasn't won here since 2007, but history is not a factor to lean on much in Czech hockey since the changes the teams go through from season to season are just to huge for historical stats to matter. Liberec will be handicapped entering this match. They will miss Spacek (forward, 13 matches so far, 3G,2A), Klimenta (forward, 13 matches, 5G,3A, 3rd team scorer) who they've sent on a loan to Trinec for some reason beyond my comprehension, Moravec (5G, 0G, 0A), Visek (5G, 0G, 0A) and Kudrna (12Gm, 1Gl, 3Ass) who is uncertain. In Sparta's team only one missing is Krstev (3 games this season).
Liberec best player at the moment is 40yrs old Petr Nedved with 21 pts (10+11). The rest are a landslide behind in scoring. Take him out and you're gold. With the addition of Koci to the team that might come easier than you think. Sparta's scoring is more leveled with Ton, Tenkrat and Bliznak with 14, 12 and 10 pts.
In conclusion i am expecting a close game, edging slightly towards Sparta win, but the regulation draw seems like the best bet here.

Pick: Draw (60mins.) @4.33 (Bodog)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 183: Dallas- Los Angeles

Of all the games tonight this one is probably the most destined to end up in a draw in regulation (maybe along with the Wild- Ducks one). Two of the tightest teams and two of the best goalies so far meet today in a rematch just 4 days after their first, which ended in a 1-0 win for the Kings in LA. The Kings won that match, but were far from the dominating force. In fact Dallas was the better team for most of the match, which was reflected on the shot clock 28 shots for Dallas, 24 for LA.
By simply adding the totals of shots they average per match (around 54 shots total) and factoring the effect the goalies will have (Quick 97.2 save% and 0.81 GAA- simply ridiculous and Lehtonen's 95.5 Save%+ 1.54 GAA) we can conclude this match wont be a wild goal-scoring affair. However, what we can statistically add up bookies can do it ten times better, so there is no real value in going under 5.5 goals.
Instead i am going to pick a side and this time i think Dallas will finally be able to break the curse and score on Quick. For a team that is 3-0 at home, 2.05 i think is way too much of a luxury for us to miss.

Pick: Dallas (incl OT and SO)@ 2.05 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 182: Nashville- Tampa Bay

Nashville have started their season with three consecutive home losses. Tampa are coming of a three game winning streak, two of which against the Buffalo Sabres.With the crowd in Nashville getting anxious and with the returns of Bullion, Fisher and possibly even Erat i think this is a good opportunity for the Preds to take this one away from the Bolts.
On paper these teams play a totally different style of hockey. Tampa's games usually end up goal-fests (3.22 Gf/3.11 Ga), while Nashville plays much tighter games (2.00 Goals for/2.75 Goals against). 5 on 5 Nashville is worse, ratio 0.69 GF/GA, while Tampa has a 1.15 index. However on the PP and the PK Nashville is among the top 1/3 in the league with a PP of 17.2% (5/29) and Pk of 86.8 (5/38). Tampa's special teams are not so hot right now. PP is at 13.3% (4/30) and PK is at 84.1% (7/44).
Basically it will all come down to Preds goalie Rinne performance since we will see a lot of shots being fired at him. All of Preds points so far this year can be credited to his efforts. If he gets couple of good saves early and Preds score a goal first they have a real chance of winning this one.

Pick: Nashville (incl OT and SO) @1.95 (Betonline)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 181: Boston- Montreal

I am one of the firm believers the Canadiens are better than their record so far suggests. They came back on winning track yesterday, when they thrashed Philadelphia 5-1 and will try to surprise Boston on their own ice today. Back to back matches can sure be tough for the teams, but sometimes the momentum from such a win like yesterday can also carry over and before fatigue kicks in you've won the next match too.
There is a special touch of rivalry here. Both teams are members of the original 6, but more importantly this:
"Thursday also marks Pacioretty’s first meeting with Boston since he sustained a concussion and cracked vertebra on a hit by Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara(notes) during a 4-1 Canadiens victory March 8, ending his 2010-11 season."- Source Yahoo! Sports.
I expect a lot of settling of unsettled debts and an electric atmosphere in which special teams might decide the match winner.
Special teams for both teams haven't been up to the task. Bostons PP is at 12.9%(4/31) and their penalty kill is at 87.9% (4/33). Montreal's stats are similar 10.8% (4/37) PP, 82% PK (7/39). 5 on 5 play balances the small edge Boston might have. They have 0.93 golas for/goals against ratio and Montreal has 1.2 index.
Similarities don't end there. Both teams out-shoot their opponents day in and day out, Boston 34.5-29.4 and Montreal 33.2-26.1 but still both concede more than they score on average (Boston 2.25 GF/G -2.38 GA/G, Montreal 2.56-2.89)
All in all i expect a tight match where details will decide the winner. In these cases i always go for the big odds.

Pick: Montreal(in 60 mins.) @3.79 (Bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 180: Chicago- Anaheim

Chicago faces Anaheim in a match they should easily win. Anaheim is coming of two straight defeats at home against Phoenix and Dallas and Chicago is coming of a OT loss to the Avs.
Statistically Chicago dominates all relevant aspects to today's match. They are out-shooting their opponents 33.3-27.6. Anaheim is out-shot 27.9-28.3. Goals for and goal against averages are also in Chicago's favor. Chicago scores 3.43 (2nd in the league) and concedes 2.29. Anaheim score 2.14 and receive 2.43. Anaheim's road penalty kill has received 3 goals on 10 kills, while Chicago have 3 goals on 16 power-play attempts on home ice.
This match marks the first of Ducks' 7 away matches to follow and a lot of questions regarding the strength and depth of this team will be answered. Against Chicago though they will be outmatched in every position and i expect a clear Chicago victory.

Pick: Chicago @2.00 (Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 179: Winnipeg- NY Rangers

I might regret saying this at some point this season but Winnipeg, after the opening shock at the beginning of the season, picked themselves up and are not a bad hockey team. The last 5 matches they've won the two home games, lost in OT one away match against Toronto and lost two away games. The only lackluster was the loss against Ottawa 4-1 (Thu. 20th). All of the other matches they played with a lot of pride and effort and results followed.
Fun fact nr.1: Where does Winnipeg's home penalty kill rank in the league? 5th!! They have a 92.9% PK in front of the hockey starved fans in Winnipeg allowing 1 goal on 14 penalty kills.
Fun fact nr. 2: How many goals have the Rangers scored on powerplay? 1!! 1 goal out of 23 tries, which brings them to a total of 4.4%.
Fun fact nr.3: How many home games have the Rangers played this season? 0!! That's right, the Rangers haven't even seen the home ice this season and its starting to take a toll on them. In fact, in expecting the home ice debut they are underestimating today's opponent and placing their backup goalie Biron instead of Lundquist, by far the best player on the team.
Fun fact nr.4: How many of the last 10 games have the Rangers won? 1!! The Jets (formerly Thrashers) are 8-1-1 against the Rangers and 3-0-1 in last years matchup. Their goalie Pavelec is 2-0-1 with 1.3 GAA against the Rangers.
All this fun+ the fact that Rangers are getting outshout night in and night out (23.2 to 32.3) give me some confidence the Jets might go for 3 in a row at home tonight.

Pick: Jets (reg time) @2.75 (bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 178: Montreal- Florida

Both teams made some roster changes before the matchup. Florida sent David Boots to Vancouver in exchange for Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson. Montreal traded for Center Nokelainen from Phoenix in exchange for Trotter from the AHL farm Hamilton and a 7th round pick. Given that Samuelsson is a 100% no show today and Sturm is a probable i would say the impact on Montreal's team is more immediate. The season debuts of Nokelainen, Blunded (recall from Hamilton) and goalie Budaj will surely ignite a few sparks in Montreal as they try to avoid their 6th straight defeat. Along with them defense veteran Jaroslav Spacek is also making a return to the Habs squad.
On goal there is an unlikely matchup of the second goalies. Budaj makes his seasonal debut for Montreal, giving Price a much needed rest after the 3.13 GAA start (87.8 Save %). On the other side Markstrom is likely to start instead of starter Theodore who had to go out in Panthers win against the Islanders due to a lower body injury). That will mark Markstroms 4th match in his NHL career.
5 on 5 florida is just terrible, getting outscored by a 0.64 ratio. montreal is better, posting a 1.08 ratio.
Montreal's powerplay has been their Achilles heel so far, having scored only twice on 25 tries. Florida is one of the best teams in the league in PP execution at 8/28.
If the shot clock is a factor that represents team's activity then Montreal should be the more active one. They have a 32.9-26 sog/sa differential, which is much better than Florida's 29.9-31.9.
Florida had a long trip from their home arena to Montreal, while Montreal remained at home after their heartbreaking loss to Toronto Saturday, when they lead 3-1 and lost 5-4.

Pick: Montreal (in 60 mins.) @2.29 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 177: Philadelphia- Toronto

Philadelphia are coming of a tough defeat at home against the Blues. Toronto's last game was an emotional win against the Canadiens in Montreal.
Flyers goalie Bryzgalov is 4-0-0 with 1.55 GAA against Toronto lifetime. On goal for the Leafs will be Jonas Gustavsson who took over the no.1 spot in the absence of Reimer who went out in the match against Canadiens after a collision with Brian Gionta. He is still getting used to having minutes in the big league and that is reflected in his stats. He's received 9 goals on only 61 shots faced, giving him a terrible 85.2 save percentage.
5 on 5 play both teams are better than their oppositions so far, Philadelphia posting a 1.08 and Toronto has a 1.15 Goals for/goals against ratio.
Powerplay-wise Philadelphia is much better, both in drawing penalties and scoring in the PP opportunities. They are 8/32 (25%) and the Leafs are 4/29 (13.8%).
Penalty kill isn't the strongest suit of both teams, but Philadelphia has the edge here too. They conceded on 6 of 36(83%) kills and Toronto 7 of 24 times(74%).
Philadelphia are a more active team in the shots on goal department, outshooting opponents 32.4-26.4. Toronto is regularly outshot with averages 26.4-31.4. This translates into 3.29-2.71 Goals for/goals against per game for Phila and 3.29-3.29 ratio for Toronto.
Toronto won the last meeting in Philadelphia 3-2 (March 3), but was outscored 26-11 in losing the previous five games there.

Pick: Philadelphia (in 60 mins) @1.91 (BetOnline)
Stake: 100

Result:WON

Pick 176: Vancouver-Minnesota

Vancouver are coming of a 5-1 win against Nashville. The Wild won at Edmonton 2-1 in OT in an emotional win when they managed to level the scores at 0.5 seconds till the end of the match.
On paper this seems like an easy win for the Canucks especially in their home arena considering their last match ended in a one sided 5-0 win for them. Last year the season series went 4-2-0 in favor of Vancouver.
A deeper look into the stats shows a not so big difference in the teams performances so far. 5 on 5 play they are both at around 1.00 goals scored/received ratio. Power play is the stat in which the Canucks have the edge. They've managed to score 7 of 39 attempts. Minnesota on the other hand doesn't have killer stats in he PK area and have 81.8% success rate, but another stat amazed me. Minnesota is first in second in the league in shots blocked and best in the hits department. This translates into a tough defense where nothing comes easy, which can be seen in the goals against, respectful 2.29 per match. If they hang in long enough they can win just about every match. Just like they did in Edmonton.
Today's task might be even easier with the absence of Canucks starting goalie Luongo. For a small stake i would recommend a bet on a surprise here.

Pick: Minnesota @2.9 (incl OT and SO)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 175: New Jersey- San Jose

Today marks the start of a 6 game road trip for the Sharks in which they are supposed to prove the critics that the 1-3-0 start is a fluke. New Jersey have lost their legend Brodeur for 7-10 days and Hedberg gets the nod between the pipes today. God forbid if it came to a situation where he has to go out, on goal goes Kinkaid and everyone in New Jersey is in for a long night. Even this way they better prepare for a lot of action in front of NJ goal. San Jose is the best team in the league in the shots for/shots against department. The second on this list is Detroit. They are 4-0-0 so far and San Jose are 1-3-0. Amazing, right? Provided they limit their dumb mistakes from the last three, which they lost in regulation i am sure San Jose is a clear favorite. The return of Havlat on the second line for today's match will provide a much needed boost too. San Jose's powerplay is also amongst the best in the league (27%). With a good penalty kill tonight's game should be 2 points in the Sharks bag. If the Devils find a way and keep them under 30 shots i can see a chance for them winning it. Either way i see no OT in this one and the clear favs are San Jose.

Pick: San Jose @2.3 (Unibet)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 174: Crvena Zvezda-Cedevita

Crvena zvezda- Cedevita is a nice intro into this weeks basketball in the improving Adriatic league. I am edging towards Crvena zvezda win today. Zvezda are welcoming back the new/old coach Svetislav Pesic and this together with the merger with FMP gives them a lot of competition on every position and a big roster to choose from.
The main advantages for Zvezda on the court today will be the American Adam Morison from LA Lakers, Petar Popovic a center with huge European experience and young Nedovic who wass the only bright spot for Zvezda last year. In charge of neutralizing Draper will be Covic. Draper after the brilliant last season is in much weaker form which was most evident in the Eurobasket.
In conclusion: The big roster and the array of young players adequate for Pesic's style of play will be a huge factor for Zvezda's play this season. The strong defense and the quick transition of play should give Morison a chance to excel and justify the star status.
In addition i have to add that Zvezda's fans Delije are slowly beginning to come back to the matches and the rainy Friday afternoon should help bring a higher attendance in Pionir.
I expect an open match with a lot of open shots, lots of points and attractive points.

Pick: Zvezda @2.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 173: Karlovy Vary- Litvinov

The worst home team in Extraliga meets the worst away team today.
Karlovy Vary are 1-0-1-4 with 13-23 goal difference at home and Litvinov are also 1-0-1-4 with 9-18 goal difference, having lost 4 of the last 5. Two of those loses came to below average teams like Kladno and Mlada Boleslav.
The only thing distinguishing the two teams today might be the good vibe in Vary's squad caused by the arrival of Salficky, Mikeska, Gawryletz and McGregor. After the troubles they had on goal with Mensator being more off than on the ice, they conveniently filled the goalie position with Dusan Salficky, a goalie with immense experience. He has around 92% saves percentage in the first few matches with the team. Michal Mikeska is today's joker in the pocket of Karlovy Vary. He arrived on a loan from Ceske Budejovice and his experience should bring some additional stability to the team. He has 36 matches for the National team. Also today should mark the debut of Canadian defender Gawryletz. McGregor will have to wait for his first appearance because he is still healing an injury.
The first match between these two (played in Litvinov) ended in a Litvinov win after shootout. Vary lead 1-0, Litvinov turned it to 3-1 in their favor but Vary showed some spirit and managed to draw to 3-3.

Pick: Karlovy Vary @2.26 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 172: Toronto Maple Leafs-Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are quite expected one of the worst teams at the start of the season. Their powerplay is atrocious, they are 0/17 so far. Penalty kill is similarly terrible, killing only 80 percent of opponents powerplays. Even in 5 on 5 play they are losing the battles, having a 0.64 ratio of goals scored to goals conceded. All in all the Jets are in for a long season and at best they can hope for a point here and there. Pavelec, their best asset at the moment will start the game on goal. He started with 3.7 GAA and 10 goals received in 3 played matches. The only win the Jets managed to squeeze out came two days ago against the Penguins 2-1 in a very even match.
Maple leafs lost the first match this season against the Avs in OT two days ago. At moments i thought the Leafs will be the clean winners of that one and at moment i thought they will lose by 5. Leafs are one of the best teams in 5/5 play, scoring twice as much as the opposing teams. Today might mark the debut of Gustaffson on goal for Toronto who will surely be motivated to impress if he is to take the number 1 spot.

Pick: Toronto(in 60 min)@2.1 (Expect)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 171: Benatky- Chomutov

Benatky is the surprise pack of the competition this year. They haven't lost in regulation since the 4th round, meaning they've taken points 9 games in a row. From a team that everyone saw as a Liberec farm team they've transformed into a contender for the first places. Lukas Kral is the player with most points in the league overall with 17 (4+13) and the goalie Stejskal is 4th in the league in save percentage with 92.5%. In the last 5 Benatky has a score of 3/1/1/0, both of the draws coming in away matches. At home they have won 4 of the last 5 and all wins came in regulation. Goal difference 18:11. Its noteworthy to mention thet they had shootouts in the last two home matches.
Chomutov have been getting into stride lately. They finally climbed up to a position that represents their ambitions more truthfully and now hold the 2nd place. Their away for has improved a lot too, they have two wins in a row. However, i feel the wins came against below average opponents (Pisek and Litomerice). Before that they played two teams(Jihlava and Olomouc)that are more like today's opponents and lost both. Their away score is 3/0/0/3 with goal difference 18:13 which means they play a lot of tight low scoring games and yet haven't drawn one so far.
The last two matches these two teams played ended in a regulation draw so that is the best indicator of how unpredictable the outcome of this one can be. Whenever that is the case i love to take the higher odds and today that says Benatky. My prediction is Benatky win in OT.

Pick: Benatky (incl OT and SO)@2.25 (Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 170: Edmonton- Nashville

A gift from Nordicbet. Edmonton will at least have a 50/50 shot of winning this one and having odds of 2.95 for them to win it in regular time is a luxury i can't miss.
Edmonton are every bit as good as Nashville and especially in their home arena they will give Nashville some trouble. Edmonton are better in 5 on 5 play (1.00 goals scored/goals received ratio to 0.62 Nashville) and given the fact that Nashville are not good penalty drawers (only 5 min of powerplay per game average) i can safely conclude that our bet is a good one even if it turns out a loser. On top, Nashville has been out-shot by all opponents so far this season. Their shot on goal to shot against ratio is 25.8/34.8. Edmonton is better, but still in minus (29/31.7).
Only trouble that can arise is Edmonton's inability to stay out of the penalty box. They are second worst with 19.7 mins per game and Nashville will punish such behavior, their powerplay is 4/13. Provided they do that and the second line produces the way they've produced so far, Edmonton can win this one easy.

Pick: Edmonton (win in 60 mins)@2.95 (Nordicbet)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 169: Toronto Maple Leafs- Colorado Avalanche

Two of the hottest teams in the NHL meet today in Toronto. Avs going for the fifth win in their road trip and Leafs going for 4-0-0. Not much to separate these two on paper. Last matches for both teams were tough wins, Avs beating the Canadiens in a 6-5 thriller and Leafs coming from behind to beat the Flames 3-2.
Not much separates these two teams. The most critical difference i see goes in favor of the Avs and that is why i am edging on their side. They are out-shooting opponents 33.2-32.2 in average, while the Leafs are getting out-shot by a lot, 26-32. In the matches that the Avs outshot the opponents they've won (2/2). Also, the Avs are much better on the powerplay, scored 6/20 times, which is 30% and the Leafs scored 2/17 times. My guess is the Avs will spend more of the time in powerplay than shorthanded because they have 10 PIM per game while Toronto has 17.
Only trouble might arise in 5/5 play where Toronto seems to outplay any opponent and has twice as much scored as received goals in 5/5. Colorado has a 0.88% rating in this stat. As far as penalty killing goes both teams havent been perfect, but not bad either (around 88%).
The only "handicap" for Avs might be Gigguere in goal instead of Varlamov, but i wouldnt call having Gigguere a handicap no matter what.

Pick: Colorado (+0.75)AH @1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 168: Pittsburgh Penguins- Buffalo Sabres

The Pens are still without their star player Crosby but that doesn't seem to bother them much. They are 3-0-2 to start the season and an unlikely star has risen in the absence of Crosby. James Neal is the goal-scoring leader in the NHL so far with 4 goals and no sign of stopping. Thanks to him the Pens lead in many other stats, one of which total goals scored and assists.Even though they have 2 OT defeats its safe to say they have outplayed all of their opponents by a landslide. The only question is when Crosby returns whether the same chemistry will function the way it did so far. Their last match was a loss to the Capitals in OT in a weird match in which they out-shot the Capitals 41-19!!
The Sabres had a disappointing home debut yesterday when they lost to the Canes, allowing two shorthanded goals. That totally ruined the good mood after the two wins in Europe and i think that will show at least at the beginning of this one. If they don't score the first goal things are not looking good for them. They will field Miller on goal again, who's with a horrible 1-6-0 score and 3.77 GAA against them. On the opposite side Fleury has 5-0-0 with 1.8.
The Pens are dominating the last 10 matches between these two teams with 8-1-1 score.

Pick: Pittsburgh (reg.time win)@ 2.45 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 167: Benatky- Havlickuv Brod

Benatky are the pleasant surprise of the competition this year. With the total of 22 points so far in 12 games they'we managed to gather as much points as they had in the 22 day of competition last year. They are a young team flying up and down the ice and surely will be one of the most effective home teams till the end of the season. The balance so far at home 3-0-1-1, the only loss in regular time coming to Hradec Kralove. Goal difference 13-11 says that nothing comes easy for opponents in Benatky. Their away ballance is even more impressive, given how the 1st division is a home-win heavy league. They've lost only one game in regular time on opponent's ice and that says a lot about the real strength of the team.
Today's opponents Havlickuv Brod both score and concede A LOT of goals. They are sitting 8th with the score 5-1-2-4 with GD of 48-43. They are the Jackyl and Hyde team of Division 1, with a great home score 5-0-1-1 and 35-20 GD and a terrible away score 0-1-1-3 with GD of 13-23. On top of this unpleasant score away come the potential missing players: their first goalie Neruda, defender Pavlik and forwards Vondracek and Nemec.

Pick: Benatky (incl OT and SO) @1.8 (bwin)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 166: Trebic- Usti nad Labem

Trebic so far have been performing far below their abilities and deservedly find themselves at the last place with 8 points and 1-1-3-7 score. As with every young team they need some time to get things going and results are starting to come lately. They've collected points in all of their last 3 home matches and almost created the sensation of the day in Wednesday when they took a two goal lead in the first 1/3 against Chomutov on their ice but didn't hold on to the lead and lost in OT.
Usti are a clear contender for the title this year, beating everyone that comes their way. They top the table with a score of 9-1-0-2 and 55-18 goal difference. At home they have a fort, 7-1-0-0 score and they've had mixed success in the 4 away matches, winning 2 and losing 2 of them. This match marks the beginning of a 4 game road trip for them and i believe this will be a good test of the real strength of the team.
What makes this match interesting and not so day-in-the-office win for Usti is the fact that both matches last year and 3 of the last 6 went in OT. Also, the power-play of Trebic, although they are rock bottom on the table is very good, in fact even better than Usti's with 21.57% conversion. With a few good power-plays Trebic can give Usti a run for their money.

Pick: Trebic(+1.5)AH @1.88 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 165: Buffalo Sabres- Carolina Hurricanes

Its the first home match of the season for the Sabres, after playing their two first matches in Europe. Wins of 4-1 and 4-2 against the Ducks and Kings give them a perfect start of the season, atmosphere should be electric, but there is a sense they are still beatable. Both matches they played in Europe ended with Sabres wins, but paradoxically in both matches they were out-shot by the opponents. Even further, they managed to have a third with 0 shots on goal (!!) against the Ducks in the 3rd. With the week off they might be a bit rusty at the start and sometimes that all the opponent needs to get it going.
Carolina are coming of a big home win against the reigning champs Boston and that will surely show in their attitude towards the match and their confidence. They are usually a very offensive minded team and stats show that at the beginning of the season too. They have same number of shots for and shot against (124, 31 per match). With this number of shots and some solid saves from Ward on goal they can cause a surprise in Buffalo.

Pick: Hurricanes (incl OT and SO) @2.65 (bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 164: Most- Kadan

Most is a team purely dependent on the players that will arrive from the Extraliga teams. Therefore they are highly unpredictable and a nightmare to follow. However, because of the huge loss to Jihlava two days ago and because of the fact that there is one Extraliga match to be played tomorrow i believe their team will be strengthened by more than a few quality players. With them and on home ice Most is capable of beating much stronger opponents than Kadan. Also in the loss to Jihlava, their first goalie at the moment (Valenta) was pulled and that surely must be a wake up call for him because getting pulled in matches in the second division surely isnt going to bring him any starts in Boleslav (the Extraliga club that owns him). All in all i expect much more composed effort from Most and at least a point gained from this match.
Kadan have a lot of trouble on the goalie spot, which is why they borrowed Cikanek from Kladno. They also have a lot of trouble in the other parts of the team. Only 12 players played all of the matches so far this season.

Pick: Most @2.2 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 163: Kadan- Usti nad Labem

Two different worlds meet here. Kadan a play-out contender with problems in the goalie post meets Usti nad Labem, the main candidate for promotion to Extraliga. On goal for Usti Orct with over 95% save average. Anything but a big away win will be a big surprise here.

Pick: Usti (-1.5)@ 2.1 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 162: Trebic- Havlickuv Brod

This match is a regional derby which adds motivation plus to all the players to give their best. One look at the table says a lot about the start of the campaigns of both teams. Havlickuv Brod with a score 4-1-2-3 with 38-35 goal difference and Sumperk dead last with 0-1-2-7 and a goal difference 19-37. All pointing to and easy away win. However, if the table was a merit to go by then everyone would be a winner and bookmakers wouldn't exist.
I expect a hard fought match and i cant really see that big of a difference as the bookies suggest. Trebic at home haven't been half as bad. They've lost two, won after OT one and lost one on penalties. The biggest home loss was against Hradec Kralove 2-4, the same team that thrashed Havlickuv Brod 8-4. In an interview for their website Radek Novak was disappointed by the way things are going this season, even more so because of the fact that they are out-shooting most of their opponents. For example in the last match, Saturday vs Benatky, they lost 4-0 and had 39 shots on goal. In comparison against today's opponent they have 38 more total shots on goal (320-282). This combined with the fact that both their goalies have over 90% save percentage makes this a much tighter match than it seemed at first glance.
The away form of Havlickuv Brod is also terrible: one win after OT, one loss on penalties and two 4 goal difference wipe-out losses. In a match played in August between the two teams, Brod won 3-5, but even the players of Brod were claiming that it was a 50/50 match and that the fact that this is a derby makes it even more tempting for both teams.
With the tight and scrappy match we could expect today i would recommend a home win and very few goals in total.

Pick: Under 5.5 @2.00 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 161: Vitkovice- Mlada Boleslav

Boleslav is riding on a 3 game winning streak and Vitkovice is the perfect team that will end it.
Boleslav have 3 wins in the last three matches and they achieved them against some very tough opposition. They won against Kladno in a shootout, away at Pardubice and at home against Litvinov. The core of the team however is very thin and the key players can't handle the same tempo day in and day out. Even the captain of the team stated that they cant defeat anyone by destroying them and that they have to scrap for every point.
What makes today's trip even tougher is the fact that this is the longest away trip for Boleslav (350km or so) and it comes shortly after another away match at Pardubice. Vitkovice have always had a fortress at home and this year shall be no different. On goal they have the best goalie in the Extraliga Malek and scoring against Vitkovice is very hard (15 goals, best defense in Extraliga). They still might have trouble clicking in attack as they lost Huna and Vrana in the offseason (they accounted for 63 pts. in the regular season, 22 in the playoffs) and Vosatka.
However, for today's match and in today's circumstances i believe all is set up for the team to finally prove that they are a legitimate contender for the top spots.

Pick: Vitkovice @1.7 (Expect)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 160: Sparta Praha- Ocelari Trinec

Sparta enters this match as the worst home team in the league. This is most probably the reason the price was set so high, but the lack of points is due the fact that they only played two matches at home. They also played the NY Rangers as a part of the NHL preseason and lost that match 2-0, being more or less always in contention.
Last years head to head is not very pleasant from Sparta's perspective. They lost both home matches and one in Trinec. However, this shouldn't bother anyone because after the terrible year last year when Sparta didn;t even reach the palyoffs they went through a makeover of the team and released Vyborny and Kratena and instead of them got Jansky and rachunek (two NT players).
For this match they return to their own arena and the fans will finally want to see a convincing performance. They surely are capable of providing that for the fans. They are showing some excellent form lately by beating three very tough teams away from home. A team that defeats Zlin, Budejovice and Pardubice away is surely capable of beating weakened Trinec at home in front of 7000 fans. No players are missing for the team.
Trinec hit form lately too, but today they will have to play without their key players Bonk(4 goals, best scorer so far), Seman and long term injured Varada.

Pick: Sparta 2.25 @bet365
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 159: Most- Beroun

Pick from Czech hockey- second tier.
Beroun seems like a clear favorite here, especially after defeating the two hottest title contenders Chomutov and Usti in the last week. However, one look at the squads both teams will field might change the opinion.
Beroun will miss: Pacovsky, Zalcik, Husak (called up by Sparta, 4/4/3 matches played out of 9 so far). Pacovsky is curently one of the best players in Sparta so a big handicap for them. Kupec, Prindis called up in Karlovy Vary (4/9, 6/9), Poletin, Spelda in Slavia (5/9 & 7/9) and Herman & Strasky (5/9 &1/9). Also they will miss Soldan (8/9), Rubes (6/9), Dolezal (1/9) and long term injured Pavel and Hertl.
Most have been terrible so far and i guess management's patience has finally run out. For today's match they sent 3 of their standard players who were under performing in the 2 Division. Hranac 7/9, Kuncl 7/9 and Vrtek 5/9 are gone and instead of them three Extraliga players will play (Rindos, Maxa, Polak). Only handicap will be the absence of their first goalie Benda, but they've found a nice replacement in the form of Valent (Mlada Boleslav) who is an ex junior Slovakian NT player.
The entry fee for this match is 0 as an apologize for the fans for the performance against Usti.

Pick: Most -1.5 @3.5 (bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 158: Armenia- Macedonia

It is silly to take the bookies opinion in this match and go with the home win. Several factors forced me to say this. Armenia, though being the surprise pack in these qualifiers, haven't really been that amazing as much as the opposition was weak. Out of the 4 wins they have so far 2 came against Andorra and 2 against Slovakia. Even though i respect Slovakia i can't really place them in the very best group of European teams. In the reverse fixture they almost shocked Macedonia in Skopje but couldn't hold on and conceded in the 90th minute on a questionable penalty. This match came as a shock to everybody in Macedonia, but i am sure the expectations will be adjusted now and they will take the match way more seriously.
On Macedonian side a couple of regulars are missing (Pandev, Tasevski, Naumovski, Ibraimi) but considering the way all 4 of them played recently that will be more of a benefit then a loss. The team was relying heavily on them and they dissapointed each and every time for the last few matches. Instead of them 4 young players with the will to impress will go out and give their 110%. Lead by young Trickovski who's in the form of his life (APOEL), supported by the experience of the older players (Noveski, Popov) i believe Macedonia will be at least 50/50 favorite to win this match.

Pick: Macedonia(+1) AH @1.65 (188bet)
Stake: 100

Pick 157: C.Budejovice- V. Zizkov

Last 16 teams are left in the Czech Ondrasovka cup. This is a round that is played in 2 legs so there will be a rematch in Prague too.
Budejovice are in an upward form after the change of coach Kotrba and have no missing players for this match. Today will mark the debut of their new keeper, Andrej Delac, a Croatian keeper, part of the NT. He actually declined the callup from the NT just so he can prepare better for upcoming matches. Budejovice will go out with their strongest lineup for this match since the NT matches are coming and players will have time to rest until the new league round. Last match Budejovice played ended 0-0 away at Hradec Kralove and surely it is a sign of better results to come because they could have just as easily won the game.
Zizkov have two key players missing: Slodowy and Nestorovski who were called up by their U21 national teams. Their ambition for this match is to go out with a playable result in the rematch so i am guessing a minimal defeat with a scored goal wouldnt hurt them too much.

Pick: Budejovice @2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 156: Vardar- Skendija

OMG how much wronger can bet365 be on this one. I am quite sure they are sleeping here and that they will correct this mistake shortly. However as things stand this is a super awesome value bet.
Vardar is a club with the largest tradition in Macedonia and every Macedonian is proud of it. This goes so far that they even returned the club administratively in the First division after the relegation last year by buying out the rights from a newly promoted club (Miravci). After that the club has undergone a large transformation and a lot of the stars that left to play in other countries returned to help. Results came instantly and Vardar is second without a loss (6-2-0) and a goal difference 10-3.
Skendija is a club lead by ethnic Albanians and most of the player that play there are Albanians. With the political situation in Macedonia this should be an added bonus for both teams to give their best. However, seing how Skendija struggled to score at home against Ohrid and Bregalnica i cant really see them scoring on the national arena with thousands of Vardar fans behind their team.

Pick: Vardar @1.9 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 155: Napredok-Teteks

This should be a tough matchup but i definitely see Napredok taking this one. They have been successfully edging out opponents at home for a long time and that is the only factor keeping them in the league for quite a while. As a bonus they are getting their best player Markoski back in the lineup after serving a suspension in the last round. He is a heavily underrated midfielder capable of deciding a match with a 30 meter shot. Also with him back in the lineup i am sure they will be dictating most of the play and Teteks will try and counterattack.

Pick: Napredok @1.75 (Sportingbet)
Stake: 75

Result: WON
Note: I also have to mention this. The player returning from suspension Markoski received another red card, while in the lead 3-0. He as dumb as a bag of hammers. Expect Napredok to lose next round no matter who they are playing.

Pick 154: Lechia Gdansk- Belchatow

Two teams that are atrocious away from home. Belchatow with league worst 0-0-4 away and Lechia with 1-0-4. However Lechia at home seem to be a tough nut to crack. They are at 1-2-0 with a 3-2 goal difference.
I see todays match supporting these trends and i see a tight home win with only a few goals scored on both sides.

Pick: Gdansk @1.95 (Expect)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 153: Eintracht Frankfurt- Union Berlin

Eintracht is in excellent form and is surely on track to return to the Bundesliga. They have a 5-4-0 score with 23-9 goal difference. After 3 consecutive draws at home they finally broke the spell on 16.9 by beating Hansa 4-1.
Union is more of a home team with 4-0-1 score at home and a 0-2-2 score away from home. They usually play a more defensive style away from Berlin and that hasnt proven as a successful away tactic for them.

Pick: Eintracht(-1) AH @1.77 (Sbobet)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 152: Shakthar- APOEL

Shakhtar lost the first round match against Porto after leading 1-0. They basically paid the price for trying to defend a tiny lead in a tough away match and i am sure they have taken out some lessons from that. Today's opponent isn't the same caliber as Porto and will surely allow them more space and opportunities than Porto. Not that they are bad or anything, its just that the combination of a long trip away to a tough place to play at and the sense of not being in a do-or-die match might make them enter the matchup a bit too relaxed. And that little moment might be enough for Shakhtar to run away with this one.

Pick: Shakhtar (-1) AH @2.1 (Dafabet)
Stake: 100

Pick 151: IFK Ystads- Helsingborg

Swedish handball alsvenskan. Ladbrokes are ridiculously out of synch with the rest of the bookies and are offering Ystads at 5.00, while the average odds are 3.6. Must take, no matter what.

Pick: Ystads @5.00 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 25

Result: LOST

Pick 150: Worcester Warriors- Harlequin

The handicap has moved from +2.5 to +5.5 on Worcester, but Will Hill still have it at 2.5 so i will go where the money are here and take Harlequin.

Pick: Harlequin (-2.5) @1.8 (Will Hill)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 149: Israel- Poland

A pick from the European volleyball championships for women, based purely on the fact that its a good buy. Nordic bet are way of the mark here and still are offering the total at 130.5 while all of the other bookies are much higher.

Pick: Over 130.5 @1.85 (nordicbet)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 148: Morecambe-Bristol Rovers

Morecambe started the season in sensational form with a 6-2-1 score with 19:5 goal difference. The only defeat came in the first round against Barnet and they havent looked back ever since. Its true that they are (quite untraditionally) better away than they are at home but a 2-1-1 score with 9:2 goal difference is hardly something to be ashamed of. Besides the aforementioned loss to Barnet, they also drew 1-1 with Bradford and defeated Crawley (5-1-3 so far) 6-0(!!) and Aldershot (2nd best in the away table).
Bristol play hot and cold, they were able to defeat Shrewsbury 1-0, but also lost to the likes of Aldershot and Crawley. Seing how they lost 4-1 to a team Morecambe defeated 6-0 i cant understand why the odds on the home win are where they are today.

Pick: Morecambe @2.25 (12bet)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 147: Drammen- Haslum

Excellent opportunity on Pinnacle as they seem to have pushed the spread a bit too high here. This match opened with a total of 56.5 and now its at 64.

Pick: Under 64 goals @1.97 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: VOID

Pick 146: Eslovs-Hasto

This is a match from the Swedish handball Alsvenskan league. Purely picked on the basis that Ladbrokes are asleep on this one and still offering 2.3 for the away win, while the rest of the bookies are offering it at 2.00.
When a great product is offered at a great price you have positive expectation every time you buy it even if you dont know how to use it. To simplify it: You've never used nor will use product X. You have almost perfect information on product X from all the sellers in the area and you've found a seller that is selling it at 70% the average price. You buy the product. The seller realizes he made a mistake in the pricing and corrects it. You have a 30% margin in which you can sell the product and profit. Sounds easy, right:)?

Pick: Hasto @2.3 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 145: Australia- USA

A match from the rugby world cup. The margin on this match has moved into 61.5 which is a ridiculous spread even if the difference in quality is as big as it is. I really dont see a point in Australia pressing to win by a huge difference once they secure the win here.

Pick: USA +61.5 @2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 144: Spain- Sweden

Staying with handball, this time women's. This match is a perfect example why you should follow the trends and have a lot of bookmaker options because a small gain i odds can make a huge difference in the long run.
This match opened with a spread of 52.2 total and this has diminished into 48.5 and i believe it might fall even further, half or maybe one more point down. However, since the spread is far below what i expect the outcome to be, i will take it now.

Pick: Over 48.5 @1.98 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 143: Sandefjord- Drammen

Every time these two teams have met in the past there has been a lot of goals. The last 5 matches between them went over 60. Spread is at 60.5 at the moment and i feel this is a gift from the bookies, considering that the original spread was at 66.

Pick: Over 60.5 @2.00 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 142: Gil- Chardy

Just because Betsafe seem to be sleeping at the moment i am going to take this match. They still have Chardy at 1.95 while the rest of the bookies go as low as 1.6(bwin).
I am not so sure Chardy is that big of a favorite to deserve the 1.6, but 1.95 is simply too much. I am saying this only because Chardy is comming back from an injury and had a rough stretch at the US hardcourts. Clay is more of a home for him so i think he shouldnt have a problem against Gill.

Pick: Chardy @1.95(Betsafe)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 141: Brantford- TFC Academy

Canadian CSL league match. Not really sure whats going on here but the odds for Unders are rising since the moment they were published. My personal pick will be Under 3.5 goals at a whopping 1.95. Only this afternoon the odds on that were 1.60 and they've been on the rise ever since.
The teams taking part here aren't the biggest scorers. Brantford has 27 goals scored in 22 matches and TFC has 28 in 19 matches played. The last 4 matches TFC has played were under 3.5.

Pick: Under 3.5 @1.95(bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 140: Denver Broncos- Cincinnati Bengals

Denver were a bigger favorite when the odds came out with odds in the low 1.40s. Market support fell down and now they can be found at around 1.55. This subsequently dropped the spread at a very reasonable -3 which i'd be more than happy to get at the prices offered.

Pick: Broncos (-3)AH @1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 139: Skovde- Guif

A match from the Swedish handball league. Bookmakers set the line at first at 62.5 goals. There are two problems with this thing. First 60 is a psychological line over which not many people are willing to bet, even though the game is , at least on paper a favorite to reach the 60 goals mark. Second, handball is not a heavily followed sport and if a lot of money go in on one side there is no chance the bookie will balance the bets on both sides in time, unless they radically slash the margin and leave some cushion between in which they hope the match wont finish.
Todays match is the perfect example. The spread got slashed to 58.5 and i'd be more than willing to take the overs.
In the last 10 matchups (that's all i could find) between these two teams the total has gone over the mark of 56.5.

Pick: Over 58.5 @1.95 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 138: Saracens- Warriors

A match from the Aviva premiership, Saracens handicap moved from 3.5 to 16.5. Ladbrokes were the first to go out with the spread and i think they are very good at handicaping rugby. That makes my decision a no-brainer after the spread moved to 16.5. I am going to trust their first projection of the game and bet on the Warriors.

Bet: Warriors +16.5 @2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result:WON

Pick 137: Elda Prestigia- Metalurg

This is a match from the female handball Champions League. Overwhelming support has come on Metalurg's side since the odds have been published. This resulted in the spread moving from -0.5 to +2.5. That i can understand, as some influential tipsters have been on Metalurgs side early. But one thing i cant understand is why the total moved from 51.5 to 46.5. If anything, the strong confidence behind Metalurg should reinforce the fact that there will be a lot of goals scored. This way i feel we are getting another bargain from Pinnacle.

Pick: Over 46.5 goals @1.94 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 136: Vitesse- Roda

Ladbrokes seem to be the slowest bookie to react to market changes lately. While there is a strong downward trend in bookies odds all over the place Ladbrokes are still sticking to 2.00 for the home win here. The average home odds in other bookies is under 1.90 with odds ranging from 1.79 to 1.91.
Form wise Vitesse has been flawless at home so far, wining 2 of 2. They are coming of a rough stretch with two consecutive defeats against AZ and Ajax. Though those two losses are nothing to be ashamed off, the easiness of the victories for the home teams must have set all types of alarms off in the squad. They should go out fighting today. Watch out for Bony, he's most likely to score from the home team.
Roda is more of a home team, both their wins came at their home pitch. They've beat Twente and Groningen at home, but also suffered a defeat against Walwijk. On top of that they've lost both their away matches convincingly 3-0 and 3-1 against Utrecht and Feyenord.

Pick: Vitesse @2.00 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 135: Sokolov- Sparta Prague B

Sokolov are a good team but having home win odds at 1.5 is just ridiculous. Sparta B has only three points but they were missing all of the U19 national team players for most of the matches so far. Just a reminder, Czech Republic finished that tournament 2nd, losing to Spain in the final. This means some good players came back in the team and surely they will be more competitive than this far in the competition. This match starts in less than 30 min so hurry up.

Pick: Sparta (+1)AH @1.86 (Allyoubet)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 134: Racing-Metro92- Clermont

This is a Top 14 match and its found its way on the blog because there is a discrepancy in what Ladbrokes are offering in comparison to the rest of the bookies. As i was lurking around i noticed the general trend was the spread moving from 6.5 to 8.5 and Ladbrokes were offering both sides at 1.9 with a spread of 6.0. Needless to say i had to try and capitalize on that. Just beware, this is an european handicap, if home team wins by 6 bet is lost.

Pick: Racing (-6.0)@1.9 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 133: Zahlavova-Strycova -Hlavackova

I was waiting for this one to hit 2.00 to take it. I am totally happy to take a player that is 2-0 in the head to head matchup (one of the matches played this year) at odds of 2.0. To be fair i didn't expect the odds to get that high provided she started at 1.80, but i guess the market disagrees with me. If there is a reason for these odd odds movement beyond my knowledge than so be it. But if everything is ok with Zahlavova than these odds are a steal.

Pick: Zahlavova-Strycova @2.04 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 132: Montpellier- Istres

This is a match from the French handball championship. I believe the spread got overly inflated and Istres should be able to pull a win with 12.5 added to their score. Over the last 4 matches where Montpellier was playing Istres at home they've won once but only once managed to cover a 12.5 spread in 2008. All teams in the French league can play good handball and on a given day anyone can beat anyone (or make the fav work for the win, for all we care:)).

Pick: Istres +12.5 @1.85 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 131: Spain- Macedonia

I understand that Macedonia is a big outsider in this match, but a 18.5 spread is just too much. The biggest loss Macedonia suffered for the duration of the tournament was by 5 points to Montenegro in overtime. The only other loss was against Russia with a weird 3-pointer in the last second of the match. Now, all of the sudden a 19 point spread is set in the semifinals of the championship.
I don't really see how Macedonia can win this game, but they've kept every single match they've played so far tight and if they manage to do that at least for 3 quarters today the spread shouldn't be covered by Spain at the end. With their defense as tight as it was against Lithuania this should be a low scoring match.
There is an emotional factor as well as the quality factor involved. The whole country is standing behind its players and a blowout victory will be a huge disappointment and the players know that.
As far as Spain is concerned they've had a smooth ride so far, with the only hiccup coming against Turkey in a meaningless match. Out of all the matches they've played though there were only three blowout victories that would cover today's spread. One was against Great Britain, second against Serbia and third against France, where most of France's best players were rested.

Pick: Macedonia +18.5 @1.8 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 130: Paok- Tottenham

Friedel, Bale, Kaboul, Gallas, Dawson, King, Assou-Ekotto, Jenas, Bentley, Huddlestone, Lennon, Parker, Van der Vaart, Modric, Kranjcar, Rose, Sandro, Pienaar, Adebayor and Defoe. Am i listing Tottenham's team for today? No! I am listing their players that will not play in Greece. With odds of 2.6 available for PAOK i would be a fool not to take this opportunity. Under 2.5 is also a good bet as PAOK are missing two strikers.

Pick: PAOK @2.63
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 129: Erakovic- Falconi

This match has caught my attention due to the odd price movement. Erakovic was heavily favored when the odds came out with odds as low as 1.60-70 and then all of a sudden a lot of money came in on Falcone and shifted the odds in favor of her. Now you can find Erakovic at odds above 2 and i surely believe she has at least 50-50 shot at this match. She showed some stellar performances on hard court this year by beating Azarenka, Arvidson and Vesnina and showed some really poor performances by losing to Lucic. With that Jackyl and Hyde attitude it sure is good to put the money on odds above 2.0 and hope the right Erakovic shows up.

Pick: Erakovic @2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 128: Vaduz- Delemont

Seems a lot of money went in on Vaduz here. The odds for the home win plummeted and there is absolutely no value left in betting on the home team. In fact, the dropping odds even made the away team the nicer bet proposition.

Pick: Delemont(+1.5) AH@1.80 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: Lost

Pick 127: Ciudad Real- Valladolid

This is a match from the Spanish handball league. I chose it because the spread moved from -5 to -8 and 9 goals difference is huge. I don't believe there is a team in the Spanish league that will be losing matches by that margin on regular basis.

Pick: Valladolid (+8)AH @1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 126: Cleveland Browns- Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure how long these odds are going to stay like this so pound on it until they are there. The usual line set up by the bookies is -6.5 and Victor Chandler are giving them at -3.5 and odds of 1.87 for the home win. Whether they claim they are better at capping the NFL games or they just made a mistake remains to be seen.

Pick: Cleveland (-3.5) @1.87 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 125: Nordsjaelland- Sonderjyske

This is a match from the Danish Jack&Jones Handball league, which i know nothing of. However i know something about moving odds and spreads and what that means. In this match the spread went from +3.5 to -3.5. This in terms means that a LOT of money came in on the home side and the bookies are having a last ditch attempt to generate some income on the away side. With the spread changing 7 units i'd be more than happy to give them some action. It can't be that they set up the line that terribly the first time. I think they've overreacted on some rich guy (or a group following an important tipster) entering the market on the home win with a lot of money and overkilled the spread on the opposite side.

Pick: Sonderjyske (+3.5) @2 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 124: Bray- St.Patricks

Bray has nowhere to go in the table and a lot of missing players, most of them in deffence. D. Massey, A. Mitchell, D. O'Connor, C. Shields, G. Dempsey and M. Gregg. All of them have over 20 starts in the 27 matches they've played this season. St. Patricks will be missing one forward (Daly). The rest of the crew is in good shape and ready to battle for europa league spots in the last two matches.

Pick: St.Patrics @1.8 (dOXXBET)
Stake: 100

RESULT:WON

Pick 123: Dukla Prague- Hradec Kralove

I see nothing between these two teams in this match. Details will decide the winner and i am sure Hradec will be the more creative team in the match. That didn't always work out good for them in the past as they have lost many matches where they outplayed the opponent and lost. Best example is a pre-season match between these two where Hradec was the one playing, but Dukla was the one scoring and they ended up winning 3-1. However, Hradec is comming out of yet another spell of matches played in that fashion, where the lost 3 times in a row and were playing equally or better than the opponent and after these three matches they had two weeks off to rethink things and regroup and i think they will return today with a fresher look and score a few.

Pick: Hradec Kralove(+0)AH @2.08 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

RESULT:LOST

Pick 122: Mypa- Marienhamn

I was surprised to see the odds above 2.00 on the home win here. Mypa is in good form, having won the last two games and Marienhamn is in atrocious form, having lost 4 of the last 5. At home Mypa are hot and cold with 5-1-5 score and Marienhamn are a terible away team with 2-1-9, goal difference 7-19 and lost the last 5 away matches.

Pick: Mypa win @2.06 (pinnacle)
Stake: 100

RESULT: LOST

Pick 121: Lithuania- Serbia

These odds are way too good to miss. Serbia is at 2.17 and i see no particular reason why Lithuania is to be treated as a favorite here.It will all come down to who picks up more rebounds and i think Lithuania is an underdog there, even more so after losing their center Petravicius to injury. Serbia has won all the games in which they out-rebounded their opponents and lost the only one where they lost in this stat (against France).

Pick: Serbia @2.17 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

RESULT: LOST

Pick 120: Isner- Simon

Simon had an emotionally draining match in the last round against Del Potro and i find betting against players winning those matches very profitable. Isner on the other hand had a smooth way to this round, most games played against Baghdatis in the first round. He is in great form, winning the tournament in Winston Salem last week and playing the best tennis in his career. American hardcourts seem to be extracting an extra effort of all US players and i wouldnt be surprised if we saw Isner in the semifinal, maybe even further.

Pick: Isner(-3.5) @2.75 (paddypower)
Stake: 75

RESULT: LOST

Pick 119: Austria-Turkey

Serdar Kesimal, Selçuk Inan , Nuri Sahin , Emre Belezoglu , Hamit Altintop and Gökhan Gönül are missing in Turkey's squad. The rest of the team, at least the players that play in the home championship don't have any competitive matches under their belts this season. Austria is in a slump, but has been scoring a lot of goals even when losing the match. Concidering how generous the odds on them are this is surely worth a try. There's a downward trend in the HW odds from about 3.4 to around 3.0 where they are now.

Pick: Austria @3.2 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 118: Bosnia- Belarus

Bosnia is a big favorite here, for some apparent reason, but what everyone seem to forget is that Belarus can stifle a match like there is no tomorrow. France made sure of this and basically most of their opponents experienced this in their previous matches. Their goal difference is 6-4 after 8 matches and this probably sums it up the best.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.83 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result:WON

Pick 117: Macedonia- Finland

Macedonia has a very good front-court with Antic, Gecevski, Cekovski and Samardziski and nothing comes easy in the paint against them. However, the last two wins against Croatia and Greece might be a bit emotionally draining and they might enter this match a bit rusty. If the spread was 7 or more i might have been tempted to take Finland, but this way i think the Under 148.5 might be a better alternative. The only real high scoring match Finland played was against Croatia 84-79. Yesterdays blow out against Bosnia isn't a realistic representation of their offensive strength since Bosnia took out their best players in order for them to be fresh for Croatia. Had it been close, the total would have been much lower.

Pick: Under 148.5 @1.9 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 116: Israel- Latvia

I was surprised to see that this match is expected to be the highest scoring one of the day. Both teams have been terrible so far and the maximum any of them scored was 80 (Israel against Serbia). With the spread at 161.5 both teams are expected to reach that mark. For that to happen someone will have to generate a lot of offense for both teams and i just cant see that happening looking at both rosters. The way i see it this will be an ugly game with the winner decided by a longish run in the third or fourth.

Pick: Under 161.5 @1.9(Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 115: Swindon- Rotheram

Swindon was the hot favorite for the league before it started but after the first round the wheels fell totally off. They lost the next four matches after an opening win and emotions are very heated in the squad. This culminated during this weeks match against Southampton where the manager Di Canio had a huge fight with the best striker Clarke and told media he wont be selecting him in the squad two weeks after buying him from QPR.
I've heard an interview with Di Canio where he praises the way they create chances and the only thing missing is the finishing. Hopefully with the change upfront realization of chances will increase too. The team (and subsequently the odds) is not that bad as it seems at the moment and surely a televised match might be the ignition spark to get the team going.

Pick: Swindon (-0.25)AH @2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result:3-2

Pick 114: Kunitsyn- Melzer

Kunitsyn had a wonderful come-back win yesterday when he managed to overcome a 0-2 deficit and win against Bachinger. Melzer is a totally different animal, but i still think they are more or less evenly matched and that we're in for a long one here.
Their only head to head adds to the credibility of this theory because there was virtually nothing between those two and the match ended 6-4 3-6 6-3 in favor of Kunitsyn. However, this was 2008 (on clay) so we shouldn't put that much emphasis on it. Either way i still think Kunitsyn is good enough for a set here, maybe even more.

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @1.72 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 3-2

Pick 113: Andora- Armenia

I like the odds on the away team here. They have played some great matches and got unlucky in a few crucial moments, otherwise they would have been in contention for one of the top places, however impossible that might seem. They lost 2 points in the 94th minute in Macedonia on a really questionable penalty. Also lost to Ireland at home with a goal in the 76th minute and beat Slovakia at home and drew away with Russia.
Their oponent today is Andora, a team they beat 4-0 at home and should have no problem beating again easily. In total they have score 5-1-0 with them with a goal difference 17-2.

Pick: Armenia -1.5 @2.07 (188bet)
Stake: 100

Result: WIN

Pick 112: Dolgopolov- Cipolla

Cipolla has defeated some powerful opposition in the previous few weeks on the way to this match. Clement, Ilhan, Sweeting, Nishikori are all on that list and i am not sure Dolgopolov can defeat most of them in straight sets. They've met once before in a tight match, Dolgopolov won 2-1. From all of these facts i deducted there will be a few tight sets in this one and i will pick the Over 3.5 sets as my bet. You can also try the "Tiebreak in the match" market, where "Yes" is offered at a price over 2.

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @2.2(Bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: 3-2

Reflections on August

August sucked!! Bigtime!! It wiped out all the profits and left me questioning myself even though i know in most of the picks i didn't do as terrible as the results might seem. Since one time radical exceptions from the predicted path are not uncommon i am going to write this month off to variance and promise i will do better preparation of the picks. It seems that some picks, when i look back retrospectively were a bit forced and those things don't come out well when you push it.
I will also try my best to find experts from different leagues and regions and occasionally add some of their tips on the blog, of course if they grant me permission to do that. This process of selecting them might be a bit longish so please have patience with that. Some of their tips might occur during September, but that is not 100% sure.
Good luck to all and lets kick some ass in September!

Pick 111: Atletico Madrid- Osasuna

Cant see why the odds went so high on Atletico here. They started their season early with the Europa league qualifications and they will surely be more ready for the season campaign then Osasuna at the moment. The handicap -0.5 at 1.78 is just too tempting.

Pick: At.Madrid (-0.5) @1.78 (dafabet)
Stake: 100

Result: Lost

Pick 110: Slask Wroclaw- Widzew Lodz

Slask have an excellent start to the campaign (3-1-0) with 8:2 goal difference. Lodz on the other hand have a 1-3-0 score and 3:2 goal difference. Taking all of this into consideration i expect a very tight match with one goal making the difference and i expect that goal to be scored by Slask.

Pick: Slask(-0.5) @2.1 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: Lost

Pick 109:Helsingborg- Orebro

Both teams high scoring, both teams in form. They should create a lot of scoring chances and i see no problem in this one reaching the 2.5 mark early.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.92 (Dafabet)
Stake: 50

Result: Lost

Pick 108: FC Copenhagen- Silkeborg

If we look at the trends only, this one should be borderline 2 or 3 goals match. However, FC Copenhagens home matches shouldn't be projected with the same parameters like other games because of FC's abbility to score a lot of goals on a weaker opposition. Therefore i am going with the over2.5 here.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.67 (pinnacle)
Stake: 100

Result:Won

Pick 107: Ceske Budejovice-Jablonec

I never liked betting on Budejovice but the odds on them are just too tempting. They are a whole different team at home than they are away. its true they lost the first two home matches, but they lost it to Olomouc and Sparta and that is nothing to be ashamed of. Pressure is rising on coach Kotrba and surely this is a good moment for his boys to shine, otherwise he's gone.
Statistically looking Jablonec has won only 2 of 14 matches in Budejovice and that is why i think the AH +0.5 on Budejovice is rock solid.

Pick: Budejovice +0.5 @(2.05) Dafabet
Stake:100

Result:Lost

Pick 106: Znojmo- Banik Sokolov

Both teams play tight games with the winner decided by one goal. I see this one falling into that scenario. Its either Znojmo scoring first and defending the lead or Banik scoring and defending even if Znojmo equalizes because an away point is an away point.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.95 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-1

Pick 105:Mattersburg- Innsbruck

I think its finally the time for Mattersburg's first win. They are really not as bad as the table suggests. They score quite a lot and even when they lose they lose by the odd goal only. Innsbruck is more of a draw team and will surely be happy with another one today. However, with odds nearing 3, Mattersburg is the clear choice here.

Pick: Mattersburg @2.9 (5Dimes)
Stake: 50

Result:1-1

Pick 104: Oxford- Aldershot

Brilliant odds on Oxford here. They are playing against poor Aldershot, who lost their last three matches and the odds are still above 2. I am taking this not so much because of Oxford's strength, but because of Aldershots weakness.

Pick: Oxford @2.15(Victor Chandler)
Stake: 50

Result: 1-1

Pick 103: Luton- Braintree

Luton were unlucky not to promote last year and sure as hell wont miss out on that opportunity this season. Though Braintree have started out good this season i dont see a way how they can get out of this with a point.

Pick: Luton(-1) AH @2.03 (Victor Chandler)
Stake: 50

Result: 3-1

Pick 102: Preston- Nots County

Nots County have played all of their matches this season over 2.5 goals. Preston are not that much of a 3+ team but they showed in the first round they can play big scoring matches when they played 4-2 against Colchester. Maybe better to take it in play (if it is an in-play option) at odds of 2, but is till like it at 1.83.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.83(Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-0

Pick 101:Ohrid- Vardar

Howleeee crap are these odds wrong or what? Ohrid is my hometown team, i've played in Ohrid while they were in the second league and i know most of the guys that play there currently. I can surely tell you they do not have as much chances on winning or taking a point in this one as the bookmakers give them. Lots of missing players and in general not a very good start to the season makes them a heavy underdog against a revamped Vardar. At these odds this is a steal.

Pick: Vardar @1.83 (Victor Chandler)
Stake: 100

Result: 0-2

Pick 100: Hartberg- BW Linz

Hartberg are the worst team in Austria 2 and it will be a miracle if they manage to string two wins together after winning against FC Lustenau last week. Odds on the away team seem more than generous and i am sure there's a lot of value on the away win.

Pick: BW Linz(+0) AH @2.25 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-1

Pick 99: First Vienna- Altach

Odds on First Vienna for this one are stunning if we take into consideration that Altach has lost the last two matches against Grodig and BW Linz. First Vienna is an inconsistent team with score of 3-3-3 and are undefeated in the last three matches.

Pick Vienna (+0.5) AH @2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-1

Pick 98: Darlington- Alfreton

Darlington seem to be a tight team with goal difference 1-1 after three matches. Alfreton on the other hand is leaking goals left and right, having only one point out of three matches and a goal difference 2-9. At the given odds this is amazing value.
Anthony Wilson, Alfretons best scorer will be out for this one. Here's an interview with Alfertons coach after the last game.

Pick: Darlinton win @1.78
Stake: 100

Result: 1-1

Pick 97:Winterthur- Wohlen

Two underish teams meet in an overish league. That brings the odds at very high levels. For this one we only need to be right 43% of the time to be long term positive. I like those odds.

Pick: Under 2.5 @2.33 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: Another 90th minute loss 1-2

Pick 96: Orebro- Mjallby

Orebro, one of the hottest teams in Sweden is meeting in-form Mjallby. Odds on 3+ are over 2.00 so i cant let this slip by. Both teams score a lot of goals and receive more than they would like so 3+ seems fair at odds of 2.13.

Pick: Over 2.5 @2.13 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-2

Pick 95: Bohemians- Ceske Budejovice

After selling Nitriansky during the week to Slavia, Budejovice pretty much showed that they have no bigger ambitions than fighting for survival till the very end of the league. They play rather slowish football with Otepka in the middle dictating their play. This wont be easy to do in Prague because Bohemians are very young and very physical team who fight for every possession.

Pick: Bohemians(-1) @2.54(Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Reslut:2-1

Pick 94: Sparta Prague- Hradec Kralove

After messing it up in Romania Sparta will want to give their home fans something to cheer for. Anything else but a strong victory here will send them spiraling downward with the European season very probably coming to the end next week.

Pick: Sparta (-1.5) AH @2.04 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result:1-0

Pick 93: Sao Caetano- Vitoria

This match is a total 33%-33%-33% in my mind. Bookies seem to disagree slightly, thus giving us some value on any variation of bets on Vitoria. I am going to go with the Asian Handicap(+0) on Vitoria at 2.42 (a.k.a Draw-no-bet).

Pick: Vitoria+0 (AH) @2.42 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: Another 90th minute equalizer against us 2-2

Pick 92: Parana- Sporting Recife

An excellent opportunity for Parana to get back to winning ways against a team that lost 4 of the last 5. The odds are extremely inflated due to Parana's inconsistency of late, but to have odds above 2 on them is a pure gift.

Pick: Parana @2.03(188bet)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-2

Pick 91:Lazio- Rabotnicki

Main reason why i am playing this is because i think Rabotnicki can squeeze one goal in here. Lazio is far from being in competitive match-playing form and i think that should prove crucial. Rabotnicki are a good counter-attacking team.

Pick: Rabotnicki (+3.5)@1.32 (bet365)
Stake:75

Result:6-0 :)

Pick 90: Besiktas- Alania

Purely speculative bet based on the fact that Besiktas haven't played a competitive match in eternity and many regulars are missing.

Pick: Alania(+1) AH @2.67(bet365)
Stake: 50

Result:3-0

Pick 89: Steaua Bucharest- CSKA Sofia

Any time a Bulgarian and Romanian team play against each other i am inclined to think something fishy is going on. Hence, the odds on Steaua at 1.9 seem ludacris if we take into consideration only football elements. They are a much better team and should win this one easily. Not taking these odds would be silly. Even if the match turns out a total bust e.g. 1-0 half time, 2-3 end result, at least i'll be able to say "i knew it":).

Pick: Steaua @1.91 (eurobet)
Stake: 75

Result:2-0

Pick 88:Zestafoni- Club Brrugge

Zestafoni will play their match in Tbilisi, so home field advantage is just on paper for this one. Its true they are more used to playing on crappy pitches than Brugge, but if its at all playable Brugge will have the edge in this one. However, Brugge has been not the best backing option when it comes to away games. They lost 1-0 to Karabaq in Azerbaijan last round. Its true they were defending a 4-1 lead, but still you would expect more from Brugge. With one striker missing today i cant see them putting many goals past the Georgians.

Pick: Under 2.75 @1.8 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result:3-3!!

Pick 87: Vaslui- Sparta Prague

I am boarding this train as early as possible as the odds are going to go one way only: down! Sparta in top form and Vaslui missing more than half the team. At 2.50 this is AWESOME value. I know away matches in Europe are tough and the away team is happy with the draw, but this one smells like a wipeout. Time for Vaslui to learn about Kweuke's abilities as a scorer.

Pick: Sparta @2.5(Ladbrokes)
Stake: 100

Result:2-0

Pick 86: Milwall-Peterborough

Milwall had an unlucky draw at Reading, when reading scored both their goals in 86th and 89th minute. At home they won easy 2-0 against Nothingam. Peterborough won at home and lost their away match. I think this will be the case for most of the matches Peterborough will play this year. If they were to get to a safe mid-table position matches home are a must-win. Awwy matches are a bonus, and against an in-form Milwall chances of them bringing something home are slim.

Pick: Milwall @1.83(Paddypower)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-2

Pick 85: Maccabi Haifa- Genk

After squeezing through in the last round against Partizan i think the time has come for Genk to finish their journey in the Champions League. Not so much because of the strength of their opponent but because of the mess the suddenly find themselves in. The coach is leaving in a sudden move, their key playmaker (De Bruyne) is injured and one of the strikers (Ogunjimi) wont be able to play too.
Macabi also with troubles of their own, missing two key defenders and signing one just before the match, i think should find the strength to pull a few past Genk and hope not to concede more. Seeing how Genk miss their scoring core i think defending shouldnt be a problem.

Pick: Maccabi win @2.02 (Dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result:2-1

Pick 84: Crystal Palace- Coventry

This is from BBC.com:

"Midfielder Darren Ambrose is a major doubt for Palace after suffering a knee injury during Saturday's 2-0 win against Burnley.
Strikers Glenn Murray (ankle) and Steffen Iversen (hamstring) are sidelined along with defender Nathaniel Clyne (foot).
Coventry are without the suspended Carl Baker and a number of injured players.
Gary Deegan, Clive Platt, Richard Wood, Freddy Eastwaood, Ben Turner and Jordan Clarke are all unavailable."
The sides met three times last season. Each registered a home win in the league, while Coventry prevailed 2-1 in the third round of the FA Cup.
The Eagles have failed to score in only one of their last 15 league engagements with Coventry.
All seems to be going in favor of Palace, so why not give it a go at 2.25.

Pick: C.Palace @2.25 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Result:2-1

Pick 83: Inter Turku- Marienhamn

Marienhamn is currently 2nd worst team form-wise in the Finnish league. Inter Turku has won the last 3 home matches with 2 or 3 goals difference. The guys at pinnacle must have fallen on their heads when pricing this.

Pick: Inter Turku @1.58 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-0

Pick 82: Jablonec- Bohemians 1905

I was expecting much higher odds on Jablonec for this match. Bohemians are a tough side with two wins under their belt, one of which is against the current champions Plzen. I know its time for Jablonec to play a solid home game and win this one, but at these odds, taking the draw or the away win seem like much better alternatives. I think a couple Bohemians counter attacks could bring us a 7.38 winner.

Pick: Bohemians 1905 @7.38 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: 5-0

Pick 81: Djurgarden- Orebro

Cant believe the odds on Orebro. They have a three match winning streak and still they are offered at 3.44 against troubled Djurgarden. This one is solely because i believe they have much better chance than the 25% they are being given.

Pick: Orebro @3.44 (5dimes)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-2

Pick 80: Krasnodar- Krilya Sovetov

Either i am seeing this wrong or something is going on behind the curtain. The odds on Krasnodar are at amazing 2.75 on Eurobet and i'd be a fool to miss this opportunity. If form is an indicator than Krasnodar should win this easy.

Pick: Krasnodar win @2.75 (Eurobet)
Stake: 50

Result: 1-2

Pick 79: Kaposvar- Ujpest

Its hard to see anyone scoring in this match. Kaposvar have 4 points out of 4 matches with goal difference 4-7. Ujpest havent scored a goal yet, but they are also yet to lose by more than two. With 3 goals scored between the two in 8 matches i cant see this one going over.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.95(Dafabet, 12bet)
Stake: 50

Result: 2-2

Pick 78: Nordsjaelland- Koge

I am going to counter popular opinion on this one and i am going to try the Under 3 goals. Its true Koge both scores and receives a lot of goals, but Nordsjaelland plays very dry matches and i think today's match is a perfect candidate for another one of them. They have a goal difference of 3-6, worst attack in the league. It is true that they played some strong opposition in those matches, but even Koge managed to score against FC Copenhagen, so that shouldn't be an excuse. If Koge manage to squeeze in the first goal they will try to defend the lead and i think that they might as well succeed.

Pick: Under 3 @1.82 (dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-0

Pick 77: Caslav- Sokolov

Another match from the second Czech league and another home favorite to win it. The match in question is Zenit Caslav- Banik Sokolov. The home team won their first match of the season away at Karvina, which is a huge vistory for them, considering the fact that they have never won there before and had a goal difference 1-11. Banik, on the other hand lost the first match 0-2 against Sezimovo Usti. The basically didnt create any chances, though that might be due to the fact they had a red card since the 40th minute.
Last year both their matches were won by Caslav.

Pick: Zenit Caslav @2.12(youwin.com)
Stake: 50

Result:0-2

Pick 76: Wisla Krakow- Zaglebie

Awesome odds on Wisla for this one. They have won 14 out of the 18 times they played against Zaglebie at home. In the last 10 the score is 8-1-1. Its true that Wisla have started a bit slow , but still i wouldn't call two away draws the worst possible start. They are also alive in the Champions league and they beat Bulgarian Litex quite comfortably twice. I cant imagine Zaglebie being much stronger than Litex.

Pick: Wisla @1.83(12bet)
Stake: 100

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 40-35-1
Total P/L: +713.31
Total invested: 5575
ROI: 12.79%

Pick 75: Znojmo- Most

I've used Znojmo a couple of times here with different success. I think they are well worth trying today. They are playing at home against Most, a team who's drowning in debt and is in total disarray. They managed to beat Brno in the first round, but today's match is a different animal. They'd be happy with a point given that their attack will be depleted with the absences of Frnoch and Cervenka.

Pick: Znojmo win @2.02(bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 39-35-1
Total P/L: +630.31
Total invested: 5475
ROI: 11.51

Pick 74: Karlsruhe- Braunschweig

I hate these "public bets" but i have to take this one. With all the support KSC are getting in the blogs and forums something must go wrong. Karlsruhe seem like a huge favorite here, i was interested in this match even before i saw the odds and i was quite shocked after i did. 12bet have them at 2.37, which is 42% probability. I rate them at minimum 50% which makes this a long term good bet. Theory sounds perfect, lets see how we perform for real:).

Pick: Karlsruhe @2.37 (12bet)
Stake: 50

Result: Bet lost