Diamonds in the rough

Lately I have been spending most of my free time researching stocks and I can see many aspects of the stocks research overlapping with the search for profitable tips. Stocks wise my personal favorites are small cap stocks, usually not covered by any analysts. If done properly, this opens the opportunity for finding the diamonds in the rough. Hours of hard research can result in you being the first one to "climb aboard" and profit from the analysts "discovering" the stock and adding it to their coverage portfolio.

Same applies for sports betting. In this case the analyst is represented by the large bookmakers. Betting on the French Open would be the equivalent of buying an Apple or Google stock. More or less, all the relevant factors that are known to the public are well incorporated into the current stock price. However, betting on the ITF Guam challenger (actual event, I am not making it up), would be the equivalent of buying a penny-stock. If your homework is done properly, the penny stock might be priced very badly and might bring in sound profits.

As the subject for my "investment thesis" i chose the above mentioned Guam challenger final, where i believe the odds are not a true reflection of the true chances for a win for the competitors. The finalists are Takuto Niki and Jeevan Nedunchezhiyan. The pre-match odds favor Niki 1.57 vs 2.25 (Source: Bet365). My research lead me to believe the exact opposite was true, offering me incredible value on Nedunchezhiyan.

Nedunchezhiyan (ranked 302) reached the finals by beating Kibi (Jpn) 2-1 in the semis. Kibi is ranked 439 and has 14-7 record this year. The points total in the match, 105-85 would point out to a more comfortable win for Nedunchezhiyan than the 2-1 scoreline might suggest. Before the semis Nedunchezhiyan beat the nr.904 (2-0), nr.1645 (2-0) and the unranked Sano in the first round (2-0). He also played in doubles and dropped out Wednesday. I will elaborate why this is important later on.
Before Guam Nedunchezhiyan  played two tournaments in Kazakhstan. He lost in the first round in the first tournament against the Croat Coric (245 ATP) 2-1. In the second tournament he reached the semis, where he lost to Buchanan (218 ATP), previously beating numbers 693, 234 and 337 on the ATP list.
Nedunchezhiyan is going to achieve his career best position on the ATP tour, breaking into the top 300 after this weeks tournament. His score for the year is 12-9.

T.Niki (507 ATP) reached the final after beating his doubles partner Sato (ATP 721) 2-0. Before this match he eliminated Jun (963 ATP), Ushida (No rank) and Yano (No rank). Prior to coming to Guam he had 20+ days gap, the previous tournament being in Korea, where he reached the semis. There he lost to Cho (749 ATP) 0-2, beating numbers 1368 (walkover), 456 and 1146 on the way. Prior to that tournament he reached the quarterfinal in the first one, losing to number 264, beating 456 and 963.
Niki also played the doubles tournament and reached the final of that tournament as well. He played the final yesterday, after the singles semifinal at 2 p.m local time. The temperature was around 30 degrees with humidity over 70%. Same forecast is expected tomorrow and surely Niki will be the less fresh of the two.

Niki's schedule, combined with the fact Nedunchezhiyan is in better form, beating more high-quality opponents makes me think the odds of 2.25 on Nedunchezhiyan are far too generous to refuse.

My bet: Nedunchezhiyan to win @2.25 (Bet365)

Result: The bet lost. Whatever the outcome, if you do the due diligence, profit can be found in the most unusual of markets. Take this example as a thinking point and expand it with your own inputs. With the odds on the main events getting sharper by the day, a little inovation goes a long way.

And another one...

You know the drill... I pick a random tipster write-up and based on how i perceivethe write-up i decide to follow, oppose or deduct something that wasn't the tipsters idea in the thesis. I am on a quest to prove that the internet is full of free useful information and that even from a useless write-up you can come up with a winning tip.

Today, i will combine two write-ups on the same match. One is searching for the winner of the match, the other is over/under.

Siena -Reggiana

Im in hurry today , but one good tip i founded definitvv< worth to try , its Lega baskett game Beetween Montepashci Siena and Reggiana , from one side we have Montpepaschi team thet lost all they key players team is completly new compare with last year , they dissapointed in Euroelague and also Eurocup , i think Reggiana winner of Eurochallenge that not bad competition like someone my think , its very strong competition and you moght be really good team to win that , so at all i think at least fight but i go with Regiiana win and we see what happeed , my prediction Reggiana

The guy was in a hurry so he decided to base his tip on the fact that a lot of players left Siena last year (?!) and that Regianna won the 3rd best euro-cup, the basketball equivalent of the Intertoto cup. He has a magnificent record as far as these sites go, posting 6.16% ROI over 550+ tips, but if the quality of the writeup here is anything to go by he doesn't put a lot of effort into research. He went for a Regianna win with a +1.5 handicap at odds of 2.95. I'll be humble and take the home win (to clear the -1.5 spread as well), available at 1.44 on bet365.

This is the decisive game for this pair. The winner today will go through to the semi-finals. Despite that the importance of this match is huge, I expect a big score here as well. Teams have been playing high scoring basketball so far. Each of the previous 4 games have ended with at least 156 points scored. Montepaschi overall is better in defense at home, but both meetings between the sides in Siena were the most high scoring. Reggiana is one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the league, and also on the road they can score very good. I think that this will be another high scoring match-up.

This guy (3.5% ROI over almost 300 tips, only one tip on Italian basket) used a combo of past results and well known facts about both teams to justify his overish feeling about this match. I am sure the past 4 matches have already been factored in the current odds, as well as the fact that Regianna is one of the best 3pt teams. His tip is O158.5 at 2.95, we are going U158.5 at odds of 1.38.

I hate playing the low odds, but the quality of the two writeups i could find on this one gave me no choice.

Result: The Over/ Under was missed after an incredible scoring display by both teams in the last quarter. The P-L for the day is -0.54 level stakes profit.

Let's do another one

After the success of my yesterday post, i will give it a go one more time, this time including the match, so you can follow, if you so please.

1.Podbeskidzie - Zaglebie

Match of polish Ekstraklasa relegation group between Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala and Zaglebie Lubin.

Will be short here.

Situation in Ekstraklasa is clera: both Zaglebie and Widzew are already relegated. Podbeskdizie is safe.

Zaglebie didnt have motivation for fight even when they had chances to avoid relegation. Will they have it now ? Yea, fuckin funny :D

Fact is that 90% of a team will left it after this season, so they don't really care what is goin on now with a Zaglebie.

Podbeskidzie with Ojrzynski on bench started to play very decent football and they stay in league.

Under 1.5 stats for both teams [over1.5/under1.5]:

Podbeskidzie ; 11/8

Zaglebie ; 12/7

But the main reason why i take it at such generous odd is an info that injured is Zaglebie's top scorer Piech (34/14) [imo one of few players in team who is worth to be respected football player] and Abwo (35/7). They both are best Zaglebie's players, and 80% of their offensive power..

Weather : it will be rainyyyyy and stromyyyy. Not the ebst weather to make an effective football tiki taka with load of goals :D

Imo we will see boring match with lack of goal situations.

1:0, or 0:0.

ps.: decent choice is a Home win + under 2.5 goals (as a one bet) at odds arround 4.75.

While trying to push the thesis that this will be a low scoring affair the tipster actually persuaded me that this will be a home win :). Go figure. 

He stated Zaglebie is already relegated and Podbeskidizie is safe. Yay home team.

He then stated 90% of the away team will leave after the season. Given the situation, even if 90% is too big of a number, I believe the best players will truly want to leave and play for Ekstraklasa teams. Yay home team again.

Away team's top scorer and another standard first team member are out. Yay home team.

He mentioned the weather as well, but i fail to see how that affects the eventual winner of the match. On top, he sure possesses some extra knowledge on the league, probably because he is a local. He has proven that, posting over 4% ROI over 100+ tips. While i wouldn't entirely confront him, i am more than happy to deduct from his thesis and go a different direction, placing my money on a home win. With the odds at 2.00 i'd be crazy not to.

Result: 2-0 home win for a 1.0 level stakes profit

On following other tipsters

I stayed at home today and decided to do some betting on the Rolland Garros matches from the first round. Since i have no knowledge of the matter i decided to try and find some subject matter experts in the form of random tipsters from all over the internet able to provide useful insights. I decided i would read every single investment "thesis" they presented and eventually invest in the ones that made the most sense to me.

Enter The Internet.

I went to a rather well known tipster site and found exactly what i expected. Tips based on subjective opinions, based on nationality of the player, based on stats from past matches or in some cases on pure hunches.

Lets see a selection of them, i will pick the first 3 i come across and dissect them. I will have a go at each of the matches analysed. Based on whether the writeup is good or bad i will choose to back or to oppose the tip the tipster suggests.

1. XXXXXX is XXth on ATP, he isn't really performing on clay, indeed his results are poor on clay and he even quite boshing up his preparation for Roland Garros. I think that it's too bad because I think that he has the tennis to do well on clay, he moves well on his baseline and shot well, kind of Nishikori in less good of course, but he prefers to focuse on hard...
It could be weird now that I said that but I will trust him for this first round.
I will trust him because he won first round last year with the same lack of preparation against XXXX but especially because he will meet a player who is even worst than him on clay.

Indeed he is going to play against fXXXXX player XXXXX who is XXth on ATP and who has terrible results on clay. His tennis made of straight shots without any lift definitely don't match the surface and I don't think that it will bother the XXXXX player.
I also don't think that playing at home will boost him, he already played 7 French Open and still not a single win on final table.


In essence, this guy bases his tip on a combo of past results. He provided no reason whatsoever that could explain why he thinks the bookies got the odds right and that the match is priced incorrectly. Therefore i will go directly against his tip. Got odds of 1.9 (placing all with bet365, not shopping for odds)

2. Roland Garros, first round. A match between XX and YY tennis player. XXX is on a lower spot, I think that he will win this match without much trouble. XXX is much experinced player, he has X titles, all on clay, while YYY does not have any. XXX is best on clay, while YYY is worst on clay, he prefers grass or hard courts. 

This year, YYY played 10 matches on clay, and won 4, but vs weaker opponents. XXX played 22 matches, won 13. These two players played in ZZZ this year, and XXX won 6-3,6-2. According to their previous matches, it is obvious that, on clay, XXX easily beats  players who are naturally bad on clay, and YYY almost always loses to clay-specialists. Therefore, I think that XXX will win 3-0 today.

This guy goes for the old adagio. If a player beats another player, he will beat the same player over and over again until they both die of old age. I will go for Over 3.5 sets. Got it at 1.9.

3.Its strange for a XX but XX sometimes seems to play better on hard then on clay. He takes balls much faster on hard and he had his best wins were on hard this year. On clay he recently lost to ZZ, who is a future player. But i would not take that seriously, in fact XX is a player who you can not trust in Challengers. In ZZ however he retired against ZZ  Last year something similair happened, his match before RG also retired and then in the slam itself retired against ZZ. Anyway this bet is not based on his condition and i expect him to be healthy. 

He faces YY. YY is typical an all or nothing player, lots of unforced errors and mentally one of the biggest hotheads on Tour. Smashing rackets, complaining about everything, we all know it from him. But the guy can also play. Amazing winners from everywhere, passes, dropshots and when his first serve goes in he is trouble for every player on tour.

In paris he is good, last year made it to the 3rd round and the year before made it to the second round. Big advantage that he is in his home country because to be honest i would noty trust  to bet on him outside France. I think he will dominate in this match, with yes some unforced errors, but more winners to eventually pass to the second round in maybe a long match.

This guy swayed me in his favour. He seems like the only one of the selection to have actually seen the players he's placing a bet on. He is mentioning technical aspects of the game, as well as pointing out to the fragility of player X. I will choose to back his bet. I got him at 2.1 because he was already 1-0 down in the first set at the time of writing.

Given the fact that 95% of the people (source : my ass) that write these tips are long term losing tipsters i have high degree of confidence making some long term profit using this method is possible, understandably with several modifications (ex. odds shopping, excluding mutually conflicting tips etc).

I will keep you posted on how i did today with the three selections.

Results:

1. WON- 3-0 sweep, +0.9 unit profit
2. VOID - Clearly missed thesis by the tipster, player X retired after going down 1-3 in the 1st
3. WON +1.1 units

Final: 2.0 units of profit achieved thanks to a 15 minute analysis. In conclusion, if you don't have the time, let the others do the work for you. If you are smart enough to filter the added value from non added value posts you could achieve success. Now go test the theory and report back with the piles of money you made thanks to me :).