Autumn blues

Not much in terms of betting activity on my behalf recently. I keep running hot on Betrush, especially with the Czech ice-hockey season well on its way. I managed to erase the losses from the early days of my account, when i was using it less seriously and now i am in positive territory overall (5% ROI, 88 tips).

I am also remotely testing a strategy (through a friend), heading for a sample size of 500. After 200 matches and 400 units bet we stand at 0 (-0.7 units to be exact), but we are noticing a pattern within that would make the same strategy very profitable.

MLB pick plus information

The pick can be found here.

As far as the information goes, you will notice on the left side i added links to my performance on Betrush.com. Given the fact that this is not a classical tips-providing blog, keeping track of my tips profitability takes more time than i am actually willing to invest in it. Therefore i decided to post whatever value tips i find on Betrush, which will automatically take care of the calculation part.

I only linked to categories where i have more than 10-15 tips, but i will add more as the sample size gets bigger in other categories. As a rule of thumb, I usually know what I'm doing when it comes to Marlins baseball tips (+1.23 LSP on 7 tips posted there), Czech ice-hockey teams (+3.39 on 29 picks, both czech national leagues and international competitions) and Czech football (no tips posted on Betrush so far, but i follow it closely), so you might as well give it a go.

MLB pick of the day

Marlins to go 3-0.

MLB pick of the day

Marlins to beat the Braves for the second time in two nights. Good luck.

MLB pick of the day

Casey McGehee (MIA) Total hits+ Runs+ RBI Over 2.5 @2.4 (Betsafe). LOST

The guy had at least 2 hits his last 4 games. He is batting 46% in July and is the leader in batting average with runners in scoring position.

MLB pick of the day

Adrian Beltre (TEX) Over 2.5 Hits+ Runs + RBIs @2.6 (Betsafe) WON

MLB pick of the day

Nats @ Giants

MLB tip of the day

Cubs- Marlins, the revenge of the Marlins.

MLB tip of the day

Marlins @ Cubs

Diamonds in the rough

Lately I have been spending most of my free time researching stocks and I can see many aspects of the stocks research overlapping with the search for profitable tips. Stocks wise my personal favorites are small cap stocks, usually not covered by any analysts. If done properly, this opens the opportunity for finding the diamonds in the rough. Hours of hard research can result in you being the first one to "climb aboard" and profit from the analysts "discovering" the stock and adding it to their coverage portfolio.

Same applies for sports betting. In this case the analyst is represented by the large bookmakers. Betting on the French Open would be the equivalent of buying an Apple or Google stock. More or less, all the relevant factors that are known to the public are well incorporated into the current stock price. However, betting on the ITF Guam challenger (actual event, I am not making it up), would be the equivalent of buying a penny-stock. If your homework is done properly, the penny stock might be priced very badly and might bring in sound profits.

As the subject for my "investment thesis" i chose the above mentioned Guam challenger final, where i believe the odds are not a true reflection of the true chances for a win for the competitors. The finalists are Takuto Niki and Jeevan Nedunchezhiyan. The pre-match odds favor Niki 1.57 vs 2.25 (Source: Bet365). My research lead me to believe the exact opposite was true, offering me incredible value on Nedunchezhiyan.

Nedunchezhiyan (ranked 302) reached the finals by beating Kibi (Jpn) 2-1 in the semis. Kibi is ranked 439 and has 14-7 record this year. The points total in the match, 105-85 would point out to a more comfortable win for Nedunchezhiyan than the 2-1 scoreline might suggest. Before the semis Nedunchezhiyan beat the nr.904 (2-0), nr.1645 (2-0) and the unranked Sano in the first round (2-0). He also played in doubles and dropped out Wednesday. I will elaborate why this is important later on.
Before Guam Nedunchezhiyan  played two tournaments in Kazakhstan. He lost in the first round in the first tournament against the Croat Coric (245 ATP) 2-1. In the second tournament he reached the semis, where he lost to Buchanan (218 ATP), previously beating numbers 693, 234 and 337 on the ATP list.
Nedunchezhiyan is going to achieve his career best position on the ATP tour, breaking into the top 300 after this weeks tournament. His score for the year is 12-9.

T.Niki (507 ATP) reached the final after beating his doubles partner Sato (ATP 721) 2-0. Before this match he eliminated Jun (963 ATP), Ushida (No rank) and Yano (No rank). Prior to coming to Guam he had 20+ days gap, the previous tournament being in Korea, where he reached the semis. There he lost to Cho (749 ATP) 0-2, beating numbers 1368 (walkover), 456 and 1146 on the way. Prior to that tournament he reached the quarterfinal in the first one, losing to number 264, beating 456 and 963.
Niki also played the doubles tournament and reached the final of that tournament as well. He played the final yesterday, after the singles semifinal at 2 p.m local time. The temperature was around 30 degrees with humidity over 70%. Same forecast is expected tomorrow and surely Niki will be the less fresh of the two.

Niki's schedule, combined with the fact Nedunchezhiyan is in better form, beating more high-quality opponents makes me think the odds of 2.25 on Nedunchezhiyan are far too generous to refuse.

My bet: Nedunchezhiyan to win @2.25 (Bet365)

Result: The bet lost. Whatever the outcome, if you do the due diligence, profit can be found in the most unusual of markets. Take this example as a thinking point and expand it with your own inputs. With the odds on the main events getting sharper by the day, a little inovation goes a long way.

And another one...

You know the drill... I pick a random tipster write-up and based on how i perceivethe write-up i decide to follow, oppose or deduct something that wasn't the tipsters idea in the thesis. I am on a quest to prove that the internet is full of free useful information and that even from a useless write-up you can come up with a winning tip.

Today, i will combine two write-ups on the same match. One is searching for the winner of the match, the other is over/under.

Siena -Reggiana

Im in hurry today , but one good tip i founded definitvv< worth to try , its Lega baskett game Beetween Montepashci Siena and Reggiana , from one side we have Montpepaschi team thet lost all they key players team is completly new compare with last year , they dissapointed in Euroelague and also Eurocup , i think Reggiana winner of Eurochallenge that not bad competition like someone my think , its very strong competition and you moght be really good team to win that , so at all i think at least fight but i go with Regiiana win and we see what happeed , my prediction Reggiana

The guy was in a hurry so he decided to base his tip on the fact that a lot of players left Siena last year (?!) and that Regianna won the 3rd best euro-cup, the basketball equivalent of the Intertoto cup. He has a magnificent record as far as these sites go, posting 6.16% ROI over 550+ tips, but if the quality of the writeup here is anything to go by he doesn't put a lot of effort into research. He went for a Regianna win with a +1.5 handicap at odds of 2.95. I'll be humble and take the home win (to clear the -1.5 spread as well), available at 1.44 on bet365.

This is the decisive game for this pair. The winner today will go through to the semi-finals. Despite that the importance of this match is huge, I expect a big score here as well. Teams have been playing high scoring basketball so far. Each of the previous 4 games have ended with at least 156 points scored. Montepaschi overall is better in defense at home, but both meetings between the sides in Siena were the most high scoring. Reggiana is one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the league, and also on the road they can score very good. I think that this will be another high scoring match-up.

This guy (3.5% ROI over almost 300 tips, only one tip on Italian basket) used a combo of past results and well known facts about both teams to justify his overish feeling about this match. I am sure the past 4 matches have already been factored in the current odds, as well as the fact that Regianna is one of the best 3pt teams. His tip is O158.5 at 2.95, we are going U158.5 at odds of 1.38.

I hate playing the low odds, but the quality of the two writeups i could find on this one gave me no choice.

Result: The Over/ Under was missed after an incredible scoring display by both teams in the last quarter. The P-L for the day is -0.54 level stakes profit.

Let's do another one

After the success of my yesterday post, i will give it a go one more time, this time including the match, so you can follow, if you so please.

1.Podbeskidzie - Zaglebie

Match of polish Ekstraklasa relegation group between Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala and Zaglebie Lubin.

Will be short here.

Situation in Ekstraklasa is clera: both Zaglebie and Widzew are already relegated. Podbeskdizie is safe.

Zaglebie didnt have motivation for fight even when they had chances to avoid relegation. Will they have it now ? Yea, fuckin funny :D

Fact is that 90% of a team will left it after this season, so they don't really care what is goin on now with a Zaglebie.

Podbeskidzie with Ojrzynski on bench started to play very decent football and they stay in league.

Under 1.5 stats for both teams [over1.5/under1.5]:

Podbeskidzie ; 11/8

Zaglebie ; 12/7

But the main reason why i take it at such generous odd is an info that injured is Zaglebie's top scorer Piech (34/14) [imo one of few players in team who is worth to be respected football player] and Abwo (35/7). They both are best Zaglebie's players, and 80% of their offensive power..

Weather : it will be rainyyyyy and stromyyyy. Not the ebst weather to make an effective football tiki taka with load of goals :D

Imo we will see boring match with lack of goal situations.

1:0, or 0:0.

ps.: decent choice is a Home win + under 2.5 goals (as a one bet) at odds arround 4.75.

While trying to push the thesis that this will be a low scoring affair the tipster actually persuaded me that this will be a home win :). Go figure. 

He stated Zaglebie is already relegated and Podbeskidizie is safe. Yay home team.

He then stated 90% of the away team will leave after the season. Given the situation, even if 90% is too big of a number, I believe the best players will truly want to leave and play for Ekstraklasa teams. Yay home team again.

Away team's top scorer and another standard first team member are out. Yay home team.

He mentioned the weather as well, but i fail to see how that affects the eventual winner of the match. On top, he sure possesses some extra knowledge on the league, probably because he is a local. He has proven that, posting over 4% ROI over 100+ tips. While i wouldn't entirely confront him, i am more than happy to deduct from his thesis and go a different direction, placing my money on a home win. With the odds at 2.00 i'd be crazy not to.

Result: 2-0 home win for a 1.0 level stakes profit

On following other tipsters

I stayed at home today and decided to do some betting on the Rolland Garros matches from the first round. Since i have no knowledge of the matter i decided to try and find some subject matter experts in the form of random tipsters from all over the internet able to provide useful insights. I decided i would read every single investment "thesis" they presented and eventually invest in the ones that made the most sense to me.

Enter The Internet.

I went to a rather well known tipster site and found exactly what i expected. Tips based on subjective opinions, based on nationality of the player, based on stats from past matches or in some cases on pure hunches.

Lets see a selection of them, i will pick the first 3 i come across and dissect them. I will have a go at each of the matches analysed. Based on whether the writeup is good or bad i will choose to back or to oppose the tip the tipster suggests.

1. XXXXXX is XXth on ATP, he isn't really performing on clay, indeed his results are poor on clay and he even quite boshing up his preparation for Roland Garros. I think that it's too bad because I think that he has the tennis to do well on clay, he moves well on his baseline and shot well, kind of Nishikori in less good of course, but he prefers to focuse on hard...
It could be weird now that I said that but I will trust him for this first round.
I will trust him because he won first round last year with the same lack of preparation against XXXX but especially because he will meet a player who is even worst than him on clay.

Indeed he is going to play against fXXXXX player XXXXX who is XXth on ATP and who has terrible results on clay. His tennis made of straight shots without any lift definitely don't match the surface and I don't think that it will bother the XXXXX player.
I also don't think that playing at home will boost him, he already played 7 French Open and still not a single win on final table.


In essence, this guy bases his tip on a combo of past results. He provided no reason whatsoever that could explain why he thinks the bookies got the odds right and that the match is priced incorrectly. Therefore i will go directly against his tip. Got odds of 1.9 (placing all with bet365, not shopping for odds)

2. Roland Garros, first round. A match between XX and YY tennis player. XXX is on a lower spot, I think that he will win this match without much trouble. XXX is much experinced player, he has X titles, all on clay, while YYY does not have any. XXX is best on clay, while YYY is worst on clay, he prefers grass or hard courts. 

This year, YYY played 10 matches on clay, and won 4, but vs weaker opponents. XXX played 22 matches, won 13. These two players played in ZZZ this year, and XXX won 6-3,6-2. According to their previous matches, it is obvious that, on clay, XXX easily beats  players who are naturally bad on clay, and YYY almost always loses to clay-specialists. Therefore, I think that XXX will win 3-0 today.

This guy goes for the old adagio. If a player beats another player, he will beat the same player over and over again until they both die of old age. I will go for Over 3.5 sets. Got it at 1.9.

3.Its strange for a XX but XX sometimes seems to play better on hard then on clay. He takes balls much faster on hard and he had his best wins were on hard this year. On clay he recently lost to ZZ, who is a future player. But i would not take that seriously, in fact XX is a player who you can not trust in Challengers. In ZZ however he retired against ZZ  Last year something similair happened, his match before RG also retired and then in the slam itself retired against ZZ. Anyway this bet is not based on his condition and i expect him to be healthy. 

He faces YY. YY is typical an all or nothing player, lots of unforced errors and mentally one of the biggest hotheads on Tour. Smashing rackets, complaining about everything, we all know it from him. But the guy can also play. Amazing winners from everywhere, passes, dropshots and when his first serve goes in he is trouble for every player on tour.

In paris he is good, last year made it to the 3rd round and the year before made it to the second round. Big advantage that he is in his home country because to be honest i would noty trust  to bet on him outside France. I think he will dominate in this match, with yes some unforced errors, but more winners to eventually pass to the second round in maybe a long match.

This guy swayed me in his favour. He seems like the only one of the selection to have actually seen the players he's placing a bet on. He is mentioning technical aspects of the game, as well as pointing out to the fragility of player X. I will choose to back his bet. I got him at 2.1 because he was already 1-0 down in the first set at the time of writing.

Given the fact that 95% of the people (source : my ass) that write these tips are long term losing tipsters i have high degree of confidence making some long term profit using this method is possible, understandably with several modifications (ex. odds shopping, excluding mutually conflicting tips etc).

I will keep you posted on how i did today with the three selections.

Results:

1. WON- 3-0 sweep, +0.9 unit profit
2. VOID - Clearly missed thesis by the tipster, player X retired after going down 1-3 in the 1st
3. WON +1.1 units

Final: 2.0 units of profit achieved thanks to a 15 minute analysis. In conclusion, if you don't have the time, let the others do the work for you. If you are smart enough to filter the added value from non added value posts you could achieve success. Now go test the theory and report back with the piles of money you made thanks to me :).

Two plays for today

1. Jihlava - Havirov
2. Sumperk- Kadan

Russia to get stopped second day in a row

Russia- Slovakia (Sochi Olympics Ice Hockey tournament)

This one is way too tempting not to give it a go. The bookies, as usual, overreacted to the Slovakian loss against Slovenia and set the odds for Russia around the 1.15 mark. I am not saying that Russia shouldn't beat the Slovaks easily, but i strongly believe that they are not able to win 87 matches out of 100 in regular time to justify the 1.15 odds.

Slovakia, after the colossal embarrassment they suffered yesterday will want to put in a better display. They will move some pieces around to achieve that, starting with the goalie. For today's match they are fielding Jan Laco from KHL's Donbas, who has a 1.47 GAA and 94% save percentage in 12 matches on goal for the Ukranian team. If he has a good start to the match he can spark a better performance from the Slovaks.

The Russians lost an epic match against USA yesterday in a shootout and i believe it will be much harder to find the motivation against Slovakia today. They might underestimate Slovakia and let them get an early lead, which might prove disastrous because Slovakia is actually a better suited team to play on the counter-attack, rather than attack most of the match. They sure proved that yesterday against Slovenia.

I chose Slovakia on the double chance, but if you are into riskier, high reward bets, the draw looks very appealing to me at this moment. It can be found at odds of 12.

Pick: Slovakia or draw (60 mins) @6.5 (MarathonBet)

Looking for a jackpot

Posted on Betrush

Benatky- Havlickuv Brod
I have no clue why are the odds so tilted towards Benatky here. It is true that Benatky are coming of a 6 game wining streak, but it's visible that they are running out of juice and a loss is looming any moment now. Their last match against Budejovice was a low tempo match where anyone could come away with the victory. If the reports are true Budejovice were even the better team in that match. At the end Benatky won after penalty shootout. Looking at tomorrow's match, I wouldn't favor any team in this league to easily win a match coming against Havlickuv Brod after 4 wins against teams such as Usti, the leader Mlada Boleslav, second Olomouc and away in Budejovice.

If this didnt sound persuasive enough, read on. Benatky played Budejovice without their 2nd, 3rd and 5th top productive players. Barta (37g/14g/14a), Jonak (44g/12g/11a) and Dusek (18g/ 6g/ 14a) were out. I dont have the team report for tomorrow, but if they weren't fit Monday, what are the odds they will be fit Wednesday?

Rebel is not in top form admitedly, lost the home match against Jihlava monday in a powerplay dominated shootout and before that won against weak Beroun in a very limp fashion. Even so, a team that has won 6 of the last 10 matches is priced at 6.5. No brainer really.

Pick: 2 (60 min) @6.5 Marathonbet

Looking for the big draw

Trebic- Beroun

Again going with a value bet from the Czech 1st league.

Trebic are massive favorites if you trust the odds and most of the statistical evidence points to a clear home win. Trebic, however, haven’t been convincing lately and given the fact they have a certain spot in the playoffs there might be a slight place for a slip-up. At these odds I am more than willing to take the chance. The last 4 Trebic matches ended up in one goal difference, 2 of them going into overtime.

Beroun are coming out of a scrappy match against Havlickuv Brod they lost late in the third. Both coaches in the interviews after the match agreed that Beroun deserved at least a point out of the encounter. Against H.Brod there was a significant improvement in their defensive play, resulting in 31 shots allowed. In the 7 matches previous to that they were allowing 50+ shots on average. Even with that sort of leaky defense they held the table leader Mlada Boleslav to a regulation draw and managed one goal wins against in-form Benatky, 3rd placed Jihlava and average Usti nad Labem. That brings the total to 5 one goal matches in the last 8.

My thesis here is that the match will be much closer than the odds make it appear and the 6.3 odds for a regular time draw are just too good to miss out on. To put things into perspective, the last match between these two teams was played 11.11.2013 and the best odds for the draw were 4.5. Trebic was in a better form at that point than they are today, having won 3 of 4. Beroun came into that match riding a 4 match losing streak. I know that looking at the odds then and now is a very general assumption, but I just can’t see how an increase of 40% in the odds for a draw can be justified. A scrappy match that can go either way is well within the options here.

Pick: Draw (60 min.) @ 6.3 on Marathonbet

Czech hockey pick for the day

Also posted on Betrush. You can see my czech hockey stats there.

Pardubice - Vitkovice

This one promises to be a high quality contest. I am edging with the away team Vitkovice to win it by two or more just because of the bookies irrational approach to pricing it. Namely, the team that’s riding a seven away games wining streak, coming off full 7 days of rest is being priced as the underdog. The win odds are moving around 1.72 for Pardubice and 2.15 for Vitkovice. The least they could do was to price it 50/50.

Pardubice is a typical “hot and cold” type of team. The last 5 matches they changed wins and losses on regular basis, winning the last one played away in Zlin. Before that there was a 4 match losing streak. Before that streak they took points in 5 of the 6 previous matches. Even within a single game they are prone to sudden lapses in concentration. In the penultimate match, played away at Kladno, one of the weakest teams in the league, they took a 3-0 lead, only to lose the match 4-3 in overtime. The last match against Zlin they played with poise and intensity, winning it 4-1 (the 4th goal being an empty-netter) so I am hoping they won’t be able to sustain that intensity level for a second match in three days, with a travel from Zlin (on the south of Czech Republic) to Pardubice (central Bohemia region) in between.

Vitkovice is coming fresh off a 7 day break due to the Davis cup matches being played in their home arena. Having enough time to travel and prepare for the match must give them some sort of edge. If anything, they had a chance to tend to all the minor health issues. Reportedly Michal Hlinka (25 matches, 3 goals, 6 assists, 11:31 average time on ice)and Michael Vandas (38 matches, 7 goals, 8 assists, 10:44 TOI) complained on injuries and their presence is not confirmed yet. Their seven consecutive away wins helped them solidify their position as the best away team in the league with a 14-7 record. Sparta is second with 12-9.

Most likely the winner will be decided by details and when it comes to high pressure no-mistake-allowed matches I trust Vitkovice more than I do Pardubice. If they enter the match with the intensity they’ve shown in their recent away matches there is a fair chance they can blow the contest open early and contain their lead until the end.

Tip: Vitkovice (-1EH) 2 @4.1 on Unibet

A tip for the braver heart

I posted this one on betrush as well.

Jihlava- Ceske Budejovice

A speculative bet based on my opinion that the odds on it are a bit off.

Although they are the favorites, i wouldn't say Jihlava will be dominating this match. They had an average January at best, won 5 lost 5. Of those losses one was to the leaders Mlada Boleslav away, one to a playoff contender Havirov (7-1 loss!) and three bad losses at the hands of Usti nad Labem (9th place) , Beroun (11th place) and Kadan (13th place of 14).

Ceske Budejovice are the negative surprise of the season. Though they were one of the favorites to win the league pre-season they are standing 12 and their playoff hopes are pure sciense fiction at this stage. They are showing signs of improvement lately, winning 3 of their last 4, 2 of those wins coming away from their own arena. The captain Ales Kotalik is an experienced ex-NHL player and their leading scorer with 24 points. They will be missing the forward Skuhravy, who was used by the extraleague team Litvinov in their match yesterday against Plzen. Though he is a productive scorer, he is also the most penalized player on the squad. If they want to take away three points from an away match against Jihlava they must show flawless discipline, so Skuhravy's absence might come as a blessing in disguise. Because of Skuhravy's inclusion in Litvinov, Budejovice got Roman Psurny from Litvinov and he is proving to be an excellent addition to the team scoring 4 times and assisting 3 times in the 6 matches he's played for Budejovice this season. His extraleague record for Litvinov for the season is 32 matches and 1goal and 1 assist only in 10.5 minutes on ice on average.

Tip: 2 (60 minutes) @6.00 (Ladbrokes)

Czech hockey bet for today

One match caught my eye.
Litvinov- Brno 2

Today's hockey picks

Two matches from the Czech Division 1 caught my eye:

Benatky - Trebic 1 2.32
Most- Havlickuv Brod 2 1.61

The explanations are on Betrush, click through to find them.