Random tips for 2.8

1. Arsenal Kiev (-1 AH) - Mura 2 3.11 (Pinnacle) L
2. Ruch - Plzen x 3.57 (Pinnacle) L
3. Tromso - Met Donetsk 1 2.65 (Unibet) L
4. Yehuda- PAOK 1 3.00 (Ladbrokes) L
5. Steaua - Trnava x 4.75 (MyBet) L
6. Twente (-2 AH) - M.Boleslav 2 1.95 (Pinnacle) Void
7. Dundee Utd. - Dynamo Moscow 1 5.00 (Will Hill) L
8. Sarajevo - Zeta 2 7.00 (Tipico) L

July round-up

An entirely unimportant July is behind us. I was totally demotivated to post any tips, posting 14 tips altogether. There simply wasn't anything that would tickle my fancy so i just relaxed and let it be. I did, as a matter of fact start a poker challenge to get me back into the game, but that is not too important. I don't expect any profits from that whatsoever.
As the major football leagues are approaching i should sit down and reconsider what strategy to pursue because it is painfully obvious that just by picking random events and random tips i am not going to be able to show consistent profits. It is all going to depend on the spare time i will be able to allocate to this hobby of mine. Elaborate schemes and systems, such as the 'daily picks' i had at the beginning or the 'successful tipsters' scheme i tried at one period, take a lot of time.
I might as well keep on bumping from one wall to the other in search of the holy grail, but that is a method i hate because its time-consuming and brings 0% certainty in making your commitment worthwhile.

Random tips for 16.7

1. Djurgarden(-1AH) - Norrkoping 1 2.49 (Pinnacle) LOST
2. Malmo (-1AH) - GAIS 2 2.3 (Pinnacle) LOST

Dailly summary: W0 L2, -2.0 LSP 
Monthly summary: W3 L11, -1.77 LSP 

Random thoughts on my random tips

Its the 5th month since i started posting the random tips and an analysis was long overdue.
I did an analysis for April and May only. March is not on my spreadsheet and i'm too lazy to go back and add it. June was small sample size, lots of different tips which were not limited to1x2 or goals (EURO mania). This would mean the conclusions we can draw from June will be shady to say the least.
Given the number of tips I've got in April and May (a lot!) its safe to say they are enough of an indicator to prove how much I suck at this. They can also prove that punting, without trading is a hell of a nerve-wrecker if you want to make decent money out of it. Anyways, on to what i found out.
Stats only prove what i suspected: I suck on all fields. Since most of my bets are x, the biggest losses occurred when i predicted the draw (how shocking, right?). May brought a 38.17 pts. loss, April -13.8. The number of draw tips in both months were roughly equal to the rest of tips added together.  E.g. April tips: x 262 tips, 1 136 tips, 2 102 tips, rest 6 tips.
The home win tips were not terrible, -9 pts. for both months. Away tips, which comes as a bit of a surprise to me is slightly in plus, a bit over 0.5 pts. The rest of the tips (goals, FGS, random other) are too small of a sample size to judge.
I still hope i'm not as bad as I appeared in April and May. I leave the space for correction because of the well known notion that by the end of the season lots of teams are not playing as recent form might suggest. With form being one of the main factors in choosing a selection you can understand how this might bias the numbers. Just look at May, the month where most leagues finished. I lost over 40pts. in total without really changing the way i was choosing my selections.
The battle is long and fearsome but the goal is too sweet to quit. We're moving on, thought by our past mistakes in hope of a better new season.

Random tips for 15.7

1. Viking- Honefoss x 3.94 (5dimes, 2 other) LOST
2. Songdal- Stabaek x 3.84 (5dimes, 2 other) LOST
3. Haugesund - Rosenborg x 3.69 (5dimes, 2other) LOST
4. Orebro - Hacken 1 3.6 (188bet) LOST
5. Kalmar- Elfsborg x 3.52 (Pinnacle, 3 other) LOST

Two 90 minutes goals killed off two draws. Oh well, it goes with the job when looking for draws.

Dailly summary: W0 L5, -5.0 LSP 
Monthly summary: W3 L9, +0.23 LSP

Random tips for 14.07

1. Atvidabergs - AIK o2.5 2.00 (5Dimes, 888sport) LOST
2. Helsingborg- Syrianska x 5.12 (Pinnacle) LOST
3. IFK Goteborg - Gefle x 5.01 (Pinnacle) WON
4. Mjallby - Sundsvall 2 4.00 (888sport, Blue square) LOST

Dailly summary: W1 L3, +1.01 LSP 
Monthly summary: W3 L4, +5.23 LSP

Random tips for 08.07

The random tips are back:

1. Aalesund- Viking x 3.62 (5dimes) WON
2. Grenland- Haugesund x 3.5 (Noxwin, Circlebet) LOST
3. Sandnes - Valerenga 2 3.6 (bet365) WON

Dailly summary: W2 L1, +4.22 LSP
Monthly summary: W2 L1, +4.22 LSP

Post EURO, post holiday thoughts

Its been a good period. The EURO was a lot of fun, especially since i was in Italy during their bid to win it all. They didn't win it, but they've won me over. I've never really liked them in the past (duh, obvious, who didn't) but what Prandeli has done seems to have worked. I hate Baloteli, i dislike Casano, but the rest is a bunch of hard working guys who can beat most teams.
Betting sucks lately (not that there's a chance to create a huge sample size these days). I failed to make my goal for the last month and that stings, but there's always another month.
Enjoy the lazy period and get ready for the football season. I hope I'll find the time to bet a bit this month, but i wouldn't rely on that too much.

Here's to the Dutch

1. Portugal - Holland 2 2.63
2. Portugal - Holland Draw or Holland win 1.45
3. Portugal - Holland Holland +0 (1st half AH) 1.9
4. Portugal - Holland Holland +0 (AH) 1.87
5. Portugal - Holland Over 1 (1st half goals) 1.88
6. Portugal - Holland Draw - Holland 6.5

Going all Dutch today. They need two goals win to have any chance of progressing. Portugal didn't impress me at all so far.

Dailly summary: W1 L4 Void 1, -3.12 LSP

Monthly summary: W 12 L 23, Void 2 LSP -5.75 , ROI -16.9%

Random tips for 16.6

1. Czech Republic- Poland x 3.6
2. Russia- Greece 1 1.8

I'll go for the Czech to qualify even though Poland played a great game against Russia. The pressure of having to win will be the deciding factor here IMO.

Dailly summary: W0 L2, +2.0 LSP

Monthly summary: W 11 L 19, Void 1 LSP -2.63 , ROI -9.08%

Random tips for 14.06

1. Italy - Croatia Over 2.5 goals 2.5
2. Italy - Croatia Over 0.75 goals (1st half) 1.77

Random tips for 13.06

1. Denmark - Portugal Over 1 (First half goals) 2.23
2. Holland - Germany Draw (HT) 2.2
3. Holland - Germany Draw-Germany (HT/FT) 6.5
4. Holland - Germany 1 2.5

Very late edit: The tip on nr.4 was of course 2 (for Germany), not 1 (Holland). Otherwise I'd be a very dumb bettor to be betting x at half time, x-2 HT/FT and 1 on match odds:). For confirmation you can see it in my tip history at OLBG.

Dailly summary: W2 L2, +0.73 LSP

Monthly summary: W 10 L 16, Void 1 LSP -0.02 , ROI -0.07%

Random tips for 12.06

1. Poland - Russia x 3.4
2. Greece - Czech Republic x 3.4

Dailly summary: W1 L1, +1.4 LSP

Monthly summary: W 8 L 14, Void 1 LSP -0.75 , ROI -3.48%

Random tips for 11.6

19:45 Ukraine v Sweden 100 Win Draw - Sweden  6.5

19:45 Ukraine v Sweden 100 Win Over 1 (1st Half Goals)  2.23

19:45 Ukraine v Sweden 100 Win Sweden  3

Random tips for 10.6

Sunday 10th June 2012
14:00 Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal 100 Win Novak Djokovic  4
17:00 Spain v Italy 100 Win Draw (HT)  2.04
17:00 Spain v Italy 100 Win Italy  5.25
17:00 Spain v Italy 100 Win Italy 0.25 (1st Half AH)  1.9
17:00 Spain v Italy 100 Win Italy #2-0  23
19:45 Rep of Ireland v Croatia 100 Win Croatia  2.29
19:45 Rep of Ireland v Croatia 100 Win Croatia - Croatia  3.8
19:45 Rep of Ireland v Croatia 100 Win Over 2.5  2.8

Dailly summary: W5 (one was with half the stake, half was void) L2, +5.38 LSP

Monthly summary: W 7 L 10, Void 1 LSP +0.85 , ROI +5.15%

Random tips for 9.6

17:00 Holland v Denmark 100 Win Over 1 (1st Half Goals)  2.08

19:45 Germany v Portugal 100 Win Over 1 (1st Half Goals)  2.02

19:45

Varese v Sampdoria

100 Win

Varese

2.5

Random tips for 8.6

No point in looking for other mtches when all the focus will be on the EURO. Enjoy it!!

17:00 Poland v Greece 100 Win Over 2.5  2.9 "Ridiculous odds on this match for the over 2.5. Had the odds been 2.00 on both sides i'd rather pick the under, but this is too good to miss. Its not like the unders is doomed before they kick off. In 8 matches theyve played in Poland the goal difference is 22-5. Lukasz Piszczek, Jakob Blaszczykowski and Robert Lewandowski scored at will this season for Borusia and i can see the successful cooperation transfering to the national team. I give the edge to Poland, but if Greece manage to score overs seems like a reasonable option."

17:00 Poland v Greece 100 Win Poland #2-1  10

17:00 Poland v Greece 100 Win Poland to score in both halves  3.75

19:45 Russia v Czech Republic 100 Win Czech Republic to score in both halves  6

19:45 Russia v Czech Republic 100 Win Over 2.00  2.07

Dailly summary: W1 L4, -2.93 LSP

Monthly summary: W 2 L 6, LSP -2.53 , ROI -31.62%

Random tips for 06.06

1. Hercules - Alcorcon x 3.4
2. Sampdoria - Varese x 3.11
3. Cordoba- Valladolid 1 2.91

Dailly summary: W1 L2, 0.4 LSP


Should be good matches, though they can easily turn into cagey 0-0s, which we are hoping for.
On a side note, the OLBG pro thing is going good, currently lying 2nd.

Motivation:

OLBG football pros

A fun fact that i found a bit odd given how much i've neglected the site lately: Apparently i was able to enter the OLBG football pros table for this month. Elligibility to enter the football pros pros table is earned by a good track record over a continous period. In this exact case the criteria is: positive record in 4 of the 6 last months in the given sport, positive LSP for the previous month (10 or more tips) and positive LSP over the 6 previous months.
This has somewhat healed the broken spirit from the recent performance and helped me set a goal for this month (allbeit a shortened one because i am leaving for a holiday 23.06). The goal is to STAY! Avoiding "relegation" will not be easy by any means. In theory a positive month should secure another month in the table. In practise its a bit more complicated. Apparently i had a killer December 2011 on OLBG and unfortunatelly that month is not going to be counted in come next month. This left me with -6.15 LSP at the moment (even though i am +2.33 this month) over the running 6 month period.
If by any chance i win a prize this month (highly doubt this due to the holiday coming end of June) i will cash out the prize money and place it all on one selection which i will choose in cooperation with the readers of this blog.


Good luck to you all and here's a motivator for a positive June. If this doesnt motivate you (half naked ladies on a boat) i dont know what will :)

Random thoughts on whats going on

A horrendous month to say the least! The total P/L is -42.51pts, the ROI -21.74 and the strike rate 23.35%. We had 46 winners, 151 lost bets and a total of 197 bets for May.
I don't have the will power to get into deeper excavations yet, but that day will soon come. I will separate different odd groups and come back with what i found. Today i'll give trading tennis a go, just for fun, nothing big.
Updates will probably be posted on twitter.

Random picks for 25.5

1. G-Osaka - Tosu x 3.77
2. Nagoya - C-Osaka x 4.02

Dailly summary: W0 L2, -2.0 LSP

Monthly summary: W 46 L 151, LSP -42.51 , ROI -21.74%

Random tips for 20.5

1. Evian - Brest 1 2.3
2. Lille - Nancy x 5.2
3. Lyon - Nice  1 1.74
4. Toulouse- Ajaccio x 3.44

Dailly summary: W0 L4, -4.0 LSP

Monthly summary: W 46 L 149, LSP -40.51 , ROI -20.93%

Random tips for 19.5

1. Blackpool- West Ham 1 4.33
2. Verona- Varese 2 3.87
3. Fredrikstad - Stromsgodset 2 2.55
4. Honefoss- Valerenga x 3.5
5. Ribery to score 3.46

Random tips for 18.5

1. Boulogne - Monaco 2 2.95 W
2. Chateauroux - Guingamp 2 3.23 W
3. Clermont - Laval x 3.62 L
4. Istres- Bastia x 3.4 L
5. Le havre- Angers x 3.38 L
6. Le Mans- Arles x 3.65 W
7. Metz - Tours 2 3.67 L
8. Nantes- Sedan x 3.43 L

Dailly summary: W3 L5, -1.83 LSP

Monthly summary: W 45 L 141, LSP -34.06 , ROI -18.46%

Random tips for 17.5

1. Rapid Wien - Innsbruck x 4.21
2. Ried - Neustadt x 4.07
3. Sturm- Austria x 3.66
4. Cercle Brugge- Gent U2.75 1.935
5. GAIS - Sundsvall x 3.73
6. Mjallby - IFK 1 2.63
7. Malmo - Elfsborg 2 4.05

Random tips for 15.5

1. Nagoya - Central coast x 4.00 LOST
2. Jeonbuk - Kashiwa 1 1.98 LOST
3. Buriram - Guangzhou 1 4.65 LOST
4. Tianjin - Seongnam x 4.18 LOST
5. Al Shabab - Persepolis x 3.86 LOST
6. Lekhwiya- Al Nasr x 3.92 LOST
7. Sepahan - Al Ahli 2 4.41 LOST
8. Fortuna - Hertha x 3.62 WON

Dailly summary: W1 L7, -4.38 LSP

Monthly summary: W 41 L 130, LSP -32.96 , ROI -19.44%

Random tips for 13.5

1. Innsbruck - Sturm x 3.41
2. Norwich - A.Villa x 3.62
3. Stoke - Bolton x 3.79
4. Sunderland- Manchester x 4.77
5. WBA- Arsenal x 4.32
6. Fiorentina- Cagliari 1 2.2
7. Parma- Bologna x 3.85
8. Chievo - Lecce x 3.63
9. Lazio - Inter x 3.62
10. Alaccio - Lyon 2 2.73
11. Nancy - St.Etienne 1 2.96
12. Getafe - Zaragoza 1 4.18
13. Levante- Bilbao 2 4.97
14. Malaga- Gijon U3.25 1.901
15. Santander - Osasuna x 4.26
16. Vallecano - Granada 2 5.45
17. Villareal- Atletico x 3.4

Random tips for 12.5

1. Crotone - Nocerina 1 2.37
2. Empoli - Vicenza 1 2.04
3. J.Stabia - Sampdoria x 3.31
4. Modena - Grosseto 1 2.47
5. Regina - Citadella 2 4.41
6. Varese- Ascoli 2 6.07
7. Pescara- Torino x 3.55

Dailly summary: W2 L5, -2.16 LSP

Monthly summary: W 36 L 110, LSP -23.64 , ROI -16.36%

Random tips for 11.5

1. Amiens- Reims 2 1.826
2. Angers- Boulogne 1 2.18
3. Guingamp- Clermont x 3.29
4. Laval- Le Havre 2.72
5. Lens- Istres x 3.68
6. Monaco - Troyes 1 2.52
7. Sedan - Chateauroux x 4.06
8. Tours- Le mans 1 2.59

Random tips for 10.5

1. Austria Wien - Neustadt x 5.26 LOST
2. Mattersburg- Rapid x 3.51 LOST
3. Sturm - Admira x 3.64 LOST
4. Genk - Brugge x 3.57 LOST
5. Kortrijk - Anderlecht x 3.7 LOST
6. Hertha - F. Dusseldorf x 3.67 LOST
7. Hacken- Gefle x 4.58 LOST
8. Malmo - Helsingborg x 3.6 LOST
9. Angelholms- Landskrona 2 3.61 LOST

Its flawless performances like this one that make me wonder how much i suck at this.

Dailly summary: W0 L9, -11.53 LSP

Monthly summary: W 31 L 100, LSP -20.08 , ROI -9.19%

Random tips for 9.5

1. Banik Ostrava- Slavia Praha 2 7.81
2. Budejovice - M.Boleslav x 3.47
3. H.Kralove - Olomouc 2 2.47
4. Plzen - Pribram x 6.9
5. Slovacko - Zizkov x 3.99

Dailly summary: W1 L4, -2.53 LSP

Monthly summary: W 31 L 91, LSP -11.08 , ROI -9.19%

Random tips for 8.5.12

1. AIK- Djurgardens x 3.53 WON
2. CSKA- Kuban x 4.51 WON

Dailly summary: W2 L0, +6.04 LSP

Monthly summary: W 30 L 87, LSP -8.55 , ROI -7.4%

Random tips for 7.5

1. LASK - A.Lustenau x 3.64 LOST
2. Sonderjyske - Midtjylland 1 3.61 LOST
3. Blackburn - Wigan x 3.51 LOST
4. W.Ham- Cardiff x 4.05 LOST
5. Auxerre- Bordeaux x 3.31 LOST
6. Sochaux - Nancy x 3.34 LOST
7. St.Etienne - Marseille x 3.41 WON
8. Toulouse - Nice x 3.59 WON
9. GAIS - Mjallby x 3.45 WON
10. Orebro - Kalmar x 3.36 LOST
11. Elfsborg- Goteborg x 3.62 LOST

Dailly summary: W3 L8, -0.55 LSP

Random tips for 6.5

1. Rapid - Salzburg x 3.37 LOST
2. Anderlecht - Club Brugge x 3.97 WON
3. Standard Liege- Genk x 3.55 LOST
4. Eupen- Westerlo x 3.5 LOST
5. Beveren- Oostende 1 2.12 WON
6. A.Villa- Tottenham x 3.69 WON
7. Fulham - Sunderland x 3.9 LOST
8. Newcastle - M.City 1 5.42 LOST
9. Wolves - Everton x 3.98 WON
10. Evian - Ajaccio x 3.49 LOST
11. Atalanta - Lazio 2 3.36 WON
12. Bologna - Napoli 1 6.56 WON
13. Inter - Milan x 3.68 LOST
14. Cagliari - Juve x 5.95 LOST
15. Braunschweig- Ingolstadt x 3.8 LOST

Dailly summary: W6 L9, +8.68 LSP

Monthly summary: W 25 L 79, LSP -14.04 , ROI -13.7%

Random tips for 5.5

1. Neustadt - Sturm x 3.35 WON
2. Admira- Austria Wien x 3.4 LOST
3. Insbruck - Mattersburg O2.25 goals 1.926 WON
4. Kapfenberg - Ried -0.25 2 2.02 1/2 LOST 1/2 VOID
5. Lierse - Leuven x 3.65 LOST
6. Waregem - Lokeren x 3.67 WON
7. Pribram - Ostrava 1 2.72 LOST
8. Lyngby- Nordsjaeland 1 7.19 LOST
9. Bournemouth - Preston x 3.58 LOST
10. Chesterfield - Brentford 1 3.00 LOST
11. Exeter - Sheffield Utd 1 6.34 LOST
12. Huddersfield - Yeovil x 4.22 LOST
13. Leyton Orient - Rochdale x 3.59 LOST
14. MK Dons - Wallsall U2.75 2.00 WON
15. Notts Co - Colchester x 4.05 LOST
16. Oldham- Carlisle x 3.56 LOST
17. Sheff.Wed. - Wycombe+1.75 2 2.17 1/2 LOST 1/2 VOID
18. Stevenage - Bury x 4.72 LOST
19. Tranmere- Scunthorpe x 3.47 WON
20. Chelsea- Liverpool x 3.3 LOST
21. Grosetto - Pescara x 4.27 LOST
22. Verona- Livorno 1 1.741 WON
23. Sassuolo - Crotone x 3.99 LOST
24. Augsburg- Hamburger x 3.65 LOST
25. Werder - Schalke x 3.84 LOST
26. Dortmund- Freiburg 2 12.5 LOST
27. Hanover - Kaiserslautern x 4.85 LOST
28. Hertha- Hoffenheim x 3.73 LOST
29. Mainz- M'gladbach x 3.65 LOST
30. Stuttgart - Wolfsburg x 4.07 LOST
31.. Gijon- Betis 2 4.17 LOST
32. Mallorca - Levante x 3.81 LOST
33. Osasuna - Sociedad x 3.56 LOST
34. Sevilla - Valecano 1 1.901 WON
35. Valencia- Villareal x 3.84 LOST
36. Zaragoza - Santander x 5.15 LOST

Dailly summary: W7 L29, -16.94 LSP

Monthly summary: W 19 L 70, LSP -22.72 , ROI -25.96%

Random tips for 4.5

1. Blackpool- Birmingham x 3.38 LOST
2. Boulogne- Laval 2 3.64 LOST
3. Chateauroux- Tours 1 2.52 LOST
4. Istres- Angers 2 3.97 WON
5. Le Havre- Amiens x 4.3 LOST
6. Le Mans - Bastia 2 3.43 LOST
7. Metz - Guingamp x 3.38 LOST
8. Nantes - Arles x 3.38 LOST
9. Troyes - Lens x 3.44 LOST
10. Kalmar- Gais 1 2.56 LOST
11. Cork - Dundalk x 3.87 LOST
12. Drogheda - Sligo 1 4.54 LOST

Dailly summary: W1 L11, -8.03 LSP

Monthly summary: W 12 L 41, LSP -5.78 , ROI -11.01%

Random tips for 3.5

1. Horsens- Sonderjyske x 3.54 LOST
2. Brondby- Silkeborg x 3.65 LOST
3. Odense- Aalborg x 3.61 LOST
4. Cardiff- West ham 1 2.84 LOST
5. Luton- Wrexham x 3.35 LOST
6. Kawasaki- Iwata 2 3.19 LOST
7. Tosu- Vegalta 1 3.29 LOST
8. Shimizu- Kashima 1 2.84 WON
9. Urawa- Yokohama 1 2.16 LOST
10. Cracovia- Ruch x 3.68 LOST
11. Gornik- Wisla 1 2.88 WON
12. Lodz - Belchatow x 3.31 WON
13. Polonia- Zaglebie x 3.39 LOST
14. Slask- Jagiellonia x 3.96 LOST

Dailly summary: W3 L11, -4.97 LSP

Monthly summary: W 11 L 30, LSP +2.25 , ROI 5.55%