The psychology behind big odds

Sports bettors have a tendency to avoid large odds for no apparent reason.

A value bet is a value bet, regardless of the price. Its true that large odds bring large variance in terms of losing streaks, but at the right price, there's no reason to avoid placing a bet on the team you think might win 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 games against the same opponent. With the sportsbooks getting sharper with each and every bet they take, we can not allow ourselves to pass up an +EV opportunity.

I compare the sportsbooks to the stock market for numerous reasons. And just like on the stock market, in the sports betting game trends and price don't always reflect the real value of an asset. It is sometimes much better to do your studying properly and choose the heavy underdog in the right moment and understandably, for the right price.

In that spirit here's my selection of less favored results for today's matches. Good luck if you choose some.

1. Bohemians-Jablonec Draw@ 3.63 (Pinnacle)

2. Hanover- Stuttgart Draw @3.51 (5dimes)

3. PAOK- Aris Over 2.5 @3.01 (Pinnacle)

4. Pallermo- Lazio 2 @ 3.71 (Sportbet)

Betting is tough

Its been a long month betting wise. The tipster portfolio on paper looks perfect. Practice is a different animal altogether. -4.98% ROI for January brings no joy. What brings even less joy is the way those -4.98% were achieved. It wasn't even close to turning profits for the month. We (we, because i am doing this with a friend of mine) faced some huge beginner problems regarding size of stakes, picking an option when we have different selections on a same match, missing matches due to life etc. At this point i can proudly say most of them have been removed or at least the effects of them aren't affecting the ROI to that extent.

However, the biggest mistake during the first month was discovered late and probably ate away most of the winnings (or in our case brought most of the losses). And it was so simple... We totally underestimated the blow our bankroll takes with the odds diminishing before the match starts. Taking a match on 1.8 when the tipsters that suggested it took it at 2.00 kills any chance you ever stood. When we realized that, most of the damage was done. I am not saying that we fixed all the problems now, the system is still negative, but at least there's a dim light at the end of the tunnel.

I'll keep you updated.