I was going over today's schedule, unable to find any real value (besides maybe the two matches i already posted) and I gave odds a really deep thought.
Team A plays team B. Team A is priced at 2.00 to win the match. In probability terms, the bookmaker expects team A will win 50% of the matches these teams will play under the current circumstances. Injuries, suspensions, weather, home field etc.are all factors that affect these odds given by the bookie. The average Joe will go online, check the odds for the A vs.B match and pick a side. This effectively turns the situation into a head to head matchup: the bookie vs. the average Joe. And the random punter stands NO CHANCE!
Let me elaborate why I think this:
1. The bookie has the edge before the duel even starts. No bookmakers give 100% of the book. The best offer is around 95% giving a 5% edge to the house. This means our average Joe needs to be 5% better than the house just to break even.
2. The bookmakers offer the odds based on an industry-wide average created by some of the sharpest minds following the sport in question. If you are betting with bet365 you not only have to beat their bookmakers, but the bookmakers of all the others bookies, since they are following the trends and movements of odds and none of them stays behind on a trend. This moves the match into a more colossal proportion: Average Joe vs. The whole betting industry (+ their 5% edge). I know who am I betting on in this match.
3. Average Joe's train of thought that he uses to make the pick might be
incomplete (hasn't heard about the latest injury, didn't read about the suspended players),
biased (he's a huge team A fan) or flat out
flawed (team A hasn't drawn in 37 matches in a row, they are due this time). The bookies are the exact opposite: their information is up to date and implemented into the odds at all times. They are not biased, quite the opposite, they are expecting to take the right amount of bets on each side and close out the book with profit regardless of the outcome of the match (remember the 5% mentioned earlier?). They don't use flawed logic in determining the odds. They are trying to represent the exact probabilities of a team succeeding in any given match.
Reading this on a blog trying to prove money can be made by smart betting might send out a mixed signal. The truth is, to find the light at the end of the tunnel you have to dig deep and work hard. There are people that are living off betting for decades. That proves its doable. That's the good news. The bad news, its not for everybody. Not everyone can do it and not everyone can understand what makes a bettor a profitable one. Its a long, nerve-wracking road. Just ask any professional gambler whether they would change the profession they chose if they could go back in time.
To end this on a more positive note I'll try and summarize what i think average Joes should do before ever venturing on a more serious betting journey.
1. Information is king. If you are able to get some fresh information that you are certain isn't contained in the existing odds MILK IT! Milk it until it dries out and the market adjusts to it.
2. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Read some good bankroll management tactics, the internet is full of them. Just because you think a bet is huge value doesn't mean you should lose your house on it. There will be another day, another match. If you have what to bet with, that is.
3. Follow the sport you're betting on closely. If you're betting just to make your Sunday evening more fun you don't have to do this. This whole post is not addressed to you in that case. But if you want to get semi-serious about betting you have to do your homework. Knowing how the teams breath is the only way you might get a slight edge over the bookie and his house edge.
4. This is connected to 3. Don't go into many markets. Just because you know a lot about the Chinese 2. ping-pong division that doesn't mean you will be a good Japanese volleyball punter. Mixing the two will only take the edge you have in the ping-pong and give it back to the bookie. Stick to what you're good at and don't bet on other sports just because there are no matches in your fields of expertise. Instead of despairing about it you should cherish those moments. They will give you time to catch up and absorb all the info you might have missed thus reaffirming your edge over the bookie.
5. READING and RESEARCH. Never stop doing this. Because as we speak, on a random small blog somewhere, the newest 100% winning strategy is being developed. If you hurry up and find it today you will be ahead of the curve and will be able to milk it before the market, that ugly ever-adjustable bastard, does what it always does: ADJUST.
On a side note, hot ladies...
