Pick 154: Lechia Gdansk- Belchatow

Two teams that are atrocious away from home. Belchatow with league worst 0-0-4 away and Lechia with 1-0-4. However Lechia at home seem to be a tough nut to crack. They are at 1-2-0 with a 3-2 goal difference.
I see todays match supporting these trends and i see a tight home win with only a few goals scored on both sides.

Pick: Gdansk @1.95 (Expect)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 153: Eintracht Frankfurt- Union Berlin

Eintracht is in excellent form and is surely on track to return to the Bundesliga. They have a 5-4-0 score with 23-9 goal difference. After 3 consecutive draws at home they finally broke the spell on 16.9 by beating Hansa 4-1.
Union is more of a home team with 4-0-1 score at home and a 0-2-2 score away from home. They usually play a more defensive style away from Berlin and that hasnt proven as a successful away tactic for them.

Pick: Eintracht(-1) AH @1.77 (Sbobet)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 152: Shakthar- APOEL

Shakhtar lost the first round match against Porto after leading 1-0. They basically paid the price for trying to defend a tiny lead in a tough away match and i am sure they have taken out some lessons from that. Today's opponent isn't the same caliber as Porto and will surely allow them more space and opportunities than Porto. Not that they are bad or anything, its just that the combination of a long trip away to a tough place to play at and the sense of not being in a do-or-die match might make them enter the matchup a bit too relaxed. And that little moment might be enough for Shakhtar to run away with this one.

Pick: Shakhtar (-1) AH @2.1 (Dafabet)
Stake: 100

Pick 151: IFK Ystads- Helsingborg

Swedish handball alsvenskan. Ladbrokes are ridiculously out of synch with the rest of the bookies and are offering Ystads at 5.00, while the average odds are 3.6. Must take, no matter what.

Pick: Ystads @5.00 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 25

Result: LOST

Pick 150: Worcester Warriors- Harlequin

The handicap has moved from +2.5 to +5.5 on Worcester, but Will Hill still have it at 2.5 so i will go where the money are here and take Harlequin.

Pick: Harlequin (-2.5) @1.8 (Will Hill)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 149: Israel- Poland

A pick from the European volleyball championships for women, based purely on the fact that its a good buy. Nordic bet are way of the mark here and still are offering the total at 130.5 while all of the other bookies are much higher.

Pick: Over 130.5 @1.85 (nordicbet)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 148: Morecambe-Bristol Rovers

Morecambe started the season in sensational form with a 6-2-1 score with 19:5 goal difference. The only defeat came in the first round against Barnet and they havent looked back ever since. Its true that they are (quite untraditionally) better away than they are at home but a 2-1-1 score with 9:2 goal difference is hardly something to be ashamed of. Besides the aforementioned loss to Barnet, they also drew 1-1 with Bradford and defeated Crawley (5-1-3 so far) 6-0(!!) and Aldershot (2nd best in the away table).
Bristol play hot and cold, they were able to defeat Shrewsbury 1-0, but also lost to the likes of Aldershot and Crawley. Seing how they lost 4-1 to a team Morecambe defeated 6-0 i cant understand why the odds on the home win are where they are today.

Pick: Morecambe @2.25 (12bet)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 147: Drammen- Haslum

Excellent opportunity on Pinnacle as they seem to have pushed the spread a bit too high here. This match opened with a total of 56.5 and now its at 64.

Pick: Under 64 goals @1.97 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: VOID

Pick 146: Eslovs-Hasto

This is a match from the Swedish handball Alsvenskan league. Purely picked on the basis that Ladbrokes are asleep on this one and still offering 2.3 for the away win, while the rest of the bookies are offering it at 2.00.
When a great product is offered at a great price you have positive expectation every time you buy it even if you dont know how to use it. To simplify it: You've never used nor will use product X. You have almost perfect information on product X from all the sellers in the area and you've found a seller that is selling it at 70% the average price. You buy the product. The seller realizes he made a mistake in the pricing and corrects it. You have a 30% margin in which you can sell the product and profit. Sounds easy, right:)?

Pick: Hasto @2.3 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 145: Australia- USA

A match from the rugby world cup. The margin on this match has moved into 61.5 which is a ridiculous spread even if the difference in quality is as big as it is. I really dont see a point in Australia pressing to win by a huge difference once they secure the win here.

Pick: USA +61.5 @2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 144: Spain- Sweden

Staying with handball, this time women's. This match is a perfect example why you should follow the trends and have a lot of bookmaker options because a small gain i odds can make a huge difference in the long run.
This match opened with a spread of 52.2 total and this has diminished into 48.5 and i believe it might fall even further, half or maybe one more point down. However, since the spread is far below what i expect the outcome to be, i will take it now.

Pick: Over 48.5 @1.98 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 143: Sandefjord- Drammen

Every time these two teams have met in the past there has been a lot of goals. The last 5 matches between them went over 60. Spread is at 60.5 at the moment and i feel this is a gift from the bookies, considering that the original spread was at 66.

Pick: Over 60.5 @2.00 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 142: Gil- Chardy

Just because Betsafe seem to be sleeping at the moment i am going to take this match. They still have Chardy at 1.95 while the rest of the bookies go as low as 1.6(bwin).
I am not so sure Chardy is that big of a favorite to deserve the 1.6, but 1.95 is simply too much. I am saying this only because Chardy is comming back from an injury and had a rough stretch at the US hardcourts. Clay is more of a home for him so i think he shouldnt have a problem against Gill.

Pick: Chardy @1.95(Betsafe)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 141: Brantford- TFC Academy

Canadian CSL league match. Not really sure whats going on here but the odds for Unders are rising since the moment they were published. My personal pick will be Under 3.5 goals at a whopping 1.95. Only this afternoon the odds on that were 1.60 and they've been on the rise ever since.
The teams taking part here aren't the biggest scorers. Brantford has 27 goals scored in 22 matches and TFC has 28 in 19 matches played. The last 4 matches TFC has played were under 3.5.

Pick: Under 3.5 @1.95(bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 140: Denver Broncos- Cincinnati Bengals

Denver were a bigger favorite when the odds came out with odds in the low 1.40s. Market support fell down and now they can be found at around 1.55. This subsequently dropped the spread at a very reasonable -3 which i'd be more than happy to get at the prices offered.

Pick: Broncos (-3)AH @1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 139: Skovde- Guif

A match from the Swedish handball league. Bookmakers set the line at first at 62.5 goals. There are two problems with this thing. First 60 is a psychological line over which not many people are willing to bet, even though the game is , at least on paper a favorite to reach the 60 goals mark. Second, handball is not a heavily followed sport and if a lot of money go in on one side there is no chance the bookie will balance the bets on both sides in time, unless they radically slash the margin and leave some cushion between in which they hope the match wont finish.
Todays match is the perfect example. The spread got slashed to 58.5 and i'd be more than willing to take the overs.
In the last 10 matchups (that's all i could find) between these two teams the total has gone over the mark of 56.5.

Pick: Over 58.5 @1.95 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 138: Saracens- Warriors

A match from the Aviva premiership, Saracens handicap moved from 3.5 to 16.5. Ladbrokes were the first to go out with the spread and i think they are very good at handicaping rugby. That makes my decision a no-brainer after the spread moved to 16.5. I am going to trust their first projection of the game and bet on the Warriors.

Bet: Warriors +16.5 @2.02 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result:WON

Pick 137: Elda Prestigia- Metalurg

This is a match from the female handball Champions League. Overwhelming support has come on Metalurg's side since the odds have been published. This resulted in the spread moving from -0.5 to +2.5. That i can understand, as some influential tipsters have been on Metalurgs side early. But one thing i cant understand is why the total moved from 51.5 to 46.5. If anything, the strong confidence behind Metalurg should reinforce the fact that there will be a lot of goals scored. This way i feel we are getting another bargain from Pinnacle.

Pick: Over 46.5 goals @1.94 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 136: Vitesse- Roda

Ladbrokes seem to be the slowest bookie to react to market changes lately. While there is a strong downward trend in bookies odds all over the place Ladbrokes are still sticking to 2.00 for the home win here. The average home odds in other bookies is under 1.90 with odds ranging from 1.79 to 1.91.
Form wise Vitesse has been flawless at home so far, wining 2 of 2. They are coming of a rough stretch with two consecutive defeats against AZ and Ajax. Though those two losses are nothing to be ashamed off, the easiness of the victories for the home teams must have set all types of alarms off in the squad. They should go out fighting today. Watch out for Bony, he's most likely to score from the home team.
Roda is more of a home team, both their wins came at their home pitch. They've beat Twente and Groningen at home, but also suffered a defeat against Walwijk. On top of that they've lost both their away matches convincingly 3-0 and 3-1 against Utrecht and Feyenord.

Pick: Vitesse @2.00 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 135: Sokolov- Sparta Prague B

Sokolov are a good team but having home win odds at 1.5 is just ridiculous. Sparta B has only three points but they were missing all of the U19 national team players for most of the matches so far. Just a reminder, Czech Republic finished that tournament 2nd, losing to Spain in the final. This means some good players came back in the team and surely they will be more competitive than this far in the competition. This match starts in less than 30 min so hurry up.

Pick: Sparta (+1)AH @1.86 (Allyoubet)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 134: Racing-Metro92- Clermont

This is a Top 14 match and its found its way on the blog because there is a discrepancy in what Ladbrokes are offering in comparison to the rest of the bookies. As i was lurking around i noticed the general trend was the spread moving from 6.5 to 8.5 and Ladbrokes were offering both sides at 1.9 with a spread of 6.0. Needless to say i had to try and capitalize on that. Just beware, this is an european handicap, if home team wins by 6 bet is lost.

Pick: Racing (-6.0)@1.9 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 133: Zahlavova-Strycova -Hlavackova

I was waiting for this one to hit 2.00 to take it. I am totally happy to take a player that is 2-0 in the head to head matchup (one of the matches played this year) at odds of 2.0. To be fair i didn't expect the odds to get that high provided she started at 1.80, but i guess the market disagrees with me. If there is a reason for these odd odds movement beyond my knowledge than so be it. But if everything is ok with Zahlavova than these odds are a steal.

Pick: Zahlavova-Strycova @2.04 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 132: Montpellier- Istres

This is a match from the French handball championship. I believe the spread got overly inflated and Istres should be able to pull a win with 12.5 added to their score. Over the last 4 matches where Montpellier was playing Istres at home they've won once but only once managed to cover a 12.5 spread in 2008. All teams in the French league can play good handball and on a given day anyone can beat anyone (or make the fav work for the win, for all we care:)).

Pick: Istres +12.5 @1.85 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 131: Spain- Macedonia

I understand that Macedonia is a big outsider in this match, but a 18.5 spread is just too much. The biggest loss Macedonia suffered for the duration of the tournament was by 5 points to Montenegro in overtime. The only other loss was against Russia with a weird 3-pointer in the last second of the match. Now, all of the sudden a 19 point spread is set in the semifinals of the championship.
I don't really see how Macedonia can win this game, but they've kept every single match they've played so far tight and if they manage to do that at least for 3 quarters today the spread shouldn't be covered by Spain at the end. With their defense as tight as it was against Lithuania this should be a low scoring match.
There is an emotional factor as well as the quality factor involved. The whole country is standing behind its players and a blowout victory will be a huge disappointment and the players know that.
As far as Spain is concerned they've had a smooth ride so far, with the only hiccup coming against Turkey in a meaningless match. Out of all the matches they've played though there were only three blowout victories that would cover today's spread. One was against Great Britain, second against Serbia and third against France, where most of France's best players were rested.

Pick: Macedonia +18.5 @1.8 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 130: Paok- Tottenham

Friedel, Bale, Kaboul, Gallas, Dawson, King, Assou-Ekotto, Jenas, Bentley, Huddlestone, Lennon, Parker, Van der Vaart, Modric, Kranjcar, Rose, Sandro, Pienaar, Adebayor and Defoe. Am i listing Tottenham's team for today? No! I am listing their players that will not play in Greece. With odds of 2.6 available for PAOK i would be a fool not to take this opportunity. Under 2.5 is also a good bet as PAOK are missing two strikers.

Pick: PAOK @2.63
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 129: Erakovic- Falconi

This match has caught my attention due to the odd price movement. Erakovic was heavily favored when the odds came out with odds as low as 1.60-70 and then all of a sudden a lot of money came in on Falcone and shifted the odds in favor of her. Now you can find Erakovic at odds above 2 and i surely believe she has at least 50-50 shot at this match. She showed some stellar performances on hard court this year by beating Azarenka, Arvidson and Vesnina and showed some really poor performances by losing to Lucic. With that Jackyl and Hyde attitude it sure is good to put the money on odds above 2.0 and hope the right Erakovic shows up.

Pick: Erakovic @2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 128: Vaduz- Delemont

Seems a lot of money went in on Vaduz here. The odds for the home win plummeted and there is absolutely no value left in betting on the home team. In fact, the dropping odds even made the away team the nicer bet proposition.

Pick: Delemont(+1.5) AH@1.80 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: Lost

Pick 127: Ciudad Real- Valladolid

This is a match from the Spanish handball league. I chose it because the spread moved from -5 to -8 and 9 goals difference is huge. I don't believe there is a team in the Spanish league that will be losing matches by that margin on regular basis.

Pick: Valladolid (+8)AH @1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 126: Cleveland Browns- Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure how long these odds are going to stay like this so pound on it until they are there. The usual line set up by the bookies is -6.5 and Victor Chandler are giving them at -3.5 and odds of 1.87 for the home win. Whether they claim they are better at capping the NFL games or they just made a mistake remains to be seen.

Pick: Cleveland (-3.5) @1.87 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 125: Nordsjaelland- Sonderjyske

This is a match from the Danish Jack&Jones Handball league, which i know nothing of. However i know something about moving odds and spreads and what that means. In this match the spread went from +3.5 to -3.5. This in terms means that a LOT of money came in on the home side and the bookies are having a last ditch attempt to generate some income on the away side. With the spread changing 7 units i'd be more than happy to give them some action. It can't be that they set up the line that terribly the first time. I think they've overreacted on some rich guy (or a group following an important tipster) entering the market on the home win with a lot of money and overkilled the spread on the opposite side.

Pick: Sonderjyske (+3.5) @2 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 124: Bray- St.Patricks

Bray has nowhere to go in the table and a lot of missing players, most of them in deffence. D. Massey, A. Mitchell, D. O'Connor, C. Shields, G. Dempsey and M. Gregg. All of them have over 20 starts in the 27 matches they've played this season. St. Patricks will be missing one forward (Daly). The rest of the crew is in good shape and ready to battle for europa league spots in the last two matches.

Pick: St.Patrics @1.8 (dOXXBET)
Stake: 100

RESULT:WON

Pick 123: Dukla Prague- Hradec Kralove

I see nothing between these two teams in this match. Details will decide the winner and i am sure Hradec will be the more creative team in the match. That didn't always work out good for them in the past as they have lost many matches where they outplayed the opponent and lost. Best example is a pre-season match between these two where Hradec was the one playing, but Dukla was the one scoring and they ended up winning 3-1. However, Hradec is comming out of yet another spell of matches played in that fashion, where the lost 3 times in a row and were playing equally or better than the opponent and after these three matches they had two weeks off to rethink things and regroup and i think they will return today with a fresher look and score a few.

Pick: Hradec Kralove(+0)AH @2.08 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

RESULT:LOST

Pick 122: Mypa- Marienhamn

I was surprised to see the odds above 2.00 on the home win here. Mypa is in good form, having won the last two games and Marienhamn is in atrocious form, having lost 4 of the last 5. At home Mypa are hot and cold with 5-1-5 score and Marienhamn are a terible away team with 2-1-9, goal difference 7-19 and lost the last 5 away matches.

Pick: Mypa win @2.06 (pinnacle)
Stake: 100

RESULT: LOST

Pick 121: Lithuania- Serbia

These odds are way too good to miss. Serbia is at 2.17 and i see no particular reason why Lithuania is to be treated as a favorite here.It will all come down to who picks up more rebounds and i think Lithuania is an underdog there, even more so after losing their center Petravicius to injury. Serbia has won all the games in which they out-rebounded their opponents and lost the only one where they lost in this stat (against France).

Pick: Serbia @2.17 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

RESULT: LOST

Pick 120: Isner- Simon

Simon had an emotionally draining match in the last round against Del Potro and i find betting against players winning those matches very profitable. Isner on the other hand had a smooth way to this round, most games played against Baghdatis in the first round. He is in great form, winning the tournament in Winston Salem last week and playing the best tennis in his career. American hardcourts seem to be extracting an extra effort of all US players and i wouldnt be surprised if we saw Isner in the semifinal, maybe even further.

Pick: Isner(-3.5) @2.75 (paddypower)
Stake: 75

RESULT: LOST

Pick 119: Austria-Turkey

Serdar Kesimal, Selçuk Inan , Nuri Sahin , Emre Belezoglu , Hamit Altintop and Gökhan Gönül are missing in Turkey's squad. The rest of the team, at least the players that play in the home championship don't have any competitive matches under their belts this season. Austria is in a slump, but has been scoring a lot of goals even when losing the match. Concidering how generous the odds on them are this is surely worth a try. There's a downward trend in the HW odds from about 3.4 to around 3.0 where they are now.

Pick: Austria @3.2 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 118: Bosnia- Belarus

Bosnia is a big favorite here, for some apparent reason, but what everyone seem to forget is that Belarus can stifle a match like there is no tomorrow. France made sure of this and basically most of their opponents experienced this in their previous matches. Their goal difference is 6-4 after 8 matches and this probably sums it up the best.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.83 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result:WON

Pick 117: Macedonia- Finland

Macedonia has a very good front-court with Antic, Gecevski, Cekovski and Samardziski and nothing comes easy in the paint against them. However, the last two wins against Croatia and Greece might be a bit emotionally draining and they might enter this match a bit rusty. If the spread was 7 or more i might have been tempted to take Finland, but this way i think the Under 148.5 might be a better alternative. The only real high scoring match Finland played was against Croatia 84-79. Yesterdays blow out against Bosnia isn't a realistic representation of their offensive strength since Bosnia took out their best players in order for them to be fresh for Croatia. Had it been close, the total would have been much lower.

Pick: Under 148.5 @1.9 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 116: Israel- Latvia

I was surprised to see that this match is expected to be the highest scoring one of the day. Both teams have been terrible so far and the maximum any of them scored was 80 (Israel against Serbia). With the spread at 161.5 both teams are expected to reach that mark. For that to happen someone will have to generate a lot of offense for both teams and i just cant see that happening looking at both rosters. The way i see it this will be an ugly game with the winner decided by a longish run in the third or fourth.

Pick: Under 161.5 @1.9(Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 115: Swindon- Rotheram

Swindon was the hot favorite for the league before it started but after the first round the wheels fell totally off. They lost the next four matches after an opening win and emotions are very heated in the squad. This culminated during this weeks match against Southampton where the manager Di Canio had a huge fight with the best striker Clarke and told media he wont be selecting him in the squad two weeks after buying him from QPR.
I've heard an interview with Di Canio where he praises the way they create chances and the only thing missing is the finishing. Hopefully with the change upfront realization of chances will increase too. The team (and subsequently the odds) is not that bad as it seems at the moment and surely a televised match might be the ignition spark to get the team going.

Pick: Swindon (-0.25)AH @2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result:3-2

Pick 114: Kunitsyn- Melzer

Kunitsyn had a wonderful come-back win yesterday when he managed to overcome a 0-2 deficit and win against Bachinger. Melzer is a totally different animal, but i still think they are more or less evenly matched and that we're in for a long one here.
Their only head to head adds to the credibility of this theory because there was virtually nothing between those two and the match ended 6-4 3-6 6-3 in favor of Kunitsyn. However, this was 2008 (on clay) so we shouldn't put that much emphasis on it. Either way i still think Kunitsyn is good enough for a set here, maybe even more.

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @1.72 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 3-2

Pick 113: Andora- Armenia

I like the odds on the away team here. They have played some great matches and got unlucky in a few crucial moments, otherwise they would have been in contention for one of the top places, however impossible that might seem. They lost 2 points in the 94th minute in Macedonia on a really questionable penalty. Also lost to Ireland at home with a goal in the 76th minute and beat Slovakia at home and drew away with Russia.
Their oponent today is Andora, a team they beat 4-0 at home and should have no problem beating again easily. In total they have score 5-1-0 with them with a goal difference 17-2.

Pick: Armenia -1.5 @2.07 (188bet)
Stake: 100

Result: WIN

Pick 112: Dolgopolov- Cipolla

Cipolla has defeated some powerful opposition in the previous few weeks on the way to this match. Clement, Ilhan, Sweeting, Nishikori are all on that list and i am not sure Dolgopolov can defeat most of them in straight sets. They've met once before in a tight match, Dolgopolov won 2-1. From all of these facts i deducted there will be a few tight sets in this one and i will pick the Over 3.5 sets as my bet. You can also try the "Tiebreak in the match" market, where "Yes" is offered at a price over 2.

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @2.2(Bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: 3-2