1. Jihlava - Havirov
2. Sumperk- Kadan
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Russia to get stopped second day in a row
Russia- Slovakia (Sochi Olympics Ice Hockey tournament)
Slovakia, after the colossal embarrassment they suffered yesterday will want to put in a better display. They will move some pieces around to achieve that, starting with the goalie. For today's match they are fielding Jan Laco from KHL's Donbas, who has a 1.47 GAA and 94% save percentage in 12 matches on goal for the Ukranian team. If he has a good start to the match he can spark a better performance from the Slovaks.
The Russians lost an epic match against USA yesterday in a shootout and i believe it will be much harder to find the motivation against Slovakia today. They might underestimate Slovakia and let them get an early lead, which might prove disastrous because Slovakia is actually a better suited team to play on the counter-attack, rather than attack most of the match. They sure proved that yesterday against Slovenia.
I chose Slovakia on the double chance, but if you are into riskier, high reward bets, the draw looks very appealing to me at this moment. It can be found at odds of 12.
Pick: Slovakia or draw (60 mins) @6.5 (MarathonBet)
Tuesday, February 4, 2014
Looking for a jackpot
Posted on Betrush
Benatky- Havlickuv Brod
I have no clue why are the odds so tilted towards Benatky here. It is true that Benatky are coming of a 6 game wining streak, but it's visible that they are running out of juice and a loss is looming any moment now. Their last match against Budejovice was a low tempo match where anyone could come away with the victory. If the reports are true Budejovice were even the better team in that match. At the end Benatky won after penalty shootout. Looking at tomorrow's match, I wouldn't favor any team in this league to easily win a match coming against Havlickuv Brod after 4 wins against teams such as Usti, the leader Mlada Boleslav, second Olomouc and away in Budejovice.
If this didnt sound persuasive enough, read on. Benatky played Budejovice without their 2nd, 3rd and 5th top productive players. Barta (37g/14g/14a), Jonak (44g/12g/11a) and Dusek (18g/ 6g/ 14a) were out. I dont have the team report for tomorrow, but if they weren't fit Monday, what are the odds they will be fit Wednesday?
Rebel is not in top form admitedly, lost the home match against Jihlava monday in a powerplay dominated shootout and before that won against weak Beroun in a very limp fashion. Even so, a team that has won 6 of the last 10 matches is priced at 6.5. No brainer really.
Pick: 2 (60 min) @6.5 Marathonbet
Benatky- Havlickuv Brod
I have no clue why are the odds so tilted towards Benatky here. It is true that Benatky are coming of a 6 game wining streak, but it's visible that they are running out of juice and a loss is looming any moment now. Their last match against Budejovice was a low tempo match where anyone could come away with the victory. If the reports are true Budejovice were even the better team in that match. At the end Benatky won after penalty shootout. Looking at tomorrow's match, I wouldn't favor any team in this league to easily win a match coming against Havlickuv Brod after 4 wins against teams such as Usti, the leader Mlada Boleslav, second Olomouc and away in Budejovice.
If this didnt sound persuasive enough, read on. Benatky played Budejovice without their 2nd, 3rd and 5th top productive players. Barta (37g/14g/14a), Jonak (44g/12g/11a) and Dusek (18g/ 6g/ 14a) were out. I dont have the team report for tomorrow, but if they weren't fit Monday, what are the odds they will be fit Wednesday?
Rebel is not in top form admitedly, lost the home match against Jihlava monday in a powerplay dominated shootout and before that won against weak Beroun in a very limp fashion. Even so, a team that has won 6 of the last 10 matches is priced at 6.5. No brainer really.
Pick: 2 (60 min) @6.5 Marathonbet
Sunday, February 2, 2014
Looking for the big draw
Trebic- Beroun
Again going with a value bet from the Czech 1st league.
Trebic are massive favorites if you trust the odds and most of the statistical evidence points to a clear home win. Trebic, however, haven’t been convincing lately and given the fact they have a certain spot in the playoffs there might be a slight place for a slip-up. At these odds I am more than willing to take the chance. The last 4 Trebic matches ended up in one goal difference, 2 of them going into overtime.
Beroun are coming out of a scrappy match against Havlickuv Brod they lost late in the third. Both coaches in the interviews after the match agreed that Beroun deserved at least a point out of the encounter. Against H.Brod there was a significant improvement in their defensive play, resulting in 31 shots allowed. In the 7 matches previous to that they were allowing 50+ shots on average. Even with that sort of leaky defense they held the table leader Mlada Boleslav to a regulation draw and managed one goal wins against in-form Benatky, 3rd placed Jihlava and average Usti nad Labem. That brings the total to 5 one goal matches in the last 8.
My thesis here is that the match will be much closer than the odds make it appear and the 6.3 odds for a regular time draw are just too good to miss out on. To put things into perspective, the last match between these two teams was played 11.11.2013 and the best odds for the draw were 4.5. Trebic was in a better form at that point than they are today, having won 3 of 4. Beroun came into that match riding a 4 match losing streak. I know that looking at the odds then and now is a very general assumption, but I just can’t see how an increase of 40% in the odds for a draw can be justified. A scrappy match that can go either way is well within the options here.
Pick: Draw (60 min.) @ 6.3 on Marathonbet
Czech hockey pick for the day
Also posted on Betrush. You can see my czech hockey stats there.
Pardubice - Vitkovice
This one promises to be a high quality contest. I am edging with the away team Vitkovice to win it by two or more just because of the bookies irrational approach to pricing it. Namely, the team that’s riding a seven away games wining streak, coming off full 7 days of rest is being priced as the underdog. The win odds are moving around 1.72 for Pardubice and 2.15 for Vitkovice. The least they could do was to price it 50/50.
Pardubice is a typical “hot and cold” type of team. The last 5 matches they changed wins and losses on regular basis, winning the last one played away in Zlin. Before that there was a 4 match losing streak. Before that streak they took points in 5 of the 6 previous matches. Even within a single game they are prone to sudden lapses in concentration. In the penultimate match, played away at Kladno, one of the weakest teams in the league, they took a 3-0 lead, only to lose the match 4-3 in overtime. The last match against Zlin they played with poise and intensity, winning it 4-1 (the 4th goal being an empty-netter) so I am hoping they won’t be able to sustain that intensity level for a second match in three days, with a travel from Zlin (on the south of Czech Republic) to Pardubice (central Bohemia region) in between.
Vitkovice is coming fresh off a 7 day break due to the Davis cup matches being played in their home arena. Having enough time to travel and prepare for the match must give them some sort of edge. If anything, they had a chance to tend to all the minor health issues. Reportedly Michal Hlinka (25 matches, 3 goals, 6 assists, 11:31 average time on ice)and Michael Vandas (38 matches, 7 goals, 8 assists, 10:44 TOI) complained on injuries and their presence is not confirmed yet. Their seven consecutive away wins helped them solidify their position as the best away team in the league with a 14-7 record. Sparta is second with 12-9.
Most likely the winner will be decided by details and when it comes to high pressure no-mistake-allowed matches I trust Vitkovice more than I do Pardubice. If they enter the match with the intensity they’ve shown in their recent away matches there is a fair chance they can blow the contest open early and contain their lead until the end.
Tip: Vitkovice (-1EH) 2 @4.1 on Unibet
This one promises to be a high quality contest. I am edging with the away team Vitkovice to win it by two or more just because of the bookies irrational approach to pricing it. Namely, the team that’s riding a seven away games wining streak, coming off full 7 days of rest is being priced as the underdog. The win odds are moving around 1.72 for Pardubice and 2.15 for Vitkovice. The least they could do was to price it 50/50.
Pardubice is a typical “hot and cold” type of team. The last 5 matches they changed wins and losses on regular basis, winning the last one played away in Zlin. Before that there was a 4 match losing streak. Before that streak they took points in 5 of the 6 previous matches. Even within a single game they are prone to sudden lapses in concentration. In the penultimate match, played away at Kladno, one of the weakest teams in the league, they took a 3-0 lead, only to lose the match 4-3 in overtime. The last match against Zlin they played with poise and intensity, winning it 4-1 (the 4th goal being an empty-netter) so I am hoping they won’t be able to sustain that intensity level for a second match in three days, with a travel from Zlin (on the south of Czech Republic) to Pardubice (central Bohemia region) in between.
Vitkovice is coming fresh off a 7 day break due to the Davis cup matches being played in their home arena. Having enough time to travel and prepare for the match must give them some sort of edge. If anything, they had a chance to tend to all the minor health issues. Reportedly Michal Hlinka (25 matches, 3 goals, 6 assists, 11:31 average time on ice)and Michael Vandas (38 matches, 7 goals, 8 assists, 10:44 TOI) complained on injuries and their presence is not confirmed yet. Their seven consecutive away wins helped them solidify their position as the best away team in the league with a 14-7 record. Sparta is second with 12-9.
Most likely the winner will be decided by details and when it comes to high pressure no-mistake-allowed matches I trust Vitkovice more than I do Pardubice. If they enter the match with the intensity they’ve shown in their recent away matches there is a fair chance they can blow the contest open early and contain their lead until the end.
Tip: Vitkovice (-1EH) 2 @4.1 on Unibet
Saturday, February 1, 2014
A tip for the braver heart
I posted this one on betrush as well.
Jihlava- Ceske Budejovice
A speculative bet based on my opinion that the odds on it are a bit off.
Although they are the favorites, i wouldn't say Jihlava will be dominating this match. They had an average January at best, won 5 lost 5. Of those losses one was to the leaders Mlada Boleslav away, one to a playoff contender Havirov (7-1 loss!) and three bad losses at the hands of Usti nad Labem (9th place) , Beroun (11th place) and Kadan (13th place of 14).
Ceske Budejovice are the negative surprise of the season. Though they were one of the favorites to win the league pre-season they are standing 12 and their playoff hopes are pure sciense fiction at this stage. They are showing signs of improvement lately, winning 3 of their last 4, 2 of those wins coming away from their own arena. The captain Ales Kotalik is an experienced ex-NHL player and their leading scorer with 24 points. They will be missing the forward Skuhravy, who was used by the extraleague team Litvinov in their match yesterday against Plzen. Though he is a productive scorer, he is also the most penalized player on the squad. If they want to take away three points from an away match against Jihlava they must show flawless discipline, so Skuhravy's absence might come as a blessing in disguise. Because of Skuhravy's inclusion in Litvinov, Budejovice got Roman Psurny from Litvinov and he is proving to be an excellent addition to the team scoring 4 times and assisting 3 times in the 6 matches he's played for Budejovice this season. His extraleague record for Litvinov for the season is 32 matches and 1goal and 1 assist only in 10.5 minutes on ice on average.
Tip: 2 (60 minutes) @6.00 (Ladbrokes)
Jihlava- Ceske Budejovice
A speculative bet based on my opinion that the odds on it are a bit off.
Although they are the favorites, i wouldn't say Jihlava will be dominating this match. They had an average January at best, won 5 lost 5. Of those losses one was to the leaders Mlada Boleslav away, one to a playoff contender Havirov (7-1 loss!) and three bad losses at the hands of Usti nad Labem (9th place) , Beroun (11th place) and Kadan (13th place of 14).
Ceske Budejovice are the negative surprise of the season. Though they were one of the favorites to win the league pre-season they are standing 12 and their playoff hopes are pure sciense fiction at this stage. They are showing signs of improvement lately, winning 3 of their last 4, 2 of those wins coming away from their own arena. The captain Ales Kotalik is an experienced ex-NHL player and their leading scorer with 24 points. They will be missing the forward Skuhravy, who was used by the extraleague team Litvinov in their match yesterday against Plzen. Though he is a productive scorer, he is also the most penalized player on the squad. If they want to take away three points from an away match against Jihlava they must show flawless discipline, so Skuhravy's absence might come as a blessing in disguise. Because of Skuhravy's inclusion in Litvinov, Budejovice got Roman Psurny from Litvinov and he is proving to be an excellent addition to the team scoring 4 times and assisting 3 times in the 6 matches he's played for Budejovice this season. His extraleague record for Litvinov for the season is 32 matches and 1goal and 1 assist only in 10.5 minutes on ice on average.
Tip: 2 (60 minutes) @6.00 (Ladbrokes)
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