Reflections on August

August sucked!! Bigtime!! It wiped out all the profits and left me questioning myself even though i know in most of the picks i didn't do as terrible as the results might seem. Since one time radical exceptions from the predicted path are not uncommon i am going to write this month off to variance and promise i will do better preparation of the picks. It seems that some picks, when i look back retrospectively were a bit forced and those things don't come out well when you push it.
I will also try my best to find experts from different leagues and regions and occasionally add some of their tips on the blog, of course if they grant me permission to do that. This process of selecting them might be a bit longish so please have patience with that. Some of their tips might occur during September, but that is not 100% sure.
Good luck to all and lets kick some ass in September!

Pick 111: Atletico Madrid- Osasuna

Cant see why the odds went so high on Atletico here. They started their season early with the Europa league qualifications and they will surely be more ready for the season campaign then Osasuna at the moment. The handicap -0.5 at 1.78 is just too tempting.

Pick: At.Madrid (-0.5) @1.78 (dafabet)
Stake: 100

Result: Lost

Pick 110: Slask Wroclaw- Widzew Lodz

Slask have an excellent start to the campaign (3-1-0) with 8:2 goal difference. Lodz on the other hand have a 1-3-0 score and 3:2 goal difference. Taking all of this into consideration i expect a very tight match with one goal making the difference and i expect that goal to be scored by Slask.

Pick: Slask(-0.5) @2.1 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: Lost

Pick 109:Helsingborg- Orebro

Both teams high scoring, both teams in form. They should create a lot of scoring chances and i see no problem in this one reaching the 2.5 mark early.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.92 (Dafabet)
Stake: 50

Result: Lost

Pick 108: FC Copenhagen- Silkeborg

If we look at the trends only, this one should be borderline 2 or 3 goals match. However, FC Copenhagens home matches shouldn't be projected with the same parameters like other games because of FC's abbility to score a lot of goals on a weaker opposition. Therefore i am going with the over2.5 here.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.67 (pinnacle)
Stake: 100

Result:Won

Pick 107: Ceske Budejovice-Jablonec

I never liked betting on Budejovice but the odds on them are just too tempting. They are a whole different team at home than they are away. its true they lost the first two home matches, but they lost it to Olomouc and Sparta and that is nothing to be ashamed of. Pressure is rising on coach Kotrba and surely this is a good moment for his boys to shine, otherwise he's gone.
Statistically looking Jablonec has won only 2 of 14 matches in Budejovice and that is why i think the AH +0.5 on Budejovice is rock solid.

Pick: Budejovice +0.5 @(2.05) Dafabet
Stake:100

Result:Lost

Pick 106: Znojmo- Banik Sokolov

Both teams play tight games with the winner decided by one goal. I see this one falling into that scenario. Its either Znojmo scoring first and defending the lead or Banik scoring and defending even if Znojmo equalizes because an away point is an away point.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.95 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-1

Pick 105:Mattersburg- Innsbruck

I think its finally the time for Mattersburg's first win. They are really not as bad as the table suggests. They score quite a lot and even when they lose they lose by the odd goal only. Innsbruck is more of a draw team and will surely be happy with another one today. However, with odds nearing 3, Mattersburg is the clear choice here.

Pick: Mattersburg @2.9 (5Dimes)
Stake: 50

Result:1-1

Pick 104: Oxford- Aldershot

Brilliant odds on Oxford here. They are playing against poor Aldershot, who lost their last three matches and the odds are still above 2. I am taking this not so much because of Oxford's strength, but because of Aldershots weakness.

Pick: Oxford @2.15(Victor Chandler)
Stake: 50

Result: 1-1

Pick 103: Luton- Braintree

Luton were unlucky not to promote last year and sure as hell wont miss out on that opportunity this season. Though Braintree have started out good this season i dont see a way how they can get out of this with a point.

Pick: Luton(-1) AH @2.03 (Victor Chandler)
Stake: 50

Result: 3-1

Pick 102: Preston- Nots County

Nots County have played all of their matches this season over 2.5 goals. Preston are not that much of a 3+ team but they showed in the first round they can play big scoring matches when they played 4-2 against Colchester. Maybe better to take it in play (if it is an in-play option) at odds of 2, but is till like it at 1.83.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.83(Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-0

Pick 101:Ohrid- Vardar

Howleeee crap are these odds wrong or what? Ohrid is my hometown team, i've played in Ohrid while they were in the second league and i know most of the guys that play there currently. I can surely tell you they do not have as much chances on winning or taking a point in this one as the bookmakers give them. Lots of missing players and in general not a very good start to the season makes them a heavy underdog against a revamped Vardar. At these odds this is a steal.

Pick: Vardar @1.83 (Victor Chandler)
Stake: 100

Result: 0-2

Pick 100: Hartberg- BW Linz

Hartberg are the worst team in Austria 2 and it will be a miracle if they manage to string two wins together after winning against FC Lustenau last week. Odds on the away team seem more than generous and i am sure there's a lot of value on the away win.

Pick: BW Linz(+0) AH @2.25 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-1

Pick 99: First Vienna- Altach

Odds on First Vienna for this one are stunning if we take into consideration that Altach has lost the last two matches against Grodig and BW Linz. First Vienna is an inconsistent team with score of 3-3-3 and are undefeated in the last three matches.

Pick Vienna (+0.5) AH @2.00 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-1

Pick 98: Darlington- Alfreton

Darlington seem to be a tight team with goal difference 1-1 after three matches. Alfreton on the other hand is leaking goals left and right, having only one point out of three matches and a goal difference 2-9. At the given odds this is amazing value.
Anthony Wilson, Alfretons best scorer will be out for this one. Here's an interview with Alfertons coach after the last game.

Pick: Darlinton win @1.78
Stake: 100

Result: 1-1

Pick 97:Winterthur- Wohlen

Two underish teams meet in an overish league. That brings the odds at very high levels. For this one we only need to be right 43% of the time to be long term positive. I like those odds.

Pick: Under 2.5 @2.33 (pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: Another 90th minute loss 1-2

Pick 96: Orebro- Mjallby

Orebro, one of the hottest teams in Sweden is meeting in-form Mjallby. Odds on 3+ are over 2.00 so i cant let this slip by. Both teams score a lot of goals and receive more than they would like so 3+ seems fair at odds of 2.13.

Pick: Over 2.5 @2.13 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-2

Pick 95: Bohemians- Ceske Budejovice

After selling Nitriansky during the week to Slavia, Budejovice pretty much showed that they have no bigger ambitions than fighting for survival till the very end of the league. They play rather slowish football with Otepka in the middle dictating their play. This wont be easy to do in Prague because Bohemians are very young and very physical team who fight for every possession.

Pick: Bohemians(-1) @2.54(Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Reslut:2-1

Pick 94: Sparta Prague- Hradec Kralove

After messing it up in Romania Sparta will want to give their home fans something to cheer for. Anything else but a strong victory here will send them spiraling downward with the European season very probably coming to the end next week.

Pick: Sparta (-1.5) AH @2.04 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result:1-0

Pick 93: Sao Caetano- Vitoria

This match is a total 33%-33%-33% in my mind. Bookies seem to disagree slightly, thus giving us some value on any variation of bets on Vitoria. I am going to go with the Asian Handicap(+0) on Vitoria at 2.42 (a.k.a Draw-no-bet).

Pick: Vitoria+0 (AH) @2.42 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: Another 90th minute equalizer against us 2-2

Pick 92: Parana- Sporting Recife

An excellent opportunity for Parana to get back to winning ways against a team that lost 4 of the last 5. The odds are extremely inflated due to Parana's inconsistency of late, but to have odds above 2 on them is a pure gift.

Pick: Parana @2.03(188bet)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-2

Pick 91:Lazio- Rabotnicki

Main reason why i am playing this is because i think Rabotnicki can squeeze one goal in here. Lazio is far from being in competitive match-playing form and i think that should prove crucial. Rabotnicki are a good counter-attacking team.

Pick: Rabotnicki (+3.5)@1.32 (bet365)
Stake:75

Result:6-0 :)

Pick 90: Besiktas- Alania

Purely speculative bet based on the fact that Besiktas haven't played a competitive match in eternity and many regulars are missing.

Pick: Alania(+1) AH @2.67(bet365)
Stake: 50

Result:3-0

Pick 89: Steaua Bucharest- CSKA Sofia

Any time a Bulgarian and Romanian team play against each other i am inclined to think something fishy is going on. Hence, the odds on Steaua at 1.9 seem ludacris if we take into consideration only football elements. They are a much better team and should win this one easily. Not taking these odds would be silly. Even if the match turns out a total bust e.g. 1-0 half time, 2-3 end result, at least i'll be able to say "i knew it":).

Pick: Steaua @1.91 (eurobet)
Stake: 75

Result:2-0

Pick 88:Zestafoni- Club Brrugge

Zestafoni will play their match in Tbilisi, so home field advantage is just on paper for this one. Its true they are more used to playing on crappy pitches than Brugge, but if its at all playable Brugge will have the edge in this one. However, Brugge has been not the best backing option when it comes to away games. They lost 1-0 to Karabaq in Azerbaijan last round. Its true they were defending a 4-1 lead, but still you would expect more from Brugge. With one striker missing today i cant see them putting many goals past the Georgians.

Pick: Under 2.75 @1.8 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result:3-3!!

Pick 87: Vaslui- Sparta Prague

I am boarding this train as early as possible as the odds are going to go one way only: down! Sparta in top form and Vaslui missing more than half the team. At 2.50 this is AWESOME value. I know away matches in Europe are tough and the away team is happy with the draw, but this one smells like a wipeout. Time for Vaslui to learn about Kweuke's abilities as a scorer.

Pick: Sparta @2.5(Ladbrokes)
Stake: 100

Result:2-0

Pick 86: Milwall-Peterborough

Milwall had an unlucky draw at Reading, when reading scored both their goals in 86th and 89th minute. At home they won easy 2-0 against Nothingam. Peterborough won at home and lost their away match. I think this will be the case for most of the matches Peterborough will play this year. If they were to get to a safe mid-table position matches home are a must-win. Awwy matches are a bonus, and against an in-form Milwall chances of them bringing something home are slim.

Pick: Milwall @1.83(Paddypower)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-2

Pick 85: Maccabi Haifa- Genk

After squeezing through in the last round against Partizan i think the time has come for Genk to finish their journey in the Champions League. Not so much because of the strength of their opponent but because of the mess the suddenly find themselves in. The coach is leaving in a sudden move, their key playmaker (De Bruyne) is injured and one of the strikers (Ogunjimi) wont be able to play too.
Macabi also with troubles of their own, missing two key defenders and signing one just before the match, i think should find the strength to pull a few past Genk and hope not to concede more. Seeing how Genk miss their scoring core i think defending shouldnt be a problem.

Pick: Maccabi win @2.02 (Dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result:2-1

Pick 84: Crystal Palace- Coventry

This is from BBC.com:

"Midfielder Darren Ambrose is a major doubt for Palace after suffering a knee injury during Saturday's 2-0 win against Burnley.
Strikers Glenn Murray (ankle) and Steffen Iversen (hamstring) are sidelined along with defender Nathaniel Clyne (foot).
Coventry are without the suspended Carl Baker and a number of injured players.
Gary Deegan, Clive Platt, Richard Wood, Freddy Eastwaood, Ben Turner and Jordan Clarke are all unavailable."
The sides met three times last season. Each registered a home win in the league, while Coventry prevailed 2-1 in the third round of the FA Cup.
The Eagles have failed to score in only one of their last 15 league engagements with Coventry.
All seems to be going in favor of Palace, so why not give it a go at 2.25.

Pick: C.Palace @2.25 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Result:2-1

Pick 83: Inter Turku- Marienhamn

Marienhamn is currently 2nd worst team form-wise in the Finnish league. Inter Turku has won the last 3 home matches with 2 or 3 goals difference. The guys at pinnacle must have fallen on their heads when pricing this.

Pick: Inter Turku @1.58 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-0

Pick 82: Jablonec- Bohemians 1905

I was expecting much higher odds on Jablonec for this match. Bohemians are a tough side with two wins under their belt, one of which is against the current champions Plzen. I know its time for Jablonec to play a solid home game and win this one, but at these odds, taking the draw or the away win seem like much better alternatives. I think a couple Bohemians counter attacks could bring us a 7.38 winner.

Pick: Bohemians 1905 @7.38 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: 5-0

Pick 81: Djurgarden- Orebro

Cant believe the odds on Orebro. They have a three match winning streak and still they are offered at 3.44 against troubled Djurgarden. This one is solely because i believe they have much better chance than the 25% they are being given.

Pick: Orebro @3.44 (5dimes)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-2

Pick 80: Krasnodar- Krilya Sovetov

Either i am seeing this wrong or something is going on behind the curtain. The odds on Krasnodar are at amazing 2.75 on Eurobet and i'd be a fool to miss this opportunity. If form is an indicator than Krasnodar should win this easy.

Pick: Krasnodar win @2.75 (Eurobet)
Stake: 50

Result: 1-2

Pick 79: Kaposvar- Ujpest

Its hard to see anyone scoring in this match. Kaposvar have 4 points out of 4 matches with goal difference 4-7. Ujpest havent scored a goal yet, but they are also yet to lose by more than two. With 3 goals scored between the two in 8 matches i cant see this one going over.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.95(Dafabet, 12bet)
Stake: 50

Result: 2-2

Pick 78: Nordsjaelland- Koge

I am going to counter popular opinion on this one and i am going to try the Under 3 goals. Its true Koge both scores and receives a lot of goals, but Nordsjaelland plays very dry matches and i think today's match is a perfect candidate for another one of them. They have a goal difference of 3-6, worst attack in the league. It is true that they played some strong opposition in those matches, but even Koge managed to score against FC Copenhagen, so that shouldn't be an excuse. If Koge manage to squeeze in the first goal they will try to defend the lead and i think that they might as well succeed.

Pick: Under 3 @1.82 (dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-0

Pick 77: Caslav- Sokolov

Another match from the second Czech league and another home favorite to win it. The match in question is Zenit Caslav- Banik Sokolov. The home team won their first match of the season away at Karvina, which is a huge vistory for them, considering the fact that they have never won there before and had a goal difference 1-11. Banik, on the other hand lost the first match 0-2 against Sezimovo Usti. The basically didnt create any chances, though that might be due to the fact they had a red card since the 40th minute.
Last year both their matches were won by Caslav.

Pick: Zenit Caslav @2.12(youwin.com)
Stake: 50

Result:0-2

Pick 76: Wisla Krakow- Zaglebie

Awesome odds on Wisla for this one. They have won 14 out of the 18 times they played against Zaglebie at home. In the last 10 the score is 8-1-1. Its true that Wisla have started a bit slow , but still i wouldn't call two away draws the worst possible start. They are also alive in the Champions league and they beat Bulgarian Litex quite comfortably twice. I cant imagine Zaglebie being much stronger than Litex.

Pick: Wisla @1.83(12bet)
Stake: 100

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 40-35-1
Total P/L: +713.31
Total invested: 5575
ROI: 12.79%

Pick 75: Znojmo- Most

I've used Znojmo a couple of times here with different success. I think they are well worth trying today. They are playing at home against Most, a team who's drowning in debt and is in total disarray. They managed to beat Brno in the first round, but today's match is a different animal. They'd be happy with a point given that their attack will be depleted with the absences of Frnoch and Cervenka.

Pick: Znojmo win @2.02(bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 39-35-1
Total P/L: +630.31
Total invested: 5475
ROI: 11.51

Pick 74: Karlsruhe- Braunschweig

I hate these "public bets" but i have to take this one. With all the support KSC are getting in the blogs and forums something must go wrong. Karlsruhe seem like a huge favorite here, i was interested in this match even before i saw the odds and i was quite shocked after i did. 12bet have them at 2.37, which is 42% probability. I rate them at minimum 50% which makes this a long term good bet. Theory sounds perfect, lets see how we perform for real:).

Pick: Karlsruhe @2.37 (12bet)
Stake: 50

Result: Bet lost

Pick 73: Plzen- Teplice

No more bullshit, Plzen have to start playing good in the league. Todays match will be an open one because both teams like scoring more than they like defending. The odds on over 2.5 are too good to miss.

Pick: Over 2.5@ 2.09 (12bet)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-0, bet lost

Pick 72: M.Fish- E.Gulbis

Don't see why Fish is such a big favorite pre-game. They've met only once this year in LA and Gulbis won it in three sets. Last round Gulbis had a simple win against Lodra, where Lodra played only one set and retired so he should be the fresher of the two. At odds of 2.47 i cant miss this. Also some value offered on the handicap betting and the overs, the line of which moves somewhere along 22.5.

Pick: Gulbis @2.47(youwin)
Stake: 50

Result: Gulbis lost 2-1, great battle as expected
W-L-Void: 38-33-1
Overall P/L: +678.81
Total bets: 5275€
ROI 12.86%

Pick 71: Bystrc- Znojmo

These two teams know each other well from the Czech 3rd league, where they have played together many seasons. However, things have changed and Bystrc got relegated to the 4th league and Znojmo is in the second league and according to me will be one of the contenders to enter Gambrinus league. They have a lot of experienced players that have played first league and will surely want to prove they are worth the attention by playing good in the National cup. As a bonus Znojmo basically doesn't have a B team so the coach can not manipulate much with the starting lineup.
The winner of this match gets to meet Bohemians 1905, a team that fills stadiums both home and away as they have a strong support core. That will surely be a motivation for Znojmo to play focused and beat Bystrc.

Tip: Znojmo win @1.55 (Bet-at-home)
Stake: 100

Result: 1-1
W-L-Void: 38-32-1
P/L: -100, Total P/L: +728.81
Total bets: 5225€
ROI 13.94%

Lay the away favorite- Day 19

Two games today. Max liability is 47.63

1. Rotheram-Leicester lay@1.72 LOST -47.63
2. Plymouth- Milwall lay@1.86 LOST -47.63

Total: 0-2
P/L: -95.26

Pick 70: Teteks- Ohrid

Not many bookies offer odds on Macedonian league, but i think i found nice odds nevertheless. I can write a truly long preview about how they are equal, how they both suck and how they both don't have any money, but i won't. Instead of that i will just say one thing: In a league where the players are poorly paid and cant make ends meet its always good to bet on the underdog. You never know when will the keeper of the favorite say "I'm fed up with this" and let two suspicious goals in. I am not saying this match is fixed. All i am saying is that the players know that odds are being offered on their matches and sometimes desperate times ask for desperate measures.

Pick: Draw or Ohrid (Double chance)@ 2.9(bwin)
Stake: 100

Result: Bet won, full time 1-1
P/L: +190
W-L-Void:38-31-1
Overall P/L: +828.81, Total bets: 5125€, ROI 16.17%


NOTE FOR SELF: This is the post where i went from manual accounting to excel spreadsheet. Hence the discrepancy between previous post and this one.

Pick 69: Hansa- Bochum

2nd Bundesliga is a goalscoring league and any opportunity you can get at betting on goal line 2.25 or fewer you should take it.
These two teams played a 2-2 draw this year in the German cup and have played 3 of their 4 matches in this season with 2 or more goals. My opinion is that at least 2 goals will be scored to return half the money. Anything above is a bonus:).

Pick: Over 2.25 @1.87(Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake:75

Result:0-0
W-L-Void: 37-31-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +668.81, Total bets: 5100€, ROI 13.11%

Pick 68: Start-Haugesund

Lots of experts on Scandinavian leagues seem to be leaning on Start's side for this match. They are rock bottom for quite some while, but have showed some signs of life after the change of coach 3 matches ago. Its true they lost all of those matches, but those were against quality opposition and still there were signs of improvement.
On the other hand, their opposition today, Haugesund are a middle of the table team with no European ambitions so they might enter the match a bit relaxed.

Pick: Start +0(AH) @1.79 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result:LOST
W-L-Void: 37-30-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +743.81, Total bets: 5025€, ROI 14.80%

Pick 67: Bohemians 1905- Plzen

Odds on Bohemians for this one are just too good to let go. Plzen had a tough match against Rosenborg midweek and ended up with an emotional win. Usually after a tough match its tough to gather the composure and focus on the league. Fatigue will probably be a factor too. Bohemians on the other hand had a big win in the first round against Slavia and they played rather well. The simple truth is: Bohemians have much bigger chances than what the bookies are giving them (20% or so) and i'd be more than willing to take these odds.

Pick: Bohemians win @4.65 (5dimes)
Stake: 50

Result: 2-1
W-L-Void: 37-29-1
P/L: +182.5
Overall P/L: +793.81, Total bets: 4975€, ROI 15.95%

Pick 66: Sparta- Jablonec

Sparta is the biggest favorite for this year's championship in Czech Republic and they will be a huge favorite today against Jablonec. Jablonec is missing a lot of players: 6 to be exact (Krajčík, Haurdič, Novák, Eliáš, Jarolím and Vošahlík). Only problem might be the shitty weather here in Prague (i live 500m from Sparta's stadium) which might influence the number of goals scored. Either way Sparta is a huge favorite and odds of 1.67 are just way too generous to miss.

Pick: Sparta Prague @1.67 (Eurobet)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-1
W-L-Void: 36-29-1
P/L: +67
Overall P/L: +611.31, Total bets: 4925€, ROI 12.41%

Pick 65: Caen- Valenciennes

Its the first round of the french league and i am sure lots of matches will end up Under 2.5. However i see a glimpse of goalscoring form in Caen, who are a team familiar with scores such as 3-2, 2-1, 2-2 etc. They played 55% of their matches last season as under and 45% were overs. Valenciennes are a stingy team, but last years matchup between these two teams ended 2-2. I am sure its worth a punt on Over 2 at these odds.

Pick: Over 2 goals @1.88(Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 35-29-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +544.31, Total bets: 4825€, ROI 11.28%

Pick 64: Monfills- Tipsarevic

A friend of mine commented: Its time for Monfills to lose a set and maybe more. And he knows tennis:).

Tip: Tipsarevic +1.5 (AH) @1.63 (10bet)
Stake: 50

Result: Monfills 2-0
W-L-Void: 35-28-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +619.31, Total bets: 4750€, ROI 13.03%

Pick 63: Teplice- Hradec Kralove

I just dont know why the odds on Teplice are so high. Teplice is playing modern and attacking football and against a team that plays with 3 defenders that is usually productive.

Tip: Teplice @1.84 (188bet)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-3
W-L-Void: 35-27-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +669.31, Total bets: 4700€, ROI 14.24%

Pick 62: Hearts- Paks

Paks are a young team and there is something about young teams visiting Britain that forces them to play below their potential. Since the odds on Hearts win offer no value i would suggest the AH -0.75. I like those situations where the righter i am, the more money i win:).

Pick: Hearts(-0.75) @1.76 (Dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 4-1
W-L-Void: 35-26-1
P/L: +57
Overall P/L: +744.31, Total bets: 4625€, ROI 16.09%

Pick 61: Westerlo- Young Boys

I know matches between Belgian and Swiss teams can end up 7-6 no problem, but seeing how motivated each team will be and what will their priorities be i cant help myself not to put a bet on Under 3 goals. Westerlo are not capable of creating a lot of chances and Young Boys will be more than happy with what they have, so i wouldnt be surprised if this one ended up with a few scoring opportunities and even less goals.

Pick: Under 3 goals @1.72 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-2
W-L-Void: 34-26-1
P/L: +36
Overall P/L: +687.31, total bets: 4550€, ROI 15.10%

Pick 60: Rabotnicki- Anorthosis

It is seriously disturbing how stubborn people are. Bookies odds, as a reflection of people's expectations for the possible outcome of a match, should reflect, more or less, the real chances of the outcome happening. Due to some skewed opinions, everybody seems to be on the Anorthosis train yet again, and yet again that will lead to a disaster. Odds of 1.6 surely don't represent the real chances the away team has of winning in Macedonia. Subsequently the Over/Under odds went sky high and all i am wondering is: Who is going to score those 2.5 or more goals?? Is it the toothless team that couldn't score them at home? I dont think so.

Pick: Under 2.5 @2.01 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 75

Result: Lost
W-L-Void: 33-26-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +651.31, total bets: 4500€, ROI 14.47%

Pick 59: Legia- Gaziantepe

Legia will try and repeat the performance from the first match, where they were waiting for a mistake and converted one of the two chances they had the whole match. Entering this game with that attitude might result in a very dry match because if they score first Gaziantepe has no chance of coming back. If the concede first Gaziantepe will play a bit more cautiously because they have overtime in their pockets with 0-1. Either way i am not expecting a goalfest here.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.75 (NordicBet)
Steake: 75

Result: 0-0
W-L-Void: 33-25-1
P/L: +56.25
Overall P/L: +726.31, total bets: 4425€, ROI 16.41%

Pick 58: Hacken- Nacional

Ridiculous odds on the under 2.5 force me to do a writeup for this match too. Nacional with a certain place in the next round surely wont go to Sweden to attack. This being said, their best scorer Luis Alberto is suspended. Hacken is a tough team at home and surely will try to give the home fans at least something to cheer for. I see Hacken as slight favorites but not many goals can be scored when one teams mission is just to get the match over with.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.94 (Dafabet)
Stake: 50

Result: 2-1
W-L-Void: 32-25-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +670.06, total bets: 4350€, ROI 15.40%

Pick 57: Gaz Metan- Mainz

I chose Gaz Metan in the first match and now its time for things to fall into their natural place. After setting the odds at ridiculous 1.15 in the first leg and the subsequent draw 1-1, the bookies are at it again, this time overvaluing the draw the Romanians managed in the away match. When push comes to shove German teams will play intensive till the very last minute and they will get the result they need. Since the result Mainz need is an away win or a high scoring draw i will give the away win a shot. At odds above 1.7 its well worth it.

Pick: Mainz @1.73 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 75

Result: 1-1
W-L-Void: 32-24-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +720.06, total bets: 4300€, ROI 16.74%

Pick 56: Brondby- Ried

Make no mistake here, Ried are coming to defend. Stats say Brondby was the more offensive team in the first match and there is no doubt in my mind that wont happen again today. 2-0 however is a huge lead and it will surely give Ried the confidence to focus even after a conceded goal early on. The start of the game will be crucial. If they manage to contain Brondby in the first half an hour then we are in with a great chance.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.93 (5dimes)
Stake: 50

Result: 4-2
W-L-Void: 32-23-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +795.06, total bets: 4225€, ROI 18.81%

Pick 55: Stromsgodset- Atletico Madrid

Stromsgodset is the best home team in the Norwegian league with a score of 8-1-1. They play on artificial grass, which might also complicate things for Atletico. Atletico is going to Norway with a depleted team, 4 or 5 injuries and without Aguero and De Gea who were sold during the summer. Spanish league doesn't begin in the next three weeks, so Atletico might be a bit rusty, which they actually showed in the first match. These facts combined with the fact that Atletico will be happy with the draw here makes Stromsgodset+1 (AH) an excellent opportunity. I just cant see Atletico winning this by 2.

Pick: Stromsgodset +1 @2.00 (Dafabet)
Stake: 100

Result: 0-2. For crying out loud, can i team i pick NOT concede in the 90th?
W-L-Void: 32-22-1
P/L: -100
Overall P/L: +845.06, total bets: 4175€, ROI 20.24%

Pick 54: Malmo- Glasgow Rangers

Its the end station for the Rangers. Depending on the outcome of this match the whole season might shape up one way or another before it even begins. If they win, they get closer to Champions league money, they are able to sign big names and play big matches. If they lose, they go back to the mediocrity of the Scottish Premier League and watch the Champions league on TV wondering where they went wrong. They showed they have the ability to create chances and score in the first match and it is all up to them to resolve the outcome of this tie. Malmo is struggling in the average Swedish league and surely cant be a match for a 100% focused Glasgow Rangers. Whether that Glasgow Rangers shows up remains to be seen.

Pick: Glasgow -0.25 (AH) @2.12 (Victor Chandler)
Stake: 100

Result: 1-1, half bet returned, half is lost
W-L-Void: 32-21-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +945.06, total bets: 4075€, ROI 23.19%

Pick 53: Rubin Kazan- Dynamo Kiev

All Dynamo can hope for here is to attack like there is no tomorrow and hope they score early. This behavior usually leads to and early goal. The goal line is set at 2 and by the looks of it there is no way Dynamo will go down without a good fight, so my suggestion is to try the Over 2. If the first goal is scored by Dynamo, there is another one coming for sure because the game will open up even more. 2 goals return our bet so its well worth the try

Pick: Over 2 goals @1.84 (Dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 2-1, very tight, the weels fell off in the 89th and 90th minute
W-L-Void: 32-20-1
P/L: +63
Overall P/L: +995.06, total bets: 3975€, ROI 25.03%

Pick 52: Slovan Bratislava- APOEL

Slovan Bratislava seem like a very tough opponent to play against. I read a pre-match interview with their coach Jarolim who said that they are ready and that they will play even tougher than in the first match. This being said, i don't expect many goals here (if any), but there's no value in taking the under 2.5. I see slight value, however, in the draw-no-bet market on Slovan because they are offered at 2.07. I rate their chances at about 55% so i suggest a small bet here.

Tip: Slovan+0 (AH) @2.07 (Victor Chandler)
Stake: 50

Result: 0-2
W-L-Void: 31-20-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +932.06, total bets: 3900€, ROI 23.89%

Pick 51: St.Polten- Altach

St.Polten is slowly getting into stride and has won the last two away games. Altach is also showing that they are a capable team, but they have a problem in their scoring lines. They cant seem to score a lot (besides the match against Hartberg, which, lets face it, isn't an achievement) and thsi should show again. Facing a capable opponent both teams seem to play more cautiously, which often results in a snoozefest. The bookies helped a lot here, setting the goal line at 2.75 instead of the standard 2.5. At odds of 2.03 i would take the under all day long.

Pick: Under 2.75 @2.03 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result: 1-2, half bet lost, half bet returned
W-L-Void: 31-19-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +982.06, total bets: 3850€, ROI 25.50%

Pick 50: FC Lustenau- BW Linz

FC Lustenau are one of the worst teams in Austrian 2 league. BW Linz will be a middle of the pack team that will beat worse teams and lose to better teams. I am going for the away win (draw no bet) purely because of the odds. Bookies are offering 2.00 and i think that is too good to miss. Realistically this match smells like a draw the most, but if anyone wins it it will be BW. They showed some spirit agains WAC in their last away match, losing 3-2with the winning goal in the last 15 minutes. Same scenario repeated in their last home match where they lost 1-2 to St. Polten, with the winning goal comming in the final quarter of the match.

Pick: BW Linz (DNB) @2.00 (188bet)
Stake: 50

Result: 1-0
W-L-Void: 31-18-1
P/L: -50
Overall P/L: +1032.06, total bets: 3750€, ROI 27.52%

Pick 49: Lask Linz- Hartberg

Lask hasnt played a match over 2.5 goals so far this season. On the other hand Hartberg, rock bottom in the league, has played 1 under and 4 overs. Preseason favorites LASK have been struggling to score and a depleted Hartberg (two players suspended) might be just what they need to get things going.

Pick: LASK -1.5 @1.93 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result: 4-0
W-L-Void: 31-17-1
P/L: +93
Overall P/L: +1082.06, total bets: 3700€, ROI 29.24%

Pick 48: Bate Borisov- Ekranas

I was expecting the odds to be much more even in this match. According to the bookies Bate Borisov is a huge favorite and they give them probability of over 80% to win. I see this as a huge underestimation of the strength of Ekranas. They haven't lost a single match in 17 rounds in the domestic championship and they are surely on their way to another title. The same can be said for Bate, but still, i don't see such a gap between Belorussian and Lithuanian leagues for the odds on Bate to be justified.
Also, Bate will start this match attacking and any opportunity for a fast break could be deadly. That is why i decided to take the handicap +1.75 on the Lithuanians. If Ekranas score for 0-1 i don't see how Bate can turn the match around.

Tip: Ekranas +1.75(AH) @1.86 (Ladbrokes)
Stake: 75

Result: 3-1, half bet lost, half bet returned
W-L-Void: 30-17-1
P/L: -37.5
Overall P/L: +989.06, total bets: 3600€, ROI 27.47%

Pick 47: Jablonec- Mlada Boleslav

Both teams have insurmountable disadvantage in their Europa league ties, so i believe they will focus most of their attention to the league beginning. Jablonec coach Komnacky emphasized that the winner of this match will be the team that manages to put their Europa League match behind them. Mlada Boleslav has a lot of problems with injuries. 5 players are missing among which the absence of Neuwirth will most certainly be felt a lot. They will alsso miss Johana, Bulut, Scuk and Fabian. Jablonec doesnt have any problems with injured players besides Jarolim who is uncertain for this match after a mild injury against AZ.
I am leaning on Jablonec side here due to the missing players and the fact that Jablonec had one more round in the Europa league against Albanian Fljamurtari (which they comfortably won). 2 more competitive matches in the legs could sure mean a lot for the players at the beginning of a season.

Tip: Jablonec @2.02 (Dafabet)
Stake: 75

Result: 0-0. Holy f-in crap both teams sucked balls. No wonder most matches in Czech league end under 2.5. Bunch of retarded 18 years olds, physically ready, mentally not so much... If someone managed to hit the goal his team would have won. Atrocious match.
W-L-Void: 30-16-1
P/L: -75
Overall P/L: +1026.56, total bets: 3525€, ROI 29.12%

Pick 46: Pere Riba- Victor Hanescu

Hanescu is playing on his favorite surface in Kitzbuhel and will surely be a tough nut to crack the whole tournament. Main thing that lead me to believe he is a good bet was his recent win against Monfills in the first round of the tournament in Stuttgart and his great run in the Nice tournament where he reached the final and beat some pretty good players along the way. Both tournaments were played on clay. Riba on the other hand doesnt have any big wins recently, mostly beating players ranked 100+ and then losing to the first better player. Last "big" win was against Dodig back in the first round of the French open. I say "big" because Dodig's favorite surface by far isn't the clay.
Market seems to be supporting my oppinion as the odds went from 1.79 to 1.57

Pick: Hanescu to win @1.57 (Pinnaclesports.com)
Stake: 100

Result: 2-0 Bet lost
W-L-Void: 30-15-1
P/L: -100
Overall P/L: +1101.56, total bets: 3450€, ROI 31,92%