Pick 191: NY Rangers- San Jose Sharks

Its Sharks' last match of a 6 game long road trip. Result so far: flawless 5-0-0! They have totally forgotten about the 1-3-0 start and swept all comers aside. And there were some tough teams among those: Detroit, Boston, Nashville, New jersey and the Islanders were all crushed and there's only one more before they go back home. The shaky Rangers.
Rangers started the hectic season in Europe, then went to the west coast, then Canada before returning back home. The grueling schedule helped deplete Rangers defense and the record shows that: 3-3-3. Mark Staal is nearing his comeback, but he's not ready yet. Today's practice was without Del Zoto (another defender) and Anisimov and Rupp is also having knee problems. So most of the team is banged up and the Rangers are doing all in their power to contain the score and not to lose ground before the injured players come back. There's one callup from AHL for today's match: Andre Deveaux, who will fill the 4th line. Besides Gaborik and Richards, who have 8pts each, there's no scoring help from the others and the Rangers look pathetic at times. This could especially be seen in the SO loss to Otawa two days ago.

Pick: San Jose (in 60 min)@ 2.3(expect)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 190: Fenerbahce- Kardemir Karabuk

Fenerbahce is the clear favorite here and i think the good prices for Fenerbahce win and all different handicaps are already gone. Betting on Fenerbahce at 1.3 or the 1.5AH at 1.8 is way too risky.
I do however see an opportunity in the goals market, where over 2.5 is offered at 1.7. I see this as a generous offer especially considering the fact that we have a huge home favorite who wont be satisfied by just scoring one goal. Fenerbahce are coming of a huge 2-2 draw against Besiktas and a disappointing home draw against Samsun, so i think its finally time for a show at their own field.
Karabuk aren't having the best start. They are currently 15th with 2-2-4 score and 9-11 goal difference. They are showing signs of improvement lately, drawing against Samsun 0-0 and defeating Buyuksehir 2-0. Even in the three losses before these two matches they managed to score a goal in each encounter (2-1 Manisa, 2-1 Ordu, 3-1 Trabzon). If they manage to squeeze one past Fener too i am confident this bet will be a winner because i don't see any other outcome than Fenerbahce win in this one.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.7 (expect)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 189: Columbus- Anaheim

Backup goalies seem to be getting most of the minutes against the Columbus Blue Jackets this season. Tonight will be no exception when Dan Ellis will take the ice for Anaheim, the 4th consecutive team that sends their 2nd goalie on the ice against the Jackets. Columbus doesn't seem to benefit from the sub-par goaltending though. They are bottom of the league with 1-9-1 score and special teams that make you sad even when you look at them.
However some glimpse of improvement has been shown over the last few matches. Last home match they defeated the Detroit Red Wings quite convincingly 4-1. Then they went on to fire 43 shots against Buffalo, the most this season, in a loss 4-2. After that followed yet another defeat away against Chicago, champions from two seasons ago, where they managed to fire 27 shots. A statistic comparing this year's forward performance to the average career stats shows a decrease in most categories in every forward's stats with a few exceptions here and there (and even those are +0.01 from the average most of the time). There's no way every single forward on the Columbus roster will end up the season worse than the last year. This in terms means that sooner or later most of the players will start nearing towards this average of theirs and start putting points on the board.
Tonight's opponent might be a good starting point. The ducks are in the middle of a grueling 7 game road trip, having played 3 already (1-1-1 score) so far and losing the most recent one, yesterday against Nashville 3-0 in one of the poorest performances so far.
These facts combined with the tempting odds on Columbus seem to make this bet a good proposition.

Pick: Columbus (in 60min) @2.79 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 188: Montreal- Boston

This is the second of a back-to-back matchup between these two teams. I saw the first one and i must say both teams are much better than their current record is. The first match was one by the Habs 2-1, but Boston could have taken that either and it would have been fair too. The shot totals were 35-30 in favor of the Canadiens, but the Habs had 21 blocked shots, which brings the total Boston shots amount to 51!! In a situation like that its a miracle how the total remained at three when it could have easily been 5, 6 or more.
Not really sure who will win this one as it will depend much on momentum and small things, but i am sure if they play anything similar to the first match we're in for a great game with a lot of chances to score on both sides.
Since Canbet are obviously asleep on this one, offering 1.9 on the over 5 goals (Full time incl OT and SO) i will have to take it.

Pick: Over 5(incl OT and SO) @1.9 (Canbet)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 187: Colorado- Edmonton

Another streak is coming to an end tonight. Edmonton has a 3 game winning streak on home ice against the Rangers, Canucks and Capitals. Not many teams will be able to say they've beaten these three teams at home this season. The Oilers did it in one week. The quality of the opposition graded with each game and it peaked yesterday when they had to entertain the Washington Capitals who came with a 7-0-0 score. The Oilers took the test and passed it with flying colors. But when all is said and done its just another W in the win column. They still had to board a plane, fly to Colorado, go out on a practice and will have to face today's opponent who's last game was Wednesday. The young core of Edmonton just isn't used to this tempo. Oh yeah, the altitude in Colorado also doesn't help.
Colorado comes of a disappointing defeat against Calgary and i am sure the coach had a few harsh words for the effort. Today they return to their home arena where they started 0-2 and they will give their best to repay what they owe the home fans: a home win.
The media are hyping up the matchup of the two youngest stars the teams have at the moment: Nugent-Hopkins and Landeskog.I am not so excited about it though. Not because they arent great players, but the circumstances under which Edmonton arives to play todays match might prevent Nugent from performing at his peak.

Pick: Colorado(in 60mins.) @2.10 (Expect)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 186: Detroit- San Jose

We had a similar situation last night in the Nashville- Tampa game. A team in a slump (if you can call 2 loses in a row a slump) plays host to a hot team winning three in a row against tough opponents. Lets hope it will provide the same results as it did yesterday.
The Red Wings after starting 5-0-0 lost two away games and all journalists and blogs are already in panic mode. I would say its too early to panic, but the pounding at the hands of Washington 7-1 and Columbus (of all the teams in the world) surely raises a few concerns. Even Mike Babcock, Detroit's coach seems to think so. He sent a message by scheduling a practice yesterday, a day in which the team usually rests. I am sure the guys got the message and they will enter today's match with a whole new approach.
On the opposite sides stand the San Jose Sharks, a team that has to have mixed feelings about the start of the season. They started off horribly, going 1-3-0 and then went on their longest road trip for the whole season (7 games). The start brought a positive shift of energy and they won the first three, beating some good teams (Boston, Nashville and New Jersey). However, I don't really believe they have what it takes to win 7 of 7. Not yet anyways. I've noticed some signs of decline in the penultimate match against the Bruins when they allowed 39 shots on goal and blocked 21!!! This means most of the game, even though they won it, was in their thirds. And the Sharks aren't used to that type of matches. The game against Nashvile was also tighter than the final score tells us. The 1-1 was broken 5 minutes before the end of regulation and the third was an empty netter.
On top of all of this you can add the frenetic crowd at the Joe Lewis Arena and expect a great match in which the Red Wings should be too good for the Sharks.

Pick: Detroit (incl OT and SO) @1.82 (5dimes)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 185: Pardubice- Karlovy Vary

Pardubice haven't beaten Karlovy Vary on their home ice three years. Karlovy Vary had a rough start to the season but slowly are getting into stride, having won the last two matches 6-2 against Slavia and Litvinov on home ice. The question remains if they will transfer that form on the oponent's ice, but given the odds that is a risk i am willing to take. Pardubice seem to be switching wins and loses in a very predictable pattern. Their lats 5 matches went W L W L W. Three of them went to OT.

Pick: Karlovy Vary (in 60 mins.) @4.6(bwin)
Stake: 25

Result: LOST
Note: from 0-3 it went to 3-3 in the last third

Pick 184: Liberec- Sparta

I am playing the numbers game here:
-3 of the last 5 matches between these two teams, including this season's first matchup, went to OT
-3 of the last 5 home matches for Liberec, including 2 of the last 2 went to overtime
-3 of the last 5 matches Sparta played went into OT
-The last 3 away matches Sparta played went into OT
-Odds on the regulation draw can be found at 4.2 and above (i even found 4.33). This represents 23.8% chances, meaning if we took this every time and 1 out of 4 ended in a regulation draw we're positive.
-See where i am going with this one?:)

Why i think this might actually come true:
Its true Sparta hasn't won here since 2007, but history is not a factor to lean on much in Czech hockey since the changes the teams go through from season to season are just to huge for historical stats to matter. Liberec will be handicapped entering this match. They will miss Spacek (forward, 13 matches so far, 3G,2A), Klimenta (forward, 13 matches, 5G,3A, 3rd team scorer) who they've sent on a loan to Trinec for some reason beyond my comprehension, Moravec (5G, 0G, 0A), Visek (5G, 0G, 0A) and Kudrna (12Gm, 1Gl, 3Ass) who is uncertain. In Sparta's team only one missing is Krstev (3 games this season).
Liberec best player at the moment is 40yrs old Petr Nedved with 21 pts (10+11). The rest are a landslide behind in scoring. Take him out and you're gold. With the addition of Koci to the team that might come easier than you think. Sparta's scoring is more leveled with Ton, Tenkrat and Bliznak with 14, 12 and 10 pts.
In conclusion i am expecting a close game, edging slightly towards Sparta win, but the regulation draw seems like the best bet here.

Pick: Draw (60mins.) @4.33 (Bodog)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 183: Dallas- Los Angeles

Of all the games tonight this one is probably the most destined to end up in a draw in regulation (maybe along with the Wild- Ducks one). Two of the tightest teams and two of the best goalies so far meet today in a rematch just 4 days after their first, which ended in a 1-0 win for the Kings in LA. The Kings won that match, but were far from the dominating force. In fact Dallas was the better team for most of the match, which was reflected on the shot clock 28 shots for Dallas, 24 for LA.
By simply adding the totals of shots they average per match (around 54 shots total) and factoring the effect the goalies will have (Quick 97.2 save% and 0.81 GAA- simply ridiculous and Lehtonen's 95.5 Save%+ 1.54 GAA) we can conclude this match wont be a wild goal-scoring affair. However, what we can statistically add up bookies can do it ten times better, so there is no real value in going under 5.5 goals.
Instead i am going to pick a side and this time i think Dallas will finally be able to break the curse and score on Quick. For a team that is 3-0 at home, 2.05 i think is way too much of a luxury for us to miss.

Pick: Dallas (incl OT and SO)@ 2.05 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 182: Nashville- Tampa Bay

Nashville have started their season with three consecutive home losses. Tampa are coming of a three game winning streak, two of which against the Buffalo Sabres.With the crowd in Nashville getting anxious and with the returns of Bullion, Fisher and possibly even Erat i think this is a good opportunity for the Preds to take this one away from the Bolts.
On paper these teams play a totally different style of hockey. Tampa's games usually end up goal-fests (3.22 Gf/3.11 Ga), while Nashville plays much tighter games (2.00 Goals for/2.75 Goals against). 5 on 5 Nashville is worse, ratio 0.69 GF/GA, while Tampa has a 1.15 index. However on the PP and the PK Nashville is among the top 1/3 in the league with a PP of 17.2% (5/29) and Pk of 86.8 (5/38). Tampa's special teams are not so hot right now. PP is at 13.3% (4/30) and PK is at 84.1% (7/44).
Basically it will all come down to Preds goalie Rinne performance since we will see a lot of shots being fired at him. All of Preds points so far this year can be credited to his efforts. If he gets couple of good saves early and Preds score a goal first they have a real chance of winning this one.

Pick: Nashville (incl OT and SO) @1.95 (Betonline)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 181: Boston- Montreal

I am one of the firm believers the Canadiens are better than their record so far suggests. They came back on winning track yesterday, when they thrashed Philadelphia 5-1 and will try to surprise Boston on their own ice today. Back to back matches can sure be tough for the teams, but sometimes the momentum from such a win like yesterday can also carry over and before fatigue kicks in you've won the next match too.
There is a special touch of rivalry here. Both teams are members of the original 6, but more importantly this:
"Thursday also marks Pacioretty’s first meeting with Boston since he sustained a concussion and cracked vertebra on a hit by Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara(notes) during a 4-1 Canadiens victory March 8, ending his 2010-11 season."- Source Yahoo! Sports.
I expect a lot of settling of unsettled debts and an electric atmosphere in which special teams might decide the match winner.
Special teams for both teams haven't been up to the task. Bostons PP is at 12.9%(4/31) and their penalty kill is at 87.9% (4/33). Montreal's stats are similar 10.8% (4/37) PP, 82% PK (7/39). 5 on 5 play balances the small edge Boston might have. They have 0.93 golas for/goals against ratio and Montreal has 1.2 index.
Similarities don't end there. Both teams out-shoot their opponents day in and day out, Boston 34.5-29.4 and Montreal 33.2-26.1 but still both concede more than they score on average (Boston 2.25 GF/G -2.38 GA/G, Montreal 2.56-2.89)
All in all i expect a tight match where details will decide the winner. In these cases i always go for the big odds.

Pick: Montreal(in 60 mins.) @3.79 (Bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 180: Chicago- Anaheim

Chicago faces Anaheim in a match they should easily win. Anaheim is coming of two straight defeats at home against Phoenix and Dallas and Chicago is coming of a OT loss to the Avs.
Statistically Chicago dominates all relevant aspects to today's match. They are out-shooting their opponents 33.3-27.6. Anaheim is out-shot 27.9-28.3. Goals for and goal against averages are also in Chicago's favor. Chicago scores 3.43 (2nd in the league) and concedes 2.29. Anaheim score 2.14 and receive 2.43. Anaheim's road penalty kill has received 3 goals on 10 kills, while Chicago have 3 goals on 16 power-play attempts on home ice.
This match marks the first of Ducks' 7 away matches to follow and a lot of questions regarding the strength and depth of this team will be answered. Against Chicago though they will be outmatched in every position and i expect a clear Chicago victory.

Pick: Chicago @2.00 (Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 179: Winnipeg- NY Rangers

I might regret saying this at some point this season but Winnipeg, after the opening shock at the beginning of the season, picked themselves up and are not a bad hockey team. The last 5 matches they've won the two home games, lost in OT one away match against Toronto and lost two away games. The only lackluster was the loss against Ottawa 4-1 (Thu. 20th). All of the other matches they played with a lot of pride and effort and results followed.
Fun fact nr.1: Where does Winnipeg's home penalty kill rank in the league? 5th!! They have a 92.9% PK in front of the hockey starved fans in Winnipeg allowing 1 goal on 14 penalty kills.
Fun fact nr. 2: How many goals have the Rangers scored on powerplay? 1!! 1 goal out of 23 tries, which brings them to a total of 4.4%.
Fun fact nr.3: How many home games have the Rangers played this season? 0!! That's right, the Rangers haven't even seen the home ice this season and its starting to take a toll on them. In fact, in expecting the home ice debut they are underestimating today's opponent and placing their backup goalie Biron instead of Lundquist, by far the best player on the team.
Fun fact nr.4: How many of the last 10 games have the Rangers won? 1!! The Jets (formerly Thrashers) are 8-1-1 against the Rangers and 3-0-1 in last years matchup. Their goalie Pavelec is 2-0-1 with 1.3 GAA against the Rangers.
All this fun+ the fact that Rangers are getting outshout night in and night out (23.2 to 32.3) give me some confidence the Jets might go for 3 in a row at home tonight.

Pick: Jets (reg time) @2.75 (bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 178: Montreal- Florida

Both teams made some roster changes before the matchup. Florida sent David Boots to Vancouver in exchange for Marco Sturm and Mikael Samuelsson. Montreal traded for Center Nokelainen from Phoenix in exchange for Trotter from the AHL farm Hamilton and a 7th round pick. Given that Samuelsson is a 100% no show today and Sturm is a probable i would say the impact on Montreal's team is more immediate. The season debuts of Nokelainen, Blunded (recall from Hamilton) and goalie Budaj will surely ignite a few sparks in Montreal as they try to avoid their 6th straight defeat. Along with them defense veteran Jaroslav Spacek is also making a return to the Habs squad.
On goal there is an unlikely matchup of the second goalies. Budaj makes his seasonal debut for Montreal, giving Price a much needed rest after the 3.13 GAA start (87.8 Save %). On the other side Markstrom is likely to start instead of starter Theodore who had to go out in Panthers win against the Islanders due to a lower body injury). That will mark Markstroms 4th match in his NHL career.
5 on 5 florida is just terrible, getting outscored by a 0.64 ratio. montreal is better, posting a 1.08 ratio.
Montreal's powerplay has been their Achilles heel so far, having scored only twice on 25 tries. Florida is one of the best teams in the league in PP execution at 8/28.
If the shot clock is a factor that represents team's activity then Montreal should be the more active one. They have a 32.9-26 sog/sa differential, which is much better than Florida's 29.9-31.9.
Florida had a long trip from their home arena to Montreal, while Montreal remained at home after their heartbreaking loss to Toronto Saturday, when they lead 3-1 and lost 5-4.

Pick: Montreal (in 60 mins.) @2.29 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 177: Philadelphia- Toronto

Philadelphia are coming of a tough defeat at home against the Blues. Toronto's last game was an emotional win against the Canadiens in Montreal.
Flyers goalie Bryzgalov is 4-0-0 with 1.55 GAA against Toronto lifetime. On goal for the Leafs will be Jonas Gustavsson who took over the no.1 spot in the absence of Reimer who went out in the match against Canadiens after a collision with Brian Gionta. He is still getting used to having minutes in the big league and that is reflected in his stats. He's received 9 goals on only 61 shots faced, giving him a terrible 85.2 save percentage.
5 on 5 play both teams are better than their oppositions so far, Philadelphia posting a 1.08 and Toronto has a 1.15 Goals for/goals against ratio.
Powerplay-wise Philadelphia is much better, both in drawing penalties and scoring in the PP opportunities. They are 8/32 (25%) and the Leafs are 4/29 (13.8%).
Penalty kill isn't the strongest suit of both teams, but Philadelphia has the edge here too. They conceded on 6 of 36(83%) kills and Toronto 7 of 24 times(74%).
Philadelphia are a more active team in the shots on goal department, outshooting opponents 32.4-26.4. Toronto is regularly outshot with averages 26.4-31.4. This translates into 3.29-2.71 Goals for/goals against per game for Phila and 3.29-3.29 ratio for Toronto.
Toronto won the last meeting in Philadelphia 3-2 (March 3), but was outscored 26-11 in losing the previous five games there.

Pick: Philadelphia (in 60 mins) @1.91 (BetOnline)
Stake: 100

Result:WON

Pick 176: Vancouver-Minnesota

Vancouver are coming of a 5-1 win against Nashville. The Wild won at Edmonton 2-1 in OT in an emotional win when they managed to level the scores at 0.5 seconds till the end of the match.
On paper this seems like an easy win for the Canucks especially in their home arena considering their last match ended in a one sided 5-0 win for them. Last year the season series went 4-2-0 in favor of Vancouver.
A deeper look into the stats shows a not so big difference in the teams performances so far. 5 on 5 play they are both at around 1.00 goals scored/received ratio. Power play is the stat in which the Canucks have the edge. They've managed to score 7 of 39 attempts. Minnesota on the other hand doesn't have killer stats in he PK area and have 81.8% success rate, but another stat amazed me. Minnesota is first in second in the league in shots blocked and best in the hits department. This translates into a tough defense where nothing comes easy, which can be seen in the goals against, respectful 2.29 per match. If they hang in long enough they can win just about every match. Just like they did in Edmonton.
Today's task might be even easier with the absence of Canucks starting goalie Luongo. For a small stake i would recommend a bet on a surprise here.

Pick: Minnesota @2.9 (incl OT and SO)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 175: New Jersey- San Jose

Today marks the start of a 6 game road trip for the Sharks in which they are supposed to prove the critics that the 1-3-0 start is a fluke. New Jersey have lost their legend Brodeur for 7-10 days and Hedberg gets the nod between the pipes today. God forbid if it came to a situation where he has to go out, on goal goes Kinkaid and everyone in New Jersey is in for a long night. Even this way they better prepare for a lot of action in front of NJ goal. San Jose is the best team in the league in the shots for/shots against department. The second on this list is Detroit. They are 4-0-0 so far and San Jose are 1-3-0. Amazing, right? Provided they limit their dumb mistakes from the last three, which they lost in regulation i am sure San Jose is a clear favorite. The return of Havlat on the second line for today's match will provide a much needed boost too. San Jose's powerplay is also amongst the best in the league (27%). With a good penalty kill tonight's game should be 2 points in the Sharks bag. If the Devils find a way and keep them under 30 shots i can see a chance for them winning it. Either way i see no OT in this one and the clear favs are San Jose.

Pick: San Jose @2.3 (Unibet)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 174: Crvena Zvezda-Cedevita

Crvena zvezda- Cedevita is a nice intro into this weeks basketball in the improving Adriatic league. I am edging towards Crvena zvezda win today. Zvezda are welcoming back the new/old coach Svetislav Pesic and this together with the merger with FMP gives them a lot of competition on every position and a big roster to choose from.
The main advantages for Zvezda on the court today will be the American Adam Morison from LA Lakers, Petar Popovic a center with huge European experience and young Nedovic who wass the only bright spot for Zvezda last year. In charge of neutralizing Draper will be Covic. Draper after the brilliant last season is in much weaker form which was most evident in the Eurobasket.
In conclusion: The big roster and the array of young players adequate for Pesic's style of play will be a huge factor for Zvezda's play this season. The strong defense and the quick transition of play should give Morison a chance to excel and justify the star status.
In addition i have to add that Zvezda's fans Delije are slowly beginning to come back to the matches and the rainy Friday afternoon should help bring a higher attendance in Pionir.
I expect an open match with a lot of open shots, lots of points and attractive points.

Pick: Zvezda @2.07 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 173: Karlovy Vary- Litvinov

The worst home team in Extraliga meets the worst away team today.
Karlovy Vary are 1-0-1-4 with 13-23 goal difference at home and Litvinov are also 1-0-1-4 with 9-18 goal difference, having lost 4 of the last 5. Two of those loses came to below average teams like Kladno and Mlada Boleslav.
The only thing distinguishing the two teams today might be the good vibe in Vary's squad caused by the arrival of Salficky, Mikeska, Gawryletz and McGregor. After the troubles they had on goal with Mensator being more off than on the ice, they conveniently filled the goalie position with Dusan Salficky, a goalie with immense experience. He has around 92% saves percentage in the first few matches with the team. Michal Mikeska is today's joker in the pocket of Karlovy Vary. He arrived on a loan from Ceske Budejovice and his experience should bring some additional stability to the team. He has 36 matches for the National team. Also today should mark the debut of Canadian defender Gawryletz. McGregor will have to wait for his first appearance because he is still healing an injury.
The first match between these two (played in Litvinov) ended in a Litvinov win after shootout. Vary lead 1-0, Litvinov turned it to 3-1 in their favor but Vary showed some spirit and managed to draw to 3-3.

Pick: Karlovy Vary @2.26 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 172: Toronto Maple Leafs-Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are quite expected one of the worst teams at the start of the season. Their powerplay is atrocious, they are 0/17 so far. Penalty kill is similarly terrible, killing only 80 percent of opponents powerplays. Even in 5 on 5 play they are losing the battles, having a 0.64 ratio of goals scored to goals conceded. All in all the Jets are in for a long season and at best they can hope for a point here and there. Pavelec, their best asset at the moment will start the game on goal. He started with 3.7 GAA and 10 goals received in 3 played matches. The only win the Jets managed to squeeze out came two days ago against the Penguins 2-1 in a very even match.
Maple leafs lost the first match this season against the Avs in OT two days ago. At moments i thought the Leafs will be the clean winners of that one and at moment i thought they will lose by 5. Leafs are one of the best teams in 5/5 play, scoring twice as much as the opposing teams. Today might mark the debut of Gustaffson on goal for Toronto who will surely be motivated to impress if he is to take the number 1 spot.

Pick: Toronto(in 60 min)@2.1 (Expect)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 171: Benatky- Chomutov

Benatky is the surprise pack of the competition this year. They haven't lost in regulation since the 4th round, meaning they've taken points 9 games in a row. From a team that everyone saw as a Liberec farm team they've transformed into a contender for the first places. Lukas Kral is the player with most points in the league overall with 17 (4+13) and the goalie Stejskal is 4th in the league in save percentage with 92.5%. In the last 5 Benatky has a score of 3/1/1/0, both of the draws coming in away matches. At home they have won 4 of the last 5 and all wins came in regulation. Goal difference 18:11. Its noteworthy to mention thet they had shootouts in the last two home matches.
Chomutov have been getting into stride lately. They finally climbed up to a position that represents their ambitions more truthfully and now hold the 2nd place. Their away for has improved a lot too, they have two wins in a row. However, i feel the wins came against below average opponents (Pisek and Litomerice). Before that they played two teams(Jihlava and Olomouc)that are more like today's opponents and lost both. Their away score is 3/0/0/3 with goal difference 18:13 which means they play a lot of tight low scoring games and yet haven't drawn one so far.
The last two matches these two teams played ended in a regulation draw so that is the best indicator of how unpredictable the outcome of this one can be. Whenever that is the case i love to take the higher odds and today that says Benatky. My prediction is Benatky win in OT.

Pick: Benatky (incl OT and SO)@2.25 (Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 170: Edmonton- Nashville

A gift from Nordicbet. Edmonton will at least have a 50/50 shot of winning this one and having odds of 2.95 for them to win it in regular time is a luxury i can't miss.
Edmonton are every bit as good as Nashville and especially in their home arena they will give Nashville some trouble. Edmonton are better in 5 on 5 play (1.00 goals scored/goals received ratio to 0.62 Nashville) and given the fact that Nashville are not good penalty drawers (only 5 min of powerplay per game average) i can safely conclude that our bet is a good one even if it turns out a loser. On top, Nashville has been out-shot by all opponents so far this season. Their shot on goal to shot against ratio is 25.8/34.8. Edmonton is better, but still in minus (29/31.7).
Only trouble that can arise is Edmonton's inability to stay out of the penalty box. They are second worst with 19.7 mins per game and Nashville will punish such behavior, their powerplay is 4/13. Provided they do that and the second line produces the way they've produced so far, Edmonton can win this one easy.

Pick: Edmonton (win in 60 mins)@2.95 (Nordicbet)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 169: Toronto Maple Leafs- Colorado Avalanche

Two of the hottest teams in the NHL meet today in Toronto. Avs going for the fifth win in their road trip and Leafs going for 4-0-0. Not much to separate these two on paper. Last matches for both teams were tough wins, Avs beating the Canadiens in a 6-5 thriller and Leafs coming from behind to beat the Flames 3-2.
Not much separates these two teams. The most critical difference i see goes in favor of the Avs and that is why i am edging on their side. They are out-shooting opponents 33.2-32.2 in average, while the Leafs are getting out-shot by a lot, 26-32. In the matches that the Avs outshot the opponents they've won (2/2). Also, the Avs are much better on the powerplay, scored 6/20 times, which is 30% and the Leafs scored 2/17 times. My guess is the Avs will spend more of the time in powerplay than shorthanded because they have 10 PIM per game while Toronto has 17.
Only trouble might arise in 5/5 play where Toronto seems to outplay any opponent and has twice as much scored as received goals in 5/5. Colorado has a 0.88% rating in this stat. As far as penalty killing goes both teams havent been perfect, but not bad either (around 88%).
The only "handicap" for Avs might be Gigguere in goal instead of Varlamov, but i wouldnt call having Gigguere a handicap no matter what.

Pick: Colorado (+0.75)AH @1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 168: Pittsburgh Penguins- Buffalo Sabres

The Pens are still without their star player Crosby but that doesn't seem to bother them much. They are 3-0-2 to start the season and an unlikely star has risen in the absence of Crosby. James Neal is the goal-scoring leader in the NHL so far with 4 goals and no sign of stopping. Thanks to him the Pens lead in many other stats, one of which total goals scored and assists.Even though they have 2 OT defeats its safe to say they have outplayed all of their opponents by a landslide. The only question is when Crosby returns whether the same chemistry will function the way it did so far. Their last match was a loss to the Capitals in OT in a weird match in which they out-shot the Capitals 41-19!!
The Sabres had a disappointing home debut yesterday when they lost to the Canes, allowing two shorthanded goals. That totally ruined the good mood after the two wins in Europe and i think that will show at least at the beginning of this one. If they don't score the first goal things are not looking good for them. They will field Miller on goal again, who's with a horrible 1-6-0 score and 3.77 GAA against them. On the opposite side Fleury has 5-0-0 with 1.8.
The Pens are dominating the last 10 matches between these two teams with 8-1-1 score.

Pick: Pittsburgh (reg.time win)@ 2.45 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 167: Benatky- Havlickuv Brod

Benatky are the pleasant surprise of the competition this year. With the total of 22 points so far in 12 games they'we managed to gather as much points as they had in the 22 day of competition last year. They are a young team flying up and down the ice and surely will be one of the most effective home teams till the end of the season. The balance so far at home 3-0-1-1, the only loss in regular time coming to Hradec Kralove. Goal difference 13-11 says that nothing comes easy for opponents in Benatky. Their away ballance is even more impressive, given how the 1st division is a home-win heavy league. They've lost only one game in regular time on opponent's ice and that says a lot about the real strength of the team.
Today's opponents Havlickuv Brod both score and concede A LOT of goals. They are sitting 8th with the score 5-1-2-4 with GD of 48-43. They are the Jackyl and Hyde team of Division 1, with a great home score 5-0-1-1 and 35-20 GD and a terrible away score 0-1-1-3 with GD of 13-23. On top of this unpleasant score away come the potential missing players: their first goalie Neruda, defender Pavlik and forwards Vondracek and Nemec.

Pick: Benatky (incl OT and SO) @1.8 (bwin)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 166: Trebic- Usti nad Labem

Trebic so far have been performing far below their abilities and deservedly find themselves at the last place with 8 points and 1-1-3-7 score. As with every young team they need some time to get things going and results are starting to come lately. They've collected points in all of their last 3 home matches and almost created the sensation of the day in Wednesday when they took a two goal lead in the first 1/3 against Chomutov on their ice but didn't hold on to the lead and lost in OT.
Usti are a clear contender for the title this year, beating everyone that comes their way. They top the table with a score of 9-1-0-2 and 55-18 goal difference. At home they have a fort, 7-1-0-0 score and they've had mixed success in the 4 away matches, winning 2 and losing 2 of them. This match marks the beginning of a 4 game road trip for them and i believe this will be a good test of the real strength of the team.
What makes this match interesting and not so day-in-the-office win for Usti is the fact that both matches last year and 3 of the last 6 went in OT. Also, the power-play of Trebic, although they are rock bottom on the table is very good, in fact even better than Usti's with 21.57% conversion. With a few good power-plays Trebic can give Usti a run for their money.

Pick: Trebic(+1.5)AH @1.88 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 165: Buffalo Sabres- Carolina Hurricanes

Its the first home match of the season for the Sabres, after playing their two first matches in Europe. Wins of 4-1 and 4-2 against the Ducks and Kings give them a perfect start of the season, atmosphere should be electric, but there is a sense they are still beatable. Both matches they played in Europe ended with Sabres wins, but paradoxically in both matches they were out-shot by the opponents. Even further, they managed to have a third with 0 shots on goal (!!) against the Ducks in the 3rd. With the week off they might be a bit rusty at the start and sometimes that all the opponent needs to get it going.
Carolina are coming of a big home win against the reigning champs Boston and that will surely show in their attitude towards the match and their confidence. They are usually a very offensive minded team and stats show that at the beginning of the season too. They have same number of shots for and shot against (124, 31 per match). With this number of shots and some solid saves from Ward on goal they can cause a surprise in Buffalo.

Pick: Hurricanes (incl OT and SO) @2.65 (bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 164: Most- Kadan

Most is a team purely dependent on the players that will arrive from the Extraliga teams. Therefore they are highly unpredictable and a nightmare to follow. However, because of the huge loss to Jihlava two days ago and because of the fact that there is one Extraliga match to be played tomorrow i believe their team will be strengthened by more than a few quality players. With them and on home ice Most is capable of beating much stronger opponents than Kadan. Also in the loss to Jihlava, their first goalie at the moment (Valenta) was pulled and that surely must be a wake up call for him because getting pulled in matches in the second division surely isnt going to bring him any starts in Boleslav (the Extraliga club that owns him). All in all i expect much more composed effort from Most and at least a point gained from this match.
Kadan have a lot of trouble on the goalie spot, which is why they borrowed Cikanek from Kladno. They also have a lot of trouble in the other parts of the team. Only 12 players played all of the matches so far this season.

Pick: Most @2.2 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 163: Kadan- Usti nad Labem

Two different worlds meet here. Kadan a play-out contender with problems in the goalie post meets Usti nad Labem, the main candidate for promotion to Extraliga. On goal for Usti Orct with over 95% save average. Anything but a big away win will be a big surprise here.

Pick: Usti (-1.5)@ 2.1 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 162: Trebic- Havlickuv Brod

This match is a regional derby which adds motivation plus to all the players to give their best. One look at the table says a lot about the start of the campaigns of both teams. Havlickuv Brod with a score 4-1-2-3 with 38-35 goal difference and Sumperk dead last with 0-1-2-7 and a goal difference 19-37. All pointing to and easy away win. However, if the table was a merit to go by then everyone would be a winner and bookmakers wouldn't exist.
I expect a hard fought match and i cant really see that big of a difference as the bookies suggest. Trebic at home haven't been half as bad. They've lost two, won after OT one and lost one on penalties. The biggest home loss was against Hradec Kralove 2-4, the same team that thrashed Havlickuv Brod 8-4. In an interview for their website Radek Novak was disappointed by the way things are going this season, even more so because of the fact that they are out-shooting most of their opponents. For example in the last match, Saturday vs Benatky, they lost 4-0 and had 39 shots on goal. In comparison against today's opponent they have 38 more total shots on goal (320-282). This combined with the fact that both their goalies have over 90% save percentage makes this a much tighter match than it seemed at first glance.
The away form of Havlickuv Brod is also terrible: one win after OT, one loss on penalties and two 4 goal difference wipe-out losses. In a match played in August between the two teams, Brod won 3-5, but even the players of Brod were claiming that it was a 50/50 match and that the fact that this is a derby makes it even more tempting for both teams.
With the tight and scrappy match we could expect today i would recommend a home win and very few goals in total.

Pick: Under 5.5 @2.00 (bwin)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 161: Vitkovice- Mlada Boleslav

Boleslav is riding on a 3 game winning streak and Vitkovice is the perfect team that will end it.
Boleslav have 3 wins in the last three matches and they achieved them against some very tough opposition. They won against Kladno in a shootout, away at Pardubice and at home against Litvinov. The core of the team however is very thin and the key players can't handle the same tempo day in and day out. Even the captain of the team stated that they cant defeat anyone by destroying them and that they have to scrap for every point.
What makes today's trip even tougher is the fact that this is the longest away trip for Boleslav (350km or so) and it comes shortly after another away match at Pardubice. Vitkovice have always had a fortress at home and this year shall be no different. On goal they have the best goalie in the Extraliga Malek and scoring against Vitkovice is very hard (15 goals, best defense in Extraliga). They still might have trouble clicking in attack as they lost Huna and Vrana in the offseason (they accounted for 63 pts. in the regular season, 22 in the playoffs) and Vosatka.
However, for today's match and in today's circumstances i believe all is set up for the team to finally prove that they are a legitimate contender for the top spots.

Pick: Vitkovice @1.7 (Expect)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 160: Sparta Praha- Ocelari Trinec

Sparta enters this match as the worst home team in the league. This is most probably the reason the price was set so high, but the lack of points is due the fact that they only played two matches at home. They also played the NY Rangers as a part of the NHL preseason and lost that match 2-0, being more or less always in contention.
Last years head to head is not very pleasant from Sparta's perspective. They lost both home matches and one in Trinec. However, this shouldn't bother anyone because after the terrible year last year when Sparta didn;t even reach the palyoffs they went through a makeover of the team and released Vyborny and Kratena and instead of them got Jansky and rachunek (two NT players).
For this match they return to their own arena and the fans will finally want to see a convincing performance. They surely are capable of providing that for the fans. They are showing some excellent form lately by beating three very tough teams away from home. A team that defeats Zlin, Budejovice and Pardubice away is surely capable of beating weakened Trinec at home in front of 7000 fans. No players are missing for the team.
Trinec hit form lately too, but today they will have to play without their key players Bonk(4 goals, best scorer so far), Seman and long term injured Varada.

Pick: Sparta 2.25 @bet365
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 159: Most- Beroun

Pick from Czech hockey- second tier.
Beroun seems like a clear favorite here, especially after defeating the two hottest title contenders Chomutov and Usti in the last week. However, one look at the squads both teams will field might change the opinion.
Beroun will miss: Pacovsky, Zalcik, Husak (called up by Sparta, 4/4/3 matches played out of 9 so far). Pacovsky is curently one of the best players in Sparta so a big handicap for them. Kupec, Prindis called up in Karlovy Vary (4/9, 6/9), Poletin, Spelda in Slavia (5/9 & 7/9) and Herman & Strasky (5/9 &1/9). Also they will miss Soldan (8/9), Rubes (6/9), Dolezal (1/9) and long term injured Pavel and Hertl.
Most have been terrible so far and i guess management's patience has finally run out. For today's match they sent 3 of their standard players who were under performing in the 2 Division. Hranac 7/9, Kuncl 7/9 and Vrtek 5/9 are gone and instead of them three Extraliga players will play (Rindos, Maxa, Polak). Only handicap will be the absence of their first goalie Benda, but they've found a nice replacement in the form of Valent (Mlada Boleslav) who is an ex junior Slovakian NT player.
The entry fee for this match is 0 as an apologize for the fans for the performance against Usti.

Pick: Most -1.5 @3.5 (bwin)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 158: Armenia- Macedonia

It is silly to take the bookies opinion in this match and go with the home win. Several factors forced me to say this. Armenia, though being the surprise pack in these qualifiers, haven't really been that amazing as much as the opposition was weak. Out of the 4 wins they have so far 2 came against Andorra and 2 against Slovakia. Even though i respect Slovakia i can't really place them in the very best group of European teams. In the reverse fixture they almost shocked Macedonia in Skopje but couldn't hold on and conceded in the 90th minute on a questionable penalty. This match came as a shock to everybody in Macedonia, but i am sure the expectations will be adjusted now and they will take the match way more seriously.
On Macedonian side a couple of regulars are missing (Pandev, Tasevski, Naumovski, Ibraimi) but considering the way all 4 of them played recently that will be more of a benefit then a loss. The team was relying heavily on them and they dissapointed each and every time for the last few matches. Instead of them 4 young players with the will to impress will go out and give their 110%. Lead by young Trickovski who's in the form of his life (APOEL), supported by the experience of the older players (Noveski, Popov) i believe Macedonia will be at least 50/50 favorite to win this match.

Pick: Macedonia(+1) AH @1.65 (188bet)
Stake: 100

Pick 157: C.Budejovice- V. Zizkov

Last 16 teams are left in the Czech Ondrasovka cup. This is a round that is played in 2 legs so there will be a rematch in Prague too.
Budejovice are in an upward form after the change of coach Kotrba and have no missing players for this match. Today will mark the debut of their new keeper, Andrej Delac, a Croatian keeper, part of the NT. He actually declined the callup from the NT just so he can prepare better for upcoming matches. Budejovice will go out with their strongest lineup for this match since the NT matches are coming and players will have time to rest until the new league round. Last match Budejovice played ended 0-0 away at Hradec Kralove and surely it is a sign of better results to come because they could have just as easily won the game.
Zizkov have two key players missing: Slodowy and Nestorovski who were called up by their U21 national teams. Their ambition for this match is to go out with a playable result in the rematch so i am guessing a minimal defeat with a scored goal wouldnt hurt them too much.

Pick: Budejovice @2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 156: Vardar- Skendija

OMG how much wronger can bet365 be on this one. I am quite sure they are sleeping here and that they will correct this mistake shortly. However as things stand this is a super awesome value bet.
Vardar is a club with the largest tradition in Macedonia and every Macedonian is proud of it. This goes so far that they even returned the club administratively in the First division after the relegation last year by buying out the rights from a newly promoted club (Miravci). After that the club has undergone a large transformation and a lot of the stars that left to play in other countries returned to help. Results came instantly and Vardar is second without a loss (6-2-0) and a goal difference 10-3.
Skendija is a club lead by ethnic Albanians and most of the player that play there are Albanians. With the political situation in Macedonia this should be an added bonus for both teams to give their best. However, seing how Skendija struggled to score at home against Ohrid and Bregalnica i cant really see them scoring on the national arena with thousands of Vardar fans behind their team.

Pick: Vardar @1.9 (bet365)
Stake: 100

Result: WON

Pick 155: Napredok-Teteks

This should be a tough matchup but i definitely see Napredok taking this one. They have been successfully edging out opponents at home for a long time and that is the only factor keeping them in the league for quite a while. As a bonus they are getting their best player Markoski back in the lineup after serving a suspension in the last round. He is a heavily underrated midfielder capable of deciding a match with a 30 meter shot. Also with him back in the lineup i am sure they will be dictating most of the play and Teteks will try and counterattack.

Pick: Napredok @1.75 (Sportingbet)
Stake: 75

Result: WON
Note: I also have to mention this. The player returning from suspension Markoski received another red card, while in the lead 3-0. He as dumb as a bag of hammers. Expect Napredok to lose next round no matter who they are playing.