Sunday, September 18, 2016
Sunday, August 21, 2016
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Thursday, July 28, 2016
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Friday, July 22, 2016
Monday, July 18, 2016
Sunday, July 17, 2016
Saturday, July 16, 2016
Friday, July 15, 2016
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
Sunday, June 19, 2016
Saturday, June 18, 2016
Friday, June 17, 2016
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Wednesday, June 15, 2016
Sunday, June 12, 2016
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Saturday, June 4, 2016
Thursday, June 2, 2016
Wednesday, June 1, 2016
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Monday, May 30, 2016
Sunday, May 29, 2016
Thursday, May 26, 2016
Wednesday, May 25, 2016
Monday, May 23, 2016
MLB 23.5.16 COL Rockies @ PIT Pirates
This one is starting in less than in 40 minutes, so it will be just posted here and on my twitter account. I think the odds on overs are really tempting. Over 8.5 runs total is available at 2.00 at 5Dimes.
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Thursday, May 19, 2016
Sunday, May 15, 2016
Saturday, May 14, 2016
Breaking down the downswing
As much as it hurts to say, my tips have sucked tremendously during the month of May. So i sat down and did a bit of analysis as to what has changed. The answer: NOT MUCH!
Let me explain the method used. I'm open to any suggestion as to where i might have gone wrong in the maths.
First I divided the Wins and Losses for the month and labeled them all into three categories:
-ND (No doubter)- Where the win or loss were so clear, they were never in question really
-50-50 - Where the tip could have gone either way, when looking at how the match went
-OMG- Where its a miracle the tip won or lost, based on how it started
When labeling the tips using these categories I was rather conservative and leaned heavier towards the opposite direction. The result: out of 23 tips 12 were ND (3 won- 9 lost), 7 were 50-50 (2 of which were wins, 5 losses) and 4 were OMG (all 4 were losses).
I then recalculated the profit/loss in order to remove variance using the following criteria:
If the match ended as a win for me in real life i multiplied the profits using the following logic:
If W and ND= Net profit * 0,75
If W and 50-50= Net profit * 0,33
If W and OMG- Not applicable, none of the wins were come-from-behind
For the real life losses i applied the following logic:
If L and ND= - (Staked units)
If L and 50-50= Potential profit * 0,33
If L and OMG= Potential profit * 0,75
The result of this quite surprised me. The current month's profit/loss i've shown on Betrush is -92.89. The adjusted profit/loss by using the criteria above showed +2,44 !!
I am still not saying following me right now is the best idea ever, but at least i am certain i haven't lost it entirely. Hope I'll manage to get it together by the end of May and avoid erasing all of April's good work.
Let me explain the method used. I'm open to any suggestion as to where i might have gone wrong in the maths.
First I divided the Wins and Losses for the month and labeled them all into three categories:
-ND (No doubter)- Where the win or loss were so clear, they were never in question really
-50-50 - Where the tip could have gone either way, when looking at how the match went
-OMG- Where its a miracle the tip won or lost, based on how it started
When labeling the tips using these categories I was rather conservative and leaned heavier towards the opposite direction. The result: out of 23 tips 12 were ND (3 won- 9 lost), 7 were 50-50 (2 of which were wins, 5 losses) and 4 were OMG (all 4 were losses).
I then recalculated the profit/loss in order to remove variance using the following criteria:
If the match ended as a win for me in real life i multiplied the profits using the following logic:
If W and ND= Net profit * 0,75
If W and 50-50= Net profit * 0,33
If W and OMG- Not applicable, none of the wins were come-from-behind
For the real life losses i applied the following logic:
If L and ND= - (Staked units)
If L and 50-50= Potential profit * 0,33
If L and OMG= Potential profit * 0,75
The result of this quite surprised me. The current month's profit/loss i've shown on Betrush is -92.89. The adjusted profit/loss by using the criteria above showed +2,44 !!
I am still not saying following me right now is the best idea ever, but at least i am certain i haven't lost it entirely. Hope I'll manage to get it together by the end of May and avoid erasing all of April's good work.
Friday, May 13, 2016
Thursday, May 12, 2016
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Monday, May 9, 2016
Sunday, May 8, 2016
Saturday, May 7, 2016
Friday, May 6, 2016
Thursday, May 5, 2016
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
MLB 4.5.16 LA Angels @ MIL Brewers
Angels to take this one- Repeat attempt after coming close yesterday :)
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
Monday, May 2, 2016
Thursday, April 28, 2016
Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Tuesday, April 26, 2016
Monday, April 25, 2016
Sunday, April 24, 2016
Saturday, April 23, 2016
Friday, April 22, 2016
Monday, April 18, 2016
Saturday, April 16, 2016
Friday, April 15, 2016
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Monday, April 11, 2016
MLB 11.4.16 PIT Pirates@ DET Tigers
Bonus, posted only on the blog, nowhere else.
-Detroit to be in the lead after 3 innings @ 2.00 (Bet 365).
10 minutes to the start, get on it quick.
-Detroit to be in the lead after 3 innings @ 2.00 (Bet 365).
10 minutes to the start, get on it quick.
Sunday, April 10, 2016
Saturday, April 9, 2016
Friday, April 8, 2016
Wednesday, April 6, 2016
Tuesday, April 5, 2016
Monday, April 4, 2016
Sunday, April 3, 2016
Saturday, April 2, 2016
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Friday, March 25, 2016
Sunday, March 20, 2016
Wednesday, March 16, 2016
Tuesday, March 15, 2016
Monday, March 14, 2016
Sunday, March 13, 2016
Saturday, March 12, 2016
MLB 12.3.2016
The MLB is back! Sort off... Its Spring Training time.
My first pick of the season is here. Marlins to lose against the Red Sox.
My first pick of the season is here. Marlins to lose against the Red Sox.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
Monday, January 11, 2016
Sunday, January 10, 2016
Sunday, January 3, 2016
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