Saturday, March 30, 2013

MLB Preseason 30.3: CHC- HOU


I said i won't be getting involved in any more action before the regular season starts, but this is too good to miss.
These two teams enter this match with rather different motivation and expectations. Houston are opening the season with Texas tomorrow and they are just trying to finish off what has been a gruelling pre-season, made a bit longer due to the World Baseball Clasic. Chicago are fielding Travis Wood on the mound and the following 9:

dejesus
castro
rizzo
soriano
schierholtz
castillo
valbuena
barney
hairston

These 9 combine for .734 On Base + Slugging (OPS), which is just around the Cubs OPS average this spring season (.768).
On the other hand Houston, besides the pitcher Brad Peacock, are fielding the following hitters:

crowe
correa
singleton
laird
jd martinez
springer
jaramillo
santana
deshields

Of these nine only 4 have at bats at the Major league levels and their combined MLB regular season OPS is 0.638. This is far below the average Houston posted this spring (.807). Given the fact that they won't be trying to do too much today i dont expect any of their first team members to appear.
The pitcher comaprison looks the same. Houston post a pitcher with 11.0 innings of experience in the big leagues against a veteran with 364.66 IP in the Majors.

TIP: At odds of 2.00 the Chicago Cubs are a clear banker.

Result: LOST

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Preseason lockdown

Ok boys and the occasional girls that happened to missclick their way to my blog, its time to wrap up these preseason shenanigans and sit back eagerly awaiting the start of the real deal.


Given the way players are behaving the last games of spring training i believe looking for patterns and profitable bets is just too much to ask for. We can wait it out until the 1st of April and keep on winning from there. Don't get me wrong, we performed better than i had ever expected in the spring training but the real deal is the real deal. No more pitchers getting themselves into 3-0 situations on purpose, no more batters trying the swing with their weaker hand.

1st of April is not that far away after all. We finish the preseason with the following score:

Preseason: W 50 - L 36 -VOID 5, LSP +20.86, ROI 24.26% 

Hope we can get anywhere near this for the regular season. Anything above 5% would be spectacular, given my sucky track record with the other ventures I've tried out on this piece of the blogosphere.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

MLB 27.3.2013 (3rd batch)


Total win chance
Min odds
HOU
0.4920
2.032
NYM
0.5080
1.969

TIP: HOU @ 2.27 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
NYY
0.4916
2.034
BAL
0.5084
1.967
TIP: NYY @ 2.22 WON

MLB 27.3.2013 (2nd batch)


Total win chance
Min odds
COL
0.4889
2.045
OAK
0.5111
1.957

TIP: COL @ 2.18 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
LAD
0.4885
2.047
SEA
0.5115
1.955
TIP: LAD @ 2.22 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
SD
0.5070
1.972
CIN
0.4930
2.028
TIP: SD @ 2.27 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
SF
0.5235
1.910
ARI
0.4765
2.099
TIP: SF @ 2.01 WON

MLB Preseason 27.3 (1st batch)

This is just for the two matches starting in less than an hour. Will post more later.


Total win chance
Min odds
CLE
0.5069
1.973
CWS
0.4931
2.028

TIP: CLE @ 2.15 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
TEX
0.4723
2.117
LAA
0.5277
1.895
NO BET

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

MLB Preseason 26.3.2013 (2nd batch)


Total win chance
Min odds
HOU
0.4798
2.084
NYY
0.5202
1.922

TIP: HOU @ 2.57 VOID


Total win chance
Min odds
CIN
0.4993
2.003
CHC
0.5007
1.997
NO BET


Total win chance
Min odds
COL
0.5100
1.961
LAD
0.4900
2.041
TIP: COL @ 2.33 WON


Total win chance
Min odds
LAA
0.5194
1.925
ARI
0.4806
2.081
TIP: LAA @ 2.04 LOST

MLB Preseason 26.3.2013 (1st batch)


Total win chance
Min odds
CWS
0.5277
1.895
TEX
0.4723
2.117

TIP: CWS @ 2.22 WON


Total win chance
Min odds
KC
0.5076
1.970
SEA
0.4924
2.031
TIP: KC @ 2.11 WON


Total win chance
Min odds
OAK
0.5068
1.973
CLE
0.4932
2.028
TIP: OAK @ 2.18 WON


Total win chance
Min odds
SD
0.5222
1.915
SF
0.4778
2.093
TIP: SD @ 2.18 LOST

Monday, March 25, 2013

25.3.2013 (3rd batch)

Last batch of the day containing the evening matches.


Total win chance
Min odds
WAS
0.5157
1.939
HOU
0.4843
2.065

NO BET


Total win chance
Min odds
PIT
0.5060
1.976
TB
0.4939
2.024
TIP: PIT@ 2.28 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
LAD
0.4691
2.132
KC
0.5309
1.884
NO BET


Total win chance
Min odds
CLE
0.5249
1.905
COL
0.4751
2.105
TIP: CLE @ 2.07 LOST

25.3.2013 (2nd batch)

Second batch, matches starting at 9.05 CET. Will update for the last few.


Total win chance
Min odds
MIL
0.5226
1.913
OAK
0.4774
2.095

TIP: MIL @ 2.16 LOST


Total win chance
Min odds
LAA
0.4964
2.015
CWS
0.5036
1.986
TIP: LAA @ 2.1 WON


Total win chance
Min odds
SEA
0.5165
1.936
CIN
0.4835
2.068
TIP: SEA @ 2.03 WON


Total win chance
Min odds
SF
0.4874
2.052
CHC
0.5126
1.951
NO BET


Total win chance
Min odds
TEX
0.5037
1.985
SD
0.4963
2.015
NO BET

MLB Preseason 25.3 (1st batch)

These are the odds and tips for the matches played at 6.05 CET. The rest will follow later this afternoon.

Total win chance
Min odds
BOS
0.4725
2.117
BAL
0.5275
1.896

TIP: BOS @ 2.18 LOST
Total win chance
Min odds
DET
0.4912
2.036
MIA
0.5088
1.965
TIP: MIA @ 2.2 LOST
Total win chance
Min odds
NYM
0.4950
2.020
ATL
0.5050
1.980
TIP: NYM @ 2.26 WON
Total win chance
Min odds
PHI
0.4629
2.160
TOR
0.5371
1.862
TIP: PHI @ 2.32 LOST
Total win chance
Min odds
STL
0.4808
2.080
MIN
0.5192
1.926
TIP: MIN @ 2.01 LOST

Sunday, March 24, 2013

MLB Pick of the day 24.3.2013

You will notice I've left out Miami vs. Houston match in this afternoon's first post. That's because i was using it to perfect my formulas and I believe this formula is much better at depicting the realistic odds of a team winning the match. Its a hell of a time-consumer though, so I might not be using it as much (unless i lose my job:))


Total win chance
Min odds
MIA
0.5241
1.908
HOU
0.4759
2.101

I've bet Miami at 2.05 on Pinnacle for my tip of the day. Good luck if you decide to follow.

RESULT: LOST in a shortened 5 innings game due to rain. Miami outhit HOU in that period 10-5 but couldn't drive in the runs.

MLB Preseason 24.3.2013



1. Total win chance Min odds
ATL 0.5259 1.902
WAS 0.4741 2.109
TIP: ATL @ 2.14 LOST


2. Total win chance Min odds
BAL 0.5102 1.960
PIT 0.4898 2.042
NO BET


3. Total win chance Min odds
BOS 0.5157 1.939
PHI 0.4843 2.065
TIP: BOS @ 2.12 WON


4. Total win chance Min odds
TB 0.4984 2.007
NYY 0.5016 1.993
TIP: TB @ 2.05 LOST


5. Total win chance Min odds
TOR 0.5185 1.929
MIN 0.4815 2.077
TIP: TOR @ 2.01 LOST


6. Total win chance Min odds
CHC 0.4620 2.165
CLE 0.5380 1.859
NO BET


7. Total win chance Min odds
CIN 0.4748 2.106
TEX 0.5252 1.904
NO BET


8. Total win chance Min odds
KC 0.5204 1.922
CWS 0.4796 2.085
TIP: KC @ 2.00 WON


9. Total win chance Min odds
LAD 0.4790 2.087
OAK 0.5210 1.920
NO BET


10. Total win chance Min odds
SF 0.4948 2.021
LAA 0.5052 1.979
TIP: SF @ 2.11 WON


11. Total win chance Min odds
SEA 0.5145 1.944
ARI 0.4855 2.060
TIP: SEA @ 2.1 LOST