Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Pick 4 Naomi Broady vs. Anne Keothavong

I am going to go with the less obvious one in this matchup. Broady at 2.88 is just too good to miss. My guess is that you can get it up to 2.9 at betfair because 2.88 is the back price offered atm and the lay price is 2.9. The logic behind this one is that you only need her to win 1 out of 3 matches at this odds and you have a positive expected value. With that serve and hopefully with a few more percentage points in the "first serve %" column i think she could beat Keothavong.
The main factor inflating the price, i think, is the head-to-head, which is 2-0 in favor of Keothavong. First match was in Nothingam 2010 where she comfortably beat her 2-0. Same venue, only this year, the match was much tighter and ended 2-1 (7-5 in the last set).
For those of you not so keen to bet on the underdog this also might be used as a great trade-out-in-play opportunity.

Tip: Broady to win @2.88
Stake: 50

Result: The kid was a moron! No backhand whatsoever and a zillion unforced errors. It was enough just to return it over the net and she would take care of the rest. Terrible loss. In running trading out with a profit shouldn't have been a problem at all.
W-L: 2-2
P/L: -50
Overal P/L: -68.3

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