Sunday, February 19, 2012

The psychology behind big odds

Sports bettors have a tendency to avoid large odds for no apparent reason.
A value bet is a value bet, regardless of the price. Its true that large odds bring large variance in terms of losing streaks, but at the right price, there's no reason to avoid placing a bet on the team you think might win 1 of 3 or 1 of 4 games against the same opponent. With the sportsbooks getting sharper with each and every bet they take, we can not allow ourselves to pass up an +EV opportunity.
I compare the sportsbooks to the stock market for numerous reasons. And just like on the stock market, in the sports betting game trends and price don't always reflect the real value of an asset. It is sometimes much better to do your studying properly and choose the heavy underdog in the right moment and understandably, for the right price.

In that spirit here's my selection of less favored results for today's matches. Good luck if you choose some.

1. Bohemians-Jablonec Draw@ 3.63 (Pinnacle)
2. Hanover- Stuttgart Draw @3.51 (5dimes)
3. PAOK- Aris Over 2.5 @3.01 (Pinnacle)
4. Pallermo- Lazio 2 @ 3.71 (Sportbet)

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