Seeing how the weekend went (ultra well) and how things are shaping up today (terribly) i figure the biggest obstacle i will have to overcome is variance.
Using my semi-contrarian approach I've evolved into, it's hard to tell when the drought will start and how long will it take for it to go away. The stats (for football tips only) for this month are saying i have a 34% strike rate and a lsp of 25.47 (all bets i made were the same stake so lsp and profits are the same). This means i am having a blast of a month with just a 1/3 of the matches going my way. The way I've been tipping this month i cant really see many months that will top this strike rate, but i can see a lot of months going mid 20-ish. I hope i am wrong on this, but i can't be that far off the grim and sad reality. It's not every day you hit 2-3 odds priced 5.0 or better.
The biggest and best in this business are exactly that because of the discipline they possess and show in periods like that. Continuing to do your thing even when the going gets tough is a virtue that separates the winners from the other 98%. I will have to remind myself of this every time i am in a huge slump.
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