Breaking down the downswing

As much as it hurts to say, my tips have sucked tremendously during the month of May. So i sat down and did a bit of analysis as to what has changed. The answer: NOT MUCH!

Let me explain the method used. I'm open to any suggestion as to where i might have gone wrong in the maths.

First I divided the Wins and Losses for the month and labeled them all into three categories:

-ND (No doubter)- Where the win or loss were so clear, they were never in question really
-50-50 - Where the tip could have gone either way, when looking at how the match went
-OMG- Where its a miracle the tip won or lost, based on how it started

When labeling the tips using these categories I was rather conservative and leaned heavier towards the opposite direction. The result: out of 23 tips 12 were ND (3 won- 9 lost), 7 were 50-50 (2 of which were wins, 5 losses) and 4 were OMG (all 4 were losses).

I then recalculated the profit/loss in order to remove variance using the following criteria:

If the match ended as a win for me in real life i multiplied the profits using the following logic:

If W and ND= Net profit * 0,75
If W and 50-50= Net profit * 0,33
If W and OMG- Not applicable, none of the wins were come-from-behind

For the real life losses i applied the following logic:

If L and ND= - (Staked units)
If L and 50-50= Potential profit * 0,33
If L and OMG= Potential profit * 0,75

The result of this quite surprised me. The current month's profit/loss i've shown on Betrush is -92.89. The adjusted profit/loss by using the criteria above showed +2,44 !!

I am still not saying following me right now is the best idea ever, but at least i am certain i haven't lost it entirely. Hope I'll manage to get it together by the end of May and avoid erasing all of April's good work.