Pick 121: Lithuania- Serbia

These odds are way too good to miss. Serbia is at 2.17 and i see no particular reason why Lithuania is to be treated as a favorite here.It will all come down to who picks up more rebounds and i think Lithuania is an underdog there, even more so after losing their center Petravicius to injury. Serbia has won all the games in which they out-rebounded their opponents and lost the only one where they lost in this stat (against France).

Pick: Serbia @2.17 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

RESULT: LOST

Pick 120: Isner- Simon

Simon had an emotionally draining match in the last round against Del Potro and i find betting against players winning those matches very profitable. Isner on the other hand had a smooth way to this round, most games played against Baghdatis in the first round. He is in great form, winning the tournament in Winston Salem last week and playing the best tennis in his career. American hardcourts seem to be extracting an extra effort of all US players and i wouldnt be surprised if we saw Isner in the semifinal, maybe even further.

Pick: Isner(-3.5) @2.75 (paddypower)
Stake: 75

RESULT: LOST

Pick 119: Austria-Turkey

Serdar Kesimal, Selçuk Inan , Nuri Sahin , Emre Belezoglu , Hamit Altintop and Gökhan Gönül are missing in Turkey's squad. The rest of the team, at least the players that play in the home championship don't have any competitive matches under their belts this season. Austria is in a slump, but has been scoring a lot of goals even when losing the match. Concidering how generous the odds on them are this is surely worth a try. There's a downward trend in the HW odds from about 3.4 to around 3.0 where they are now.

Pick: Austria @3.2 (ladbrokes)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST

Pick 118: Bosnia- Belarus

Bosnia is a big favorite here, for some apparent reason, but what everyone seem to forget is that Belarus can stifle a match like there is no tomorrow. France made sure of this and basically most of their opponents experienced this in their previous matches. Their goal difference is 6-4 after 8 matches and this probably sums it up the best.

Pick: Under 2.5 @1.83 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result:WON

Pick 117: Macedonia- Finland

Macedonia has a very good front-court with Antic, Gecevski, Cekovski and Samardziski and nothing comes easy in the paint against them. However, the last two wins against Croatia and Greece might be a bit emotionally draining and they might enter this match a bit rusty. If the spread was 7 or more i might have been tempted to take Finland, but this way i think the Under 148.5 might be a better alternative. The only real high scoring match Finland played was against Croatia 84-79. Yesterdays blow out against Bosnia isn't a realistic representation of their offensive strength since Bosnia took out their best players in order for them to be fresh for Croatia. Had it been close, the total would have been much lower.

Pick: Under 148.5 @1.9 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 116: Israel- Latvia

I was surprised to see that this match is expected to be the highest scoring one of the day. Both teams have been terrible so far and the maximum any of them scored was 80 (Israel against Serbia). With the spread at 161.5 both teams are expected to reach that mark. For that to happen someone will have to generate a lot of offense for both teams and i just cant see that happening looking at both rosters. The way i see it this will be an ugly game with the winner decided by a longish run in the third or fourth.

Pick: Under 161.5 @1.9(Bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 115: Swindon- Rotheram

Swindon was the hot favorite for the league before it started but after the first round the wheels fell totally off. They lost the next four matches after an opening win and emotions are very heated in the squad. This culminated during this weeks match against Southampton where the manager Di Canio had a huge fight with the best striker Clarke and told media he wont be selecting him in the squad two weeks after buying him from QPR.
I've heard an interview with Di Canio where he praises the way they create chances and the only thing missing is the finishing. Hopefully with the change upfront realization of chances will increase too. The team (and subsequently the odds) is not that bad as it seems at the moment and surely a televised match might be the ignition spark to get the team going.

Pick: Swindon (-0.25)AH @2.27 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result:3-2

Pick 114: Kunitsyn- Melzer

Kunitsyn had a wonderful come-back win yesterday when he managed to overcome a 0-2 deficit and win against Bachinger. Melzer is a totally different animal, but i still think they are more or less evenly matched and that we're in for a long one here.
Their only head to head adds to the credibility of this theory because there was virtually nothing between those two and the match ended 6-4 3-6 6-3 in favor of Kunitsyn. However, this was 2008 (on clay) so we shouldn't put that much emphasis on it. Either way i still think Kunitsyn is good enough for a set here, maybe even more.

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @1.72 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: 3-2

Pick 113: Andora- Armenia

I like the odds on the away team here. They have played some great matches and got unlucky in a few crucial moments, otherwise they would have been in contention for one of the top places, however impossible that might seem. They lost 2 points in the 94th minute in Macedonia on a really questionable penalty. Also lost to Ireland at home with a goal in the 76th minute and beat Slovakia at home and drew away with Russia.
Their oponent today is Andora, a team they beat 4-0 at home and should have no problem beating again easily. In total they have score 5-1-0 with them with a goal difference 17-2.

Pick: Armenia -1.5 @2.07 (188bet)
Stake: 100

Result: WIN

Pick 112: Dolgopolov- Cipolla

Cipolla has defeated some powerful opposition in the previous few weeks on the way to this match. Clement, Ilhan, Sweeting, Nishikori are all on that list and i am not sure Dolgopolov can defeat most of them in straight sets. They've met once before in a tight match, Dolgopolov won 2-1. From all of these facts i deducted there will be a few tight sets in this one and i will pick the Over 3.5 sets as my bet. You can also try the "Tiebreak in the match" market, where "Yes" is offered at a price over 2.

Pick: Over 3.5 sets @2.2(Bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: 3-2