Pick 131: Spain- Macedonia

I understand that Macedonia is a big outsider in this match, but a 18.5 spread is just too much. The biggest loss Macedonia suffered for the duration of the tournament was by 5 points to Montenegro in overtime. The only other loss was against Russia with a weird 3-pointer in the last second of the match. Now, all of the sudden a 19 point spread is set in the semifinals of the championship.
I don't really see how Macedonia can win this game, but they've kept every single match they've played so far tight and if they manage to do that at least for 3 quarters today the spread shouldn't be covered by Spain at the end. With their defense as tight as it was against Lithuania this should be a low scoring match.
There is an emotional factor as well as the quality factor involved. The whole country is standing behind its players and a blowout victory will be a huge disappointment and the players know that.
As far as Spain is concerned they've had a smooth ride so far, with the only hiccup coming against Turkey in a meaningless match. Out of all the matches they've played though there were only three blowout victories that would cover today's spread. One was against Great Britain, second against Serbia and third against France, where most of France's best players were rested.

Pick: Macedonia +18.5 @1.8 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 130: Paok- Tottenham

Friedel, Bale, Kaboul, Gallas, Dawson, King, Assou-Ekotto, Jenas, Bentley, Huddlestone, Lennon, Parker, Van der Vaart, Modric, Kranjcar, Rose, Sandro, Pienaar, Adebayor and Defoe. Am i listing Tottenham's team for today? No! I am listing their players that will not play in Greece. With odds of 2.6 available for PAOK i would be a fool not to take this opportunity. Under 2.5 is also a good bet as PAOK are missing two strikers.

Pick: PAOK @2.63
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

Pick 129: Erakovic- Falconi

This match has caught my attention due to the odd price movement. Erakovic was heavily favored when the odds came out with odds as low as 1.60-70 and then all of a sudden a lot of money came in on Falcone and shifted the odds in favor of her. Now you can find Erakovic at odds above 2 and i surely believe she has at least 50-50 shot at this match. She showed some stellar performances on hard court this year by beating Azarenka, Arvidson and Vesnina and showed some really poor performances by losing to Lucic. With that Jackyl and Hyde attitude it sure is good to put the money on odds above 2.0 and hope the right Erakovic shows up.

Pick: Erakovic @2.06 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

Pick 128: Vaduz- Delemont

Seems a lot of money went in on Vaduz here. The odds for the home win plummeted and there is absolutely no value left in betting on the home team. In fact, the dropping odds even made the away team the nicer bet proposition.

Pick: Delemont(+1.5) AH@1.80 (bet365)
Stake: 50

Result: Lost

Pick 127: Ciudad Real- Valladolid

This is a match from the Spanish handball league. I chose it because the spread moved from -5 to -8 and 9 goals difference is huge. I don't believe there is a team in the Spanish league that will be losing matches by that margin on regular basis.

Pick: Valladolid (+8)AH @1.93 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 126: Cleveland Browns- Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure how long these odds are going to stay like this so pound on it until they are there. The usual line set up by the bookies is -6.5 and Victor Chandler are giving them at -3.5 and odds of 1.87 for the home win. Whether they claim they are better at capping the NFL games or they just made a mistake remains to be seen.

Pick: Cleveland (-3.5) @1.87 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

Pick 125: Nordsjaelland- Sonderjyske

This is a match from the Danish Jack&Jones Handball league, which i know nothing of. However i know something about moving odds and spreads and what that means. In this match the spread went from +3.5 to -3.5. This in terms means that a LOT of money came in on the home side and the bookies are having a last ditch attempt to generate some income on the away side. With the spread changing 7 units i'd be more than happy to give them some action. It can't be that they set up the line that terribly the first time. I think they've overreacted on some rich guy (or a group following an important tipster) entering the market on the home win with a lot of money and overkilled the spread on the opposite side.

Pick: Sonderjyske (+3.5) @2 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 50

Result: WON

Pick 124: Bray- St.Patricks

Bray has nowhere to go in the table and a lot of missing players, most of them in deffence. D. Massey, A. Mitchell, D. O'Connor, C. Shields, G. Dempsey and M. Gregg. All of them have over 20 starts in the 27 matches they've played this season. St. Patricks will be missing one forward (Daly). The rest of the crew is in good shape and ready to battle for europa league spots in the last two matches.

Pick: St.Patrics @1.8 (dOXXBET)
Stake: 100

RESULT:WON

Pick 123: Dukla Prague- Hradec Kralove

I see nothing between these two teams in this match. Details will decide the winner and i am sure Hradec will be the more creative team in the match. That didn't always work out good for them in the past as they have lost many matches where they outplayed the opponent and lost. Best example is a pre-season match between these two where Hradec was the one playing, but Dukla was the one scoring and they ended up winning 3-1. However, Hradec is comming out of yet another spell of matches played in that fashion, where the lost 3 times in a row and were playing equally or better than the opponent and after these three matches they had two weeks off to rethink things and regroup and i think they will return today with a fresher look and score a few.

Pick: Hradec Kralove(+0)AH @2.08 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75

RESULT:LOST

Pick 122: Mypa- Marienhamn

I was surprised to see the odds above 2.00 on the home win here. Mypa is in good form, having won the last two games and Marienhamn is in atrocious form, having lost 4 of the last 5. At home Mypa are hot and cold with 5-1-5 score and Marienhamn are a terible away team with 2-1-9, goal difference 7-19 and lost the last 5 away matches.

Pick: Mypa win @2.06 (pinnacle)
Stake: 100

RESULT: LOST