Friday, September 16, 2011

Pick 131: Spain- Macedonia

I understand that Macedonia is a big outsider in this match, but a 18.5 spread is just too much. The biggest loss Macedonia suffered for the duration of the tournament was by 5 points to Montenegro in overtime. The only other loss was against Russia with a weird 3-pointer in the last second of the match. Now, all of the sudden a 19 point spread is set in the semifinals of the championship.
I don't really see how Macedonia can win this game, but they've kept every single match they've played so far tight and if they manage to do that at least for 3 quarters today the spread shouldn't be covered by Spain at the end. With their defense as tight as it was against Lithuania this should be a low scoring match.
There is an emotional factor as well as the quality factor involved. The whole country is standing behind its players and a blowout victory will be a huge disappointment and the players know that.
As far as Spain is concerned they've had a smooth ride so far, with the only hiccup coming against Turkey in a meaningless match. Out of all the matches they've played though there were only three blowout victories that would cover today's spread. One was against Great Britain, second against Serbia and third against France, where most of France's best players were rested.

Pick: Macedonia +18.5 @1.8 (V.Chandler)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

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