MLB Preseason: NY Yankees - Atlanta Braves

As I wrote a few days ago I am all excited about the new MLB season. I've been following the pre-season like never before and as the number of matches played increases some trends are already visible. Therefore I will try and analyse a few matches hoping we might make some money out of that. Please note, no one cares about the score in pre-season matches, not even the players. Because of that fact things might go horribly when trying to predict the outcomes.

For the first analysis I chose Yankees (3-10) vs. Braves (7-8)

Starters:

The starters (source mlb.com) are Jose Ramirez (NYY) and Mike Minor (ATL).

I expect none of them will be on the mound longer than 3.1 innings. 3.1 innings, however, is 37% of the match so there's plenty of opportunity to destroy your team's chances of winning in those 10 outs. I don't believe that will be the case today though.

Ramirez doesn't have any MLB starts to his name. His stats
Spring training 2013: 5.0IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 1SO, .176 AB%, 0.8 WHIP, 0.00 ERA
Career (in minors): 420.0IP, 386H, 210R, 149BB, 392SO, .241AB%, 1.27 WHIP, 3.73ERA

Minor:
Spring 2013: 5.0 IP, 4H, 2R, 3BB, 7SO, .211AB%, 1.4WHIP, 3.60ERA
Reg.season MLB: 302.2IP, 297H, 155R, 97BB, 265SO, .259AB%, 1.3WHIP, 4.37ERA

I am giving the edge to Atlanta because of Minors MLB experience. He has improved in all of his three MLB seasons and Ramirez hasn't been constantly facing major league hitters.

Relievers:

I expect Rondon, Claiborne and Miller to make an appearance for the Yankees. They've combined 14.1 innings, 1 run allowed, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts.
On the Braves side Avilan should make an appearance, for the rest no one knows. He has been awesome in 5.1 innings of work, allowing no runs, 3 hits and .167 average.

Yankees bullpen faired better this pre-season as a whole: 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP vs 6.09 ERA, 1.59 WHIP for the Braves bullpen. Clearly the edge in this category goes to the Yankees.

Hitting:

Stats in the spring training so far:

ATL: 15G, 4.73 RPG, 9.93HPG, .780OPS
NYY: 13G, 4.00RPG, 9.30HPG, .701OPS (29th in MLB)

Needless to say, the edge here goes to ATL.

To summarize it all, I expect a low-scoring affair here (as much as one can be in the pre-season) with a slight edge going on the Braves side. Given the fact that the guys in Bet365 are offering Atlanta at 2.00 to win it I believe its worth investing a few dollars.

Tip: Atlanta Braves @2.00 (Bet365)

RESULT: WON, +1.00lsp

What's cooking on Today we bet

I've been meaning to write for the past two weeks since my return from the holidays but something always came up and ruined the motivation.Plus, the +30 to -10 degrees return didn't help in the process.
Anyhow, enough bragging, back to business. I am looking at a new approach on Betfair dealing with people's psychology more than anything else. Its a project on how people react when dealing with rapidly diminishing odds. It has got some potential, will see if it is worth he time invested.

On the other hand, I am getting super excited about the start of MLB 1st of April. I am preparing a spreadsheet for all teams and I will be updating it as much as possible to see if some profit can be made of betting on baseball. Its a stats game after all, and I love stats. Not too exciting to watch though. We'll see how it goes. I've already compiled a ridiculous list of stats I will be checking when analysing matches. If properly followed it will take me more than an hour to analyse one match, so I don't see that going far. More realistically, if I manage to do that for one match per day and keep the discipline to bet on that match only, it should be a profitable venture. I am not saying a worth-while one, but a profitable nonetheless.

Random tips for 20.1

This will be the last batch for this month (maybe one more later for the US sports) as i am leaving for a holiday in Thailand tomorrow. Motivator:

I will be back again, hopefully with new tips 12.2.2013.

1. Chelsea - Arsenal x 3.75 (bet365) LOST
2. Chelsea - Arsenal u2.5 2.25 (bet365) LOST
3. AC Milan- Bologna u2.5 2.00 (Unibet) LOST
4. Atalanta - Cagliari o2.5 2.25 (Will Hill) WON
5. Chievo - Parma 1 2.8 (bet-at-home) LOST
6. Chievo- Parma o2.5 2.38 (Will Hill) LOST
7. Genoa - Catania u2.5 1.91 (Will Hill) WON
8. Pescara- Torino x 3.2 (bwin) LOST
9. Siena - Sampdoria o2.5 2.43 (10bet) LOST
10. Roma- Inter 2 3.6 (Will Hill) LOST
11. Osasuna- La Coruna x 3.4 (Sportingbet) LOST
12. Osasuna - La Coruna u2.5 1.73 (bet365) LOST
13. Valladolid- Zaragoza 2 3.8 (bwin) LOST
14. Valladolid- Zaragoza o2.5 2.15 (Will Hill) LOST
15. Germany(-2.5)- Macedonia 1 1.85 (bet365) WON
16. Denmark (-6.0)- Tunisia 2 1.95 (bet365) LOST

Score: 3-13, -9.99 lsp

On beating the Goliath

I was going over today's schedule, unable to find any real value (besides maybe the two matches i already posted) and I gave odds a really deep thought.

Team A plays team B. Team A is priced at 2.00 to win the match. In probability terms, the bookmaker expects team A will win 50% of the matches these teams will play under the current circumstances. Injuries, suspensions, weather, home field etc.are all factors that affect these odds given by the bookie. The average Joe will go online, check the odds for the A vs.B match and pick a side. This effectively turns the situation into a head to head matchup: the bookie vs. the average Joe. And the random punter stands NO CHANCE!

Let me elaborate why I think this:

1. The bookie has the edge before the duel even starts. No bookmakers give 100% of the book. The best offer is around 95% giving a 5% edge to the house. This means our average Joe needs to be 5% better than the house just to break even.
2. The bookmakers offer the odds based on an industry-wide average created by some of the sharpest minds following the sport in question. If you are betting with bet365 you not only have to beat their bookmakers, but the bookmakers of all the others bookies, since they are following the trends and movements of odds and none of them stays behind on a trend. This moves the match into a more colossal proportion: Average Joe vs. The whole betting industry (+ their 5% edge). I know who am I betting on in this match.
3. Average Joe's train of thought that he uses to make the pick might be incomplete (hasn't heard about the latest injury, didn't read about the suspended players), biased (he's a huge team A fan) or flat out flawed (team A hasn't drawn in 37 matches in a row, they are due this time). The bookies are the exact opposite: their information is up to date and implemented into the odds at all times. They are not biased, quite the opposite, they are expecting to take the right amount of bets on each side and close out the book with profit regardless of the outcome of the match (remember the 5% mentioned earlier?). They don't use flawed logic in determining the odds. They are trying to represent the exact probabilities of a team succeeding in any given match.

Reading this on a blog trying to prove money can be made by smart betting might send out a mixed signal. The truth is, to find the light at the end of the tunnel you have to dig deep and work hard. There are people that are living off betting for decades. That proves its doable. That's the good news. The bad news, its not for everybody. Not everyone can do it and not everyone can understand what makes a bettor a profitable one. Its a long, nerve-wracking road. Just ask any professional gambler whether they would change the profession they chose if they could go back in time.

To end this on a more positive note I'll try and summarize what i think average Joes should do before ever venturing on a more serious betting journey.

1. Information is king. If you are able to get some fresh information that you are certain isn't contained in the existing odds MILK IT! Milk it until it dries out and the market adjusts to it.

2. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Read some good bankroll management tactics, the internet is full of them. Just because you think a bet is huge value doesn't mean you should lose your house on it. There will be another day, another match. If you have what to bet with, that is.

3. Follow the sport you're betting on closely. If you're betting just to make your Sunday evening more fun you don't have to do this. This whole post is not addressed to you in that case. But if you want to get semi-serious about betting you have to do your homework. Knowing how the teams breath is the only way you might get a slight edge over the bookie and his house edge.

4. This is connected to 3. Don't go into many markets. Just because you know a lot about the Chinese 2. ping-pong division that doesn't mean you will be a good Japanese volleyball punter. Mixing the two will only take the edge you have in the ping-pong and give it back to the bookie. Stick to what you're good at and don't bet on other sports just because there are no matches in your fields of expertise. Instead of despairing about it you should cherish those moments. They will give you time to catch up and absorb all the info you might have missed thus reaffirming your edge over the bookie.

5. READING and RESEARCH. Never stop doing this. Because as we speak, on a random small blog somewhere, the newest 100% winning strategy is being developed. If you hurry up and find it today you will be ahead of the curve and will be able to milk it before the market, that ugly ever-adjustable bastard, does what it always does: ADJUST.

On a side note, hot ladies...

Random tips for 19.1.13

1. Granada- Rayo Vallecano 2 3.4 (Will Hill) LOST
2. Palermo - Lazio o2.5 2.31 (188bet) WON

Tosay's record: 1-1, +0.31lsp

Random tips for 17.1

Hey guys,

one tip caught my eye on tonight's NBA program.

1. NY Knicks- DET Pistons U197.5 1.94 (Pinnacle)

Update: Easy win this one, never really threatened to go over.

Random tips for 14.1

I really like this one:

1.Beira Mar- Estoril o2.5 @2.15 (bwin) LOST

and a speculative one, mostly because of the ridiculous odds.

2. Radnicki- MZT Skopje 2 @5.00 (bet-at-home) LOST

Update: 0-2, MZT ended up really tight, good for those who decided to take the handicap.

Random tips for 13.1.2013

Back here after some soul-searching. I'm into stockings now :P

One tip really caught my eye for its huge value. The match starts at 12.00 CET (1h 45 minutes from now) so better hurry up.

1. Betis- Levante O2.5 gls 2.07 (bet365) LOST

Betis is 11-7, Levante is 10-8 when it comes to Over 2.5 goals, yet the bookies are offering odds above 2.00. I got it at 2.07 at bet 365, but didn't shop around at all. Over 3.5 is a riskier, but a valid proposition too. Levante is a funny team when it comes to that. If it went O2.5 it went O3.5 too 7 out of the 10 times. Betis is 6 of 11 when it comes to that stat. To me either one is great value and you should milk that cow until it reaches 1.95-ish (for the o2.5 of course).

P.S best of the rest in the early programme, still half an hour before the Torino game kicks off :

2. Torino - Siena o2.5 2.40 (bet365) WON
3. Man.Utd- Liverpool 1 1.95 (bet 365) WON

Total: 2-1, +1.35 lsp

Random tips for 2.8

1. Arsenal Kiev (-1 AH) - Mura 2 3.11 (Pinnacle) L
2. Ruch - Plzen x 3.57 (Pinnacle) L
3. Tromso - Met Donetsk 1 2.65 (Unibet) L
4. Yehuda- PAOK 1 3.00 (Ladbrokes) L
5. Steaua - Trnava x 4.75 (MyBet) L
6. Twente (-2 AH) - M.Boleslav 2 1.95 (Pinnacle) Void
7. Dundee Utd. - Dynamo Moscow 1 5.00 (Will Hill) L
8. Sarajevo - Zeta 2 7.00 (Tipico) L

July round-up

An entirely unimportant July is behind us. I was totally demotivated to post any tips, posting 14 tips altogether. There simply wasn't anything that would tickle my fancy so i just relaxed and let it be. I did, as a matter of fact start a poker challenge to get me back into the game, but that is not too important. I don't expect any profits from that whatsoever.
As the major football leagues are approaching i should sit down and reconsider what strategy to pursue because it is painfully obvious that just by picking random events and random tips i am not going to be able to show consistent profits. It is all going to depend on the spare time i will be able to allocate to this hobby of mine. Elaborate schemes and systems, such as the 'daily picks' i had at the beginning or the 'successful tipsters' scheme i tried at one period, take a lot of time.
I might as well keep on bumping from one wall to the other in search of the holy grail, but that is a method i hate because its time-consuming and brings 0% certainty in making your commitment worthwhile.