MLB Preseason: NY Yankees - Atlanta Braves

As I wrote a few days ago I am all excited about the new MLB season. I've been following the pre-season like never before and as the number of matches played increases some trends are already visible. Therefore I will try and analyse a few matches hoping we might make some money out of that. Please note, no one cares about the score in pre-season matches, not even the players. Because of that fact things might go horribly when trying to predict the outcomes.

For the first analysis I chose Yankees (3-10) vs. Braves (7-8)

Starters:

The starters (source mlb.com) are Jose Ramirez (NYY) and Mike Minor (ATL).

I expect none of them will be on the mound longer than 3.1 innings. 3.1 innings, however, is 37% of the match so there's plenty of opportunity to destroy your team's chances of winning in those 10 outs. I don't believe that will be the case today though.

Ramirez doesn't have any MLB starts to his name. His stats
Spring training 2013: 5.0IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 1SO, .176 AB%, 0.8 WHIP, 0.00 ERA
Career (in minors): 420.0IP, 386H, 210R, 149BB, 392SO, .241AB%, 1.27 WHIP, 3.73ERA

Minor:
Spring 2013: 5.0 IP, 4H, 2R, 3BB, 7SO, .211AB%, 1.4WHIP, 3.60ERA
Reg.season MLB: 302.2IP, 297H, 155R, 97BB, 265SO, .259AB%, 1.3WHIP, 4.37ERA

I am giving the edge to Atlanta because of Minors MLB experience. He has improved in all of his three MLB seasons and Ramirez hasn't been constantly facing major league hitters.

Relievers:

I expect Rondon, Claiborne and Miller to make an appearance for the Yankees. They've combined 14.1 innings, 1 run allowed, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts.
On the Braves side Avilan should make an appearance, for the rest no one knows. He has been awesome in 5.1 innings of work, allowing no runs, 3 hits and .167 average.

Yankees bullpen faired better this pre-season as a whole: 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP vs 6.09 ERA, 1.59 WHIP for the Braves bullpen. Clearly the edge in this category goes to the Yankees.

Hitting:

Stats in the spring training so far:

ATL: 15G, 4.73 RPG, 9.93HPG, .780OPS
NYY: 13G, 4.00RPG, 9.30HPG, .701OPS (29th in MLB)

Needless to say, the edge here goes to ATL.

To summarize it all, I expect a low-scoring affair here (as much as one can be in the pre-season) with a slight edge going on the Braves side. Given the fact that the guys in Bet365 are offering Atlanta at 2.00 to win it I believe its worth investing a few dollars.

Tip: Atlanta Braves @2.00 (Bet365)

RESULT: WON, +1.00lsp