With the end of the month nearing I decided to try and see where I really stand, excluding the whole american odds/ 500 units bets nonsense on covers.
For some apparent reason, even though the tipsters I chose were not chosen based on the sport they are good at, they seem to be good at baseball and suck at the rest of the sports. I could say "go figure" and carry on with it, but that's just not me. I'll dig this one out, I just need a strategy.
Main suspicion:
Sample size. Given that baseball is pretty much the only sport worth betting that's in full swing, most of the bets are on baseball. The rest is on weird sports like WNBA, CFL, NHL, NBA (before it ended) etc. Also, don't kill me for putting NHL and NBA in the weird sports league, but the playoff games in those sports tend to produce weird results. Regarding the rest, there is hardly anyone following those sports semi seriously. I mean, come on, WNBA :)??? 76 of the month's bets so far were on MLB, 41 on the rest of the sports. If the discrepancy doesn't level out any time soon I might have to go through all the bets made by my "selected few" and see whether this bias is real.
Second, whats with the odds Covers? If the spread is given you invest 550 to get 500, making the odds 1.91. What is this, the 80s? Pinnacle offer 1.952 in situations like that. There is no long term winner making money using these odds. If the bets were for real money it would have been called robbery. Also, calculating ROI using american odds is ridiculously hard work.
Luckily there is a solution to that. Starting 1.7.2013 I will start using another service to calculate the bets. i will still draw them from covers, but won't place them there.There are a few sites looking for the best odds on the net, so that kills both problems I have this month.
The most important one (MLB/ non MLB success rate) still remains, I will monitor that situation closely.
Looking forward to the final figures for the month. Will post them right after month's end.
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