Sunday, June 9, 2013

The way overdue May update

As can be seen May sucked terribly. A strike rate of 38% over 192 matches isn't going to cut it. The system as it stands, after more than 330 bets is nearing -2% ROI. Given how spectacular the preseason was it couldn't have gone any wronger in the first two months. Several possible reasons for that:

-The data input is a tedious mind-numbing process. This caused discipline lapses and whole days/ weeks of scheduled games were not calculated. Manually calculating the odds AND updating the results in a spreadsheet AND updating the blog WHILE holding a full time job is a hard-core hustle. No time for anything else whatsoever.

-The tediousness of point nr.1 prevented me from any further enhancements/ improvements to the formulas. Basically i kept on using the exact same formula while a lot of factors changed.

-The system did not create major favorites pre-match, which lead to many placed bets on the Marlins/ Astros, two terrible teams that lost even more than what they were priced in for. This might be the biggest issue in the logic of the system. This might have to do with the fact that my system assumed both starting pitchers will last equally deep into the match, which is obviously wrong. I wonder how i let that one slip past me from the very beginning. If, by some miracle, I stumble into a lot of time i will try and incorporate that into the system and run another try.

I can find other errors ranging from subjective assumptions incorporated into the system to plain stupidity on my behalf, but that would require further in depth analysis, which  I wont do, at least now.

The silver lining: As Mr.Edison said a long time ago, I haven't failed a 100 times, I found a 100 approaches that don't work. We just have to keep at it until we strike gold or die, whatever comes first:).

The plan for the foreseeable future: I may be a late bloomer, but i finally discovered the beauty of covers.com. There is a tone of gold to be found out there, you just have to dig deep enough. The beauty of it is: ITS ABSOLUTELY FREE! I am not talking about buying tips from the paid services there. There is a wealth of free tips given out by some very knowledgeable guys. I am in the process of going through the gutter in order to find the diamonds in the rough. To follow my progress you can check out my space over there. My username is Sukloski. I'll report the ups and downs of that venture as I go along.


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