Random tips for 14.1

I really like this one:

1.Beira Mar- Estoril o2.5 @2.15 (bwin) LOST

and a speculative one, mostly because of the ridiculous odds.

2. Radnicki- MZT Skopje 2 @5.00 (bet-at-home) LOST

Update: 0-2, MZT ended up really tight, good for those who decided to take the handicap.

Random tips for 13.1.2013

Back here after some soul-searching. I'm into stockings now :P

One tip really caught my eye for its huge value. The match starts at 12.00 CET (1h 45 minutes from now) so better hurry up.

1. Betis- Levante O2.5 gls 2.07 (bet365) LOST

Betis is 11-7, Levante is 10-8 when it comes to Over 2.5 goals, yet the bookies are offering odds above 2.00. I got it at 2.07 at bet 365, but didn't shop around at all. Over 3.5 is a riskier, but a valid proposition too. Levante is a funny team when it comes to that. If it went O2.5 it went O3.5 too 7 out of the 10 times. Betis is 6 of 11 when it comes to that stat. To me either one is great value and you should milk that cow until it reaches 1.95-ish (for the o2.5 of course).

P.S best of the rest in the early programme, still half an hour before the Torino game kicks off :

2. Torino - Siena o2.5 2.40 (bet365) WON
3. Man.Utd- Liverpool 1 1.95 (bet 365) WON

Total: 2-1, +1.35 lsp

Random tips for 2.8

1. Arsenal Kiev (-1 AH) - Mura 2 3.11 (Pinnacle) L
2. Ruch - Plzen x 3.57 (Pinnacle) L
3. Tromso - Met Donetsk 1 2.65 (Unibet) L
4. Yehuda- PAOK 1 3.00 (Ladbrokes) L
5. Steaua - Trnava x 4.75 (MyBet) L
6. Twente (-2 AH) - M.Boleslav 2 1.95 (Pinnacle) Void
7. Dundee Utd. - Dynamo Moscow 1 5.00 (Will Hill) L
8. Sarajevo - Zeta 2 7.00 (Tipico) L

July round-up

An entirely unimportant July is behind us. I was totally demotivated to post any tips, posting 14 tips altogether. There simply wasn't anything that would tickle my fancy so i just relaxed and let it be. I did, as a matter of fact start a poker challenge to get me back into the game, but that is not too important. I don't expect any profits from that whatsoever.
As the major football leagues are approaching i should sit down and reconsider what strategy to pursue because it is painfully obvious that just by picking random events and random tips i am not going to be able to show consistent profits. It is all going to depend on the spare time i will be able to allocate to this hobby of mine. Elaborate schemes and systems, such as the 'daily picks' i had at the beginning or the 'successful tipsters' scheme i tried at one period, take a lot of time.
I might as well keep on bumping from one wall to the other in search of the holy grail, but that is a method i hate because its time-consuming and brings 0% certainty in making your commitment worthwhile.

Random tips for 16.7

1. Djurgarden(-1AH) - Norrkoping 1 2.49 (Pinnacle) LOST
2. Malmo (-1AH) - GAIS 2 2.3 (Pinnacle) LOST

Dailly summary: W0 L2, -2.0 LSP 
Monthly summary: W3 L11, -1.77 LSP 

Random thoughts on my random tips

Its the 5th month since i started posting the random tips and an analysis was long overdue.
I did an analysis for April and May only. March is not on my spreadsheet and i'm too lazy to go back and add it. June was small sample size, lots of different tips which were not limited to1x2 or goals (EURO mania). This would mean the conclusions we can draw from June will be shady to say the least.
Given the number of tips I've got in April and May (a lot!) its safe to say they are enough of an indicator to prove how much I suck at this. They can also prove that punting, without trading is a hell of a nerve-wrecker if you want to make decent money out of it. Anyways, on to what i found out.
Stats only prove what i suspected: I suck on all fields. Since most of my bets are x, the biggest losses occurred when i predicted the draw (how shocking, right?). May brought a 38.17 pts. loss, April -13.8. The number of draw tips in both months were roughly equal to the rest of tips added together.  E.g. April tips: x 262 tips, 1 136 tips, 2 102 tips, rest 6 tips.
The home win tips were not terrible, -9 pts. for both months. Away tips, which comes as a bit of a surprise to me is slightly in plus, a bit over 0.5 pts. The rest of the tips (goals, FGS, random other) are too small of a sample size to judge.
I still hope i'm not as bad as I appeared in April and May. I leave the space for correction because of the well known notion that by the end of the season lots of teams are not playing as recent form might suggest. With form being one of the main factors in choosing a selection you can understand how this might bias the numbers. Just look at May, the month where most leagues finished. I lost over 40pts. in total without really changing the way i was choosing my selections.
The battle is long and fearsome but the goal is too sweet to quit. We're moving on, thought by our past mistakes in hope of a better new season.

Random tips for 15.7

1. Viking- Honefoss x 3.94 (5dimes, 2 other) LOST
2. Songdal- Stabaek x 3.84 (5dimes, 2 other) LOST
3. Haugesund - Rosenborg x 3.69 (5dimes, 2other) LOST
4. Orebro - Hacken 1 3.6 (188bet) LOST
5. Kalmar- Elfsborg x 3.52 (Pinnacle, 3 other) LOST

Two 90 minutes goals killed off two draws. Oh well, it goes with the job when looking for draws.

Dailly summary: W0 L5, -5.0 LSP 
Monthly summary: W3 L9, +0.23 LSP

Random tips for 14.07

1. Atvidabergs - AIK o2.5 2.00 (5Dimes, 888sport) LOST
2. Helsingborg- Syrianska x 5.12 (Pinnacle) LOST
3. IFK Goteborg - Gefle x 5.01 (Pinnacle) WON
4. Mjallby - Sundsvall 2 4.00 (888sport, Blue square) LOST

Dailly summary: W1 L3, +1.01 LSP 
Monthly summary: W3 L4, +5.23 LSP

Random tips for 08.07

The random tips are back:

1. Aalesund- Viking x 3.62 (5dimes) WON
2. Grenland- Haugesund x 3.5 (Noxwin, Circlebet) LOST
3. Sandnes - Valerenga 2 3.6 (bet365) WON

Dailly summary: W2 L1, +4.22 LSP
Monthly summary: W2 L1, +4.22 LSP

Post EURO, post holiday thoughts

Its been a good period. The EURO was a lot of fun, especially since i was in Italy during their bid to win it all. They didn't win it, but they've won me over. I've never really liked them in the past (duh, obvious, who didn't) but what Prandeli has done seems to have worked. I hate Baloteli, i dislike Casano, but the rest is a bunch of hard working guys who can beat most teams.
Betting sucks lately (not that there's a chance to create a huge sample size these days). I failed to make my goal for the last month and that stings, but there's always another month.
Enjoy the lazy period and get ready for the football season. I hope I'll find the time to bet a bit this month, but i wouldn't rely on that too much.