Sunday, September 18, 2011

Pick 139: Skovde- Guif

A match from the Swedish handball league. Bookmakers set the line at first at 62.5 goals. There are two problems with this thing. First 60 is a psychological line over which not many people are willing to bet, even though the game is , at least on paper a favorite to reach the 60 goals mark. Second, handball is not a heavily followed sport and if a lot of money go in on one side there is no chance the bookie will balance the bets on both sides in time, unless they radically slash the margin and leave some cushion between in which they hope the match wont finish.
Todays match is the perfect example. The spread got slashed to 58.5 and i'd be more than willing to take the overs.
In the last 10 matchups (that's all i could find) between these two teams the total has gone over the mark of 56.5.

Pick: Over 58.5 @1.95 (pinnacle)
Stake: 75

Result: WON

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