Looking for the big draw

Trebic- Beroun

Again going with a value bet from the Czech 1st league.

Trebic are massive favorites if you trust the odds and most of the statistical evidence points to a clear home win. Trebic, however, haven’t been convincing lately and given the fact they have a certain spot in the playoffs there might be a slight place for a slip-up. At these odds I am more than willing to take the chance. The last 4 Trebic matches ended up in one goal difference, 2 of them going into overtime.

Beroun are coming out of a scrappy match against Havlickuv Brod they lost late in the third. Both coaches in the interviews after the match agreed that Beroun deserved at least a point out of the encounter. Against H.Brod there was a significant improvement in their defensive play, resulting in 31 shots allowed. In the 7 matches previous to that they were allowing 50+ shots on average. Even with that sort of leaky defense they held the table leader Mlada Boleslav to a regulation draw and managed one goal wins against in-form Benatky, 3rd placed Jihlava and average Usti nad Labem. That brings the total to 5 one goal matches in the last 8.

My thesis here is that the match will be much closer than the odds make it appear and the 6.3 odds for a regular time draw are just too good to miss out on. To put things into perspective, the last match between these two teams was played 11.11.2013 and the best odds for the draw were 4.5. Trebic was in a better form at that point than they are today, having won 3 of 4. Beroun came into that match riding a 4 match losing streak. I know that looking at the odds then and now is a very general assumption, but I just can’t see how an increase of 40% in the odds for a draw can be justified. A scrappy match that can go either way is well within the options here.

Pick: Draw (60 min.) @ 6.3 on Marathonbet