Sunday, February 2, 2014

Czech hockey pick for the day


Also posted on Betrush. You can see my czech hockey stats there.

Pardubice - Vitkovice

This one promises to be a high quality contest. I am edging with the away team Vitkovice to win it by two or more just because of the bookies irrational approach to pricing it. Namely, the team that’s riding a seven away games wining streak, coming off full 7 days of rest is being priced as the underdog. The win odds are moving around 1.72 for Pardubice and 2.15 for Vitkovice. The least they could do was to price it 50/50.

Pardubice is a typical “hot and cold” type of team. The last 5 matches they changed wins and losses on regular basis, winning the last one played away in Zlin. Before that there was a 4 match losing streak. Before that streak they took points in 5 of the 6 previous matches. Even within a single game they are prone to sudden lapses in concentration. In the penultimate match, played away at Kladno, one of the weakest teams in the league, they took a 3-0 lead, only to lose the match 4-3 in overtime. The last match against Zlin they played with poise and intensity, winning it 4-1 (the 4th goal being an empty-netter) so I am hoping they won’t be able to sustain that intensity level for a second match in three days, with a travel from Zlin (on the south of Czech Republic) to Pardubice (central Bohemia region) in between.

Vitkovice is coming fresh off a 7 day break due to the Davis cup matches being played in their home arena. Having enough time to travel and prepare for the match must give them some sort of edge. If anything, they had a chance to tend to all the minor health issues. Reportedly Michal Hlinka (25 matches, 3 goals, 6 assists, 11:31 average time on ice)and Michael Vandas (38 matches, 7 goals, 8 assists, 10:44 TOI) complained on injuries and their presence is not confirmed yet. Their seven consecutive away wins helped them solidify their position as the best away team in the league with a 14-7 record. Sparta is second with 12-9.

Most likely the winner will be decided by details and when it comes to high pressure no-mistake-allowed matches I trust Vitkovice more than I do Pardubice. If they enter the match with the intensity they’ve shown in their recent away matches there is a fair chance they can blow the contest open early and contain their lead until the end.

Tip: Vitkovice (-1EH) 2 @4.1 on Unibet

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