Saturday, March 9, 2013

MLB Preseason: BAL Orioles- BOS Red Sox

Pitching:

Wei-Yin Chen (BAL) and Felix Doubront (BOS) get the ball for this one.
Chen is a much better pitcher, which is easily proved by the amount of innings these guys have pitched at the big level. Chen has got 192 IP in MLB and Doubront has got 196 IP. The difference is Doubront did this in three seasons, while Chen had only 2012 to achieve these 192 IP. The rest of the numbers just confirm this: ERA Chen 4.02/ Doubront 4.86, WHIP 1.26 vs. 1.48, BB 57 vs. 89, opponent average .250 vs. .263 etc. I believe Doubront is a much easier target to run into trouble early on.

Relief:

This is a 50-50 deal, Baltimore's has got a 4.38 ERA, 1.6 WHIP vs. Boston's 4.87 ERA, 1,47 WHIP. Baltimore's lower ERA might give them an extremely small edge because, the way I see the correlation between ERA and WHIP,  when things became sticky Baltimore's bullpen cracked less often than the Red Sox relievers.

Batting:

Easy win for the Orioles in this one too. They are smoking hot, having 10.25 hits per game, compared to Boston's 8.92. That translated into 6.08 runs per game for Baltimore and 4.78 for  Boston.

With all that I mentioned above, and with the guys at Bet365 giving the favorite role to the Red Sox, the choice is easy.

Tip: Baltimore win @1.95 (Bet365)
RESULT: WON, +0.95 lsp . For some reason Baltimore started Bundy instead of Chen so we can consider ourself lucky here. That's the unpredictability of spring baseball, a pitcher change can happen very near the beginning of the match. Given bet365 isn't tying the odds to the starting pitchers for the preseason it is still a win. Any other regular season game it would have been a void bet.

No comments:

Post a Comment