I've spent most of my day creating an elaborate spreadsheet incorporating a HUGE number of factors into calculating the actual probability of an outcome. Its still a work in progress so I am sure some major gaps are in it, but how else am i going to find them unless i try it out.
Here are my odds, the Bet365 odds and the tips recommendations for the matches starting at 7.05pm (Grapefruit league). I will post the Cactus league odds later on.
Match - Starting pitchers - My calculated odds- Bet365 odds at moment of writing - Tip recommendation
1. BOS- TB (Lackey- Moore) - 2.097 vs 1.911 - Bet365: 2.2 vs 1.71 - Tip: BOS @2.2 WON
2. MIA- ATL (Leblanc- Hudson) - 2.019 vs 1.982 - Bet365: 2.35 vs. 1.64 - Tip: MIA@2.35 WON
3. NYY- TOR (Phelps- Happ) - 2.033 vs 1.968 - Bet365: 2.15 vs 1.74- Tip: NYY@2.15 WON
4. NYM- STL (Marcum- Garcia)- 2.100 vs 1.909- Bet365: 2.15 vs 1.74 - NO TIP
5. PHI- HOU (Hamels - Peacock)- NO TIP, no relevant data for Peacock
6. WSH- DET (Harren- Porcello)- 1.924 vs 2.082- Bet365: 2.05 vs 1.8 Tip: WSH@2.05 LOST
A split Pittsburgh squad is playing one match against Baltimore and Minnesota so no odds for that.
RESULT: The awesome start of the season continues for me. 3-1 score in the Grapefruit league, bringing in 2.7 level stakes profit points. The score so far in preseason matches 7-1.
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