Diamonds in the rough

Lately I have been spending most of my free time researching stocks and I can see many aspects of the stocks research overlapping with the search for profitable tips. Stocks wise my personal favorites are small cap stocks, usually not covered by any analysts. If done properly, this opens the opportunity for finding the diamonds in the rough. Hours of hard research can result in you being the first one to "climb aboard" and profit from the analysts "discovering" the stock and adding it to their coverage portfolio.

Same applies for sports betting. In this case the analyst is represented by the large bookmakers. Betting on the French Open would be the equivalent of buying an Apple or Google stock. More or less, all the relevant factors that are known to the public are well incorporated into the current stock price. However, betting on the ITF Guam challenger (actual event, I am not making it up), would be the equivalent of buying a penny-stock. If your homework is done properly, the penny stock might be priced very badly and might bring in sound profits.

As the subject for my "investment thesis" i chose the above mentioned Guam challenger final, where i believe the odds are not a true reflection of the true chances for a win for the competitors. The finalists are Takuto Niki and Jeevan Nedunchezhiyan. The pre-match odds favor Niki 1.57 vs 2.25 (Source: Bet365). My research lead me to believe the exact opposite was true, offering me incredible value on Nedunchezhiyan.

Nedunchezhiyan (ranked 302) reached the finals by beating Kibi (Jpn) 2-1 in the semis. Kibi is ranked 439 and has 14-7 record this year. The points total in the match, 105-85 would point out to a more comfortable win for Nedunchezhiyan than the 2-1 scoreline might suggest. Before the semis Nedunchezhiyan beat the nr.904 (2-0), nr.1645 (2-0) and the unranked Sano in the first round (2-0). He also played in doubles and dropped out Wednesday. I will elaborate why this is important later on.
Before Guam Nedunchezhiyan  played two tournaments in Kazakhstan. He lost in the first round in the first tournament against the Croat Coric (245 ATP) 2-1. In the second tournament he reached the semis, where he lost to Buchanan (218 ATP), previously beating numbers 693, 234 and 337 on the ATP list.
Nedunchezhiyan is going to achieve his career best position on the ATP tour, breaking into the top 300 after this weeks tournament. His score for the year is 12-9.

T.Niki (507 ATP) reached the final after beating his doubles partner Sato (ATP 721) 2-0. Before this match he eliminated Jun (963 ATP), Ushida (No rank) and Yano (No rank). Prior to coming to Guam he had 20+ days gap, the previous tournament being in Korea, where he reached the semis. There he lost to Cho (749 ATP) 0-2, beating numbers 1368 (walkover), 456 and 1146 on the way. Prior to that tournament he reached the quarterfinal in the first one, losing to number 264, beating 456 and 963.
Niki also played the doubles tournament and reached the final of that tournament as well. He played the final yesterday, after the singles semifinal at 2 p.m local time. The temperature was around 30 degrees with humidity over 70%. Same forecast is expected tomorrow and surely Niki will be the less fresh of the two.

Niki's schedule, combined with the fact Nedunchezhiyan is in better form, beating more high-quality opponents makes me think the odds of 2.25 on Nedunchezhiyan are far too generous to refuse.

My bet: Nedunchezhiyan to win @2.25 (Bet365)

Result: The bet lost. Whatever the outcome, if you do the due diligence, profit can be found in the most unusual of markets. Take this example as a thinking point and expand it with your own inputs. With the odds on the main events getting sharper by the day, a little inovation goes a long way.