Enter The Internet.
I went to a rather well known tipster site and found exactly what i expected. Tips based on subjective opinions, based on nationality of the player, based on stats from past matches or in some cases on pure hunches.
Lets see a selection of them, i will pick the first 3 i come across and dissect them. I will have a go at each of the matches analysed. Based on whether the writeup is good or bad i will choose to back or to oppose the tip the tipster suggests.
1. XXXXXX is XXth on ATP, he isn't really performing on clay, indeed his results are poor on clay and he even quite boshing up his preparation for Roland Garros. I think that it's too bad because I think that he has the tennis to do well on clay, he moves well on his baseline and shot well, kind of Nishikori in less good of course, but he prefers to focuse on hard...
It could be weird now that I said that but I will trust him for this first round.
I will trust him because he won first round last year with the same lack of preparation against XXXX but especially because he will meet a player who is even worst than him on clay.
Indeed he is going to play against fXXXXX player XXXXX who is XXth on ATP and who has terrible results on clay. His tennis made of straight shots without any lift definitely don't match the surface and I don't think that it will bother the XXXXX player.
I also don't think that playing at home will boost him, he already played 7 French Open and still not a single win on final table.
In essence, this guy bases his tip on a combo of past results. He provided no reason whatsoever that could explain why he thinks the bookies got the odds right and that the match is priced incorrectly. Therefore i will go directly against his tip. Got odds of 1.9 (placing all with bet365, not shopping for odds)
2. Roland Garros, first round. A match between XX and YY tennis player. XXX is on a lower spot, I think that he will win this match without much trouble. XXX is much experinced player, he has X titles, all on clay, while YYY does not have any. XXX is best on clay, while YYY is worst on clay, he prefers grass or hard courts.
This year, YYY played 10 matches on clay, and won 4, but vs weaker opponents. XXX played 22 matches, won 13. These two players played in ZZZ this year, and XXX won 6-3,6-2. According to their previous matches, it is obvious that, on clay, XXX easily beats players who are naturally bad on clay, and YYY almost always loses to clay-specialists. Therefore, I think that XXX will win 3-0 today.
This guy goes for the old adagio. If a player beats another player, he will beat the same player over and over again until they both die of old age. I will go for Over 3.5 sets. Got it at 1.9.
3.Its strange for a XX but XX sometimes seems to play better on hard then on clay. He takes balls much faster on hard and he had his best wins were on hard this year. On clay he recently lost to ZZ, who is a future player. But i would not take that seriously, in fact XX is a player who you can not trust in Challengers. In ZZ however he retired against ZZ Last year something similair happened, his match before RG also retired and then in the slam itself retired against ZZ. Anyway this bet is not based on his condition and i expect him to be healthy.
He faces YY. YY is typical an all or nothing player, lots of unforced errors and mentally one of the biggest hotheads on Tour. Smashing rackets, complaining about everything, we all know it from him. But the guy can also play. Amazing winners from everywhere, passes, dropshots and when his first serve goes in he is trouble for every player on tour.
In paris he is good, last year made it to the 3rd round and the year before made it to the second round. Big advantage that he is in his home country because to be honest i would noty trust to bet on him outside France. I think he will dominate in this match, with yes some unforced errors, but more winners to eventually pass to the second round in maybe a long match.
This guy swayed me in his favour. He seems like the only one of the selection to have actually seen the players he's placing a bet on. He is mentioning technical aspects of the game, as well as pointing out to the fragility of player X. I will choose to back his bet. I got him at 2.1 because he was already 1-0 down in the first set at the time of writing.
Given the fact that 95% of the people (source : my ass) that write these tips are long term losing tipsters i have high degree of confidence making some long term profit using this method is possible, understandably with several modifications (ex. odds shopping, excluding mutually conflicting tips etc).
I will keep you posted on how i did today with the three selections.
Results:
1. WON- 3-0 sweep, +0.9 unit profit
2. VOID - Clearly missed thesis by the tipster, player X retired after going down 1-3 in the 1st
3. WON +1.1 units
Final: 2.0 units of profit achieved thanks to a 15 minute analysis. In conclusion, if you don't have the time, let the others do the work for you. If you are smart enough to filter the added value from non added value posts you could achieve success. Now go test the theory and report back with the piles of money you made thanks to me :).
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