And another one...

You know the drill... I pick a random tipster write-up and based on how i perceivethe write-up i decide to follow, oppose or deduct something that wasn't the tipsters idea in the thesis. I am on a quest to prove that the internet is full of free useful information and that even from a useless write-up you can come up with a winning tip.

Today, i will combine two write-ups on the same match. One is searching for the winner of the match, the other is over/under.

Siena -Reggiana

Im in hurry today , but one good tip i founded definitvv< worth to try , its Lega baskett game Beetween Montepashci Siena and Reggiana , from one side we have Montpepaschi team thet lost all they key players team is completly new compare with last year , they dissapointed in Euroelague and also Eurocup , i think Reggiana winner of Eurochallenge that not bad competition like someone my think , its very strong competition and you moght be really good team to win that , so at all i think at least fight but i go with Regiiana win and we see what happeed , my prediction Reggiana

The guy was in a hurry so he decided to base his tip on the fact that a lot of players left Siena last year (?!) and that Regianna won the 3rd best euro-cup, the basketball equivalent of the Intertoto cup. He has a magnificent record as far as these sites go, posting 6.16% ROI over 550+ tips, but if the quality of the writeup here is anything to go by he doesn't put a lot of effort into research. He went for a Regianna win with a +1.5 handicap at odds of 2.95. I'll be humble and take the home win (to clear the -1.5 spread as well), available at 1.44 on bet365.

This is the decisive game for this pair. The winner today will go through to the semi-finals. Despite that the importance of this match is huge, I expect a big score here as well. Teams have been playing high scoring basketball so far. Each of the previous 4 games have ended with at least 156 points scored. Montepaschi overall is better in defense at home, but both meetings between the sides in Siena were the most high scoring. Reggiana is one of the best 3pt shooting teams in the league, and also on the road they can score very good. I think that this will be another high scoring match-up.

This guy (3.5% ROI over almost 300 tips, only one tip on Italian basket) used a combo of past results and well known facts about both teams to justify his overish feeling about this match. I am sure the past 4 matches have already been factored in the current odds, as well as the fact that Regianna is one of the best 3pt teams. His tip is O158.5 at 2.95, we are going U158.5 at odds of 1.38.

I hate playing the low odds, but the quality of the two writeups i could find on this one gave me no choice.

Result: The Over/ Under was missed after an incredible scoring display by both teams in the last quarter. The P-L for the day is -0.54 level stakes profit.