Pick 184: Liberec- Sparta

I am playing the numbers game here:
-3 of the last 5 matches between these two teams, including this season's first matchup, went to OT
-3 of the last 5 home matches for Liberec, including 2 of the last 2 went to overtime
-3 of the last 5 matches Sparta played went into OT
-The last 3 away matches Sparta played went into OT
-Odds on the regulation draw can be found at 4.2 and above (i even found 4.33). This represents 23.8% chances, meaning if we took this every time and 1 out of 4 ended in a regulation draw we're positive.
-See where i am going with this one?:)

Why i think this might actually come true:
Its true Sparta hasn't won here since 2007, but history is not a factor to lean on much in Czech hockey since the changes the teams go through from season to season are just to huge for historical stats to matter. Liberec will be handicapped entering this match. They will miss Spacek (forward, 13 matches so far, 3G,2A), Klimenta (forward, 13 matches, 5G,3A, 3rd team scorer) who they've sent on a loan to Trinec for some reason beyond my comprehension, Moravec (5G, 0G, 0A), Visek (5G, 0G, 0A) and Kudrna (12Gm, 1Gl, 3Ass) who is uncertain. In Sparta's team only one missing is Krstev (3 games this season).
Liberec best player at the moment is 40yrs old Petr Nedved with 21 pts (10+11). The rest are a landslide behind in scoring. Take him out and you're gold. With the addition of Koci to the team that might come easier than you think. Sparta's scoring is more leveled with Ton, Tenkrat and Bliznak with 14, 12 and 10 pts.
In conclusion i am expecting a close game, edging slightly towards Sparta win, but the regulation draw seems like the best bet here.

Pick: Draw (60mins.) @4.33 (Bodog)
Stake: 50

Result: LOST