I am one of the firm believers the Canadiens are better than their record so far suggests. They came back on winning track yesterday, when they thrashed Philadelphia 5-1 and will try to surprise Boston on their own ice today. Back to back matches can sure be tough for the teams, but sometimes the momentum from such a win like yesterday can also carry over and before fatigue kicks in you've won the next match too.
There is a special touch of rivalry here. Both teams are members of the original 6, but more importantly this:
"Thursday also marks Pacioretty’s first meeting with Boston since he sustained a concussion and cracked vertebra on a hit by Bruins defenseman Zdeno Chara(notes) during a 4-1 Canadiens victory March 8, ending his 2010-11 season."- Source Yahoo! Sports.
I expect a lot of settling of unsettled debts and an electric atmosphere in which special teams might decide the match winner.
Special teams for both teams haven't been up to the task. Bostons PP is at 12.9%(4/31) and their penalty kill is at 87.9% (4/33). Montreal's stats are similar 10.8% (4/37) PP, 82% PK (7/39). 5 on 5 play balances the small edge Boston might have. They have 0.93 golas for/goals against ratio and Montreal has 1.2 index.
Similarities don't end there. Both teams out-shoot their opponents day in and day out, Boston 34.5-29.4 and Montreal 33.2-26.1 but still both concede more than they score on average (Boston 2.25 GF/G -2.38 GA/G, Montreal 2.56-2.89)
All in all i expect a tight match where details will decide the winner. In these cases i always go for the big odds.
Pick: Montreal(in 60 mins.) @3.79 (Bet365)
Stake: 50
Result: WON
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