Two of the hottest teams in the NHL meet today in Toronto. Avs going for the fifth win in their road trip and Leafs going for 4-0-0. Not much to separate these two on paper. Last matches for both teams were tough wins, Avs beating the Canadiens in a 6-5 thriller and Leafs coming from behind to beat the Flames 3-2.
Not much separates these two teams. The most critical difference i see goes in favor of the Avs and that is why i am edging on their side. They are out-shooting opponents 33.2-32.2 in average, while the Leafs are getting out-shot by a lot, 26-32. In the matches that the Avs outshot the opponents they've won (2/2). Also, the Avs are much better on the powerplay, scored 6/20 times, which is 30% and the Leafs scored 2/17 times. My guess is the Avs will spend more of the time in powerplay than shorthanded because they have 10 PIM per game while Toronto has 17.
Only trouble might arise in 5/5 play where Toronto seems to outplay any opponent and has twice as much scored as received goals in 5/5. Colorado has a 0.88% rating in this stat. As far as penalty killing goes both teams havent been perfect, but not bad either (around 88%).
The only "handicap" for Avs might be Gigguere in goal instead of Varlamov, but i wouldnt call having Gigguere a handicap no matter what.
Pick: Colorado (+0.75)AH @1.88 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 75
Result: WON
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