Monday, October 31, 2011

Pick 190: Fenerbahce- Kardemir Karabuk

Fenerbahce is the clear favorite here and i think the good prices for Fenerbahce win and all different handicaps are already gone. Betting on Fenerbahce at 1.3 or the 1.5AH at 1.8 is way too risky.
I do however see an opportunity in the goals market, where over 2.5 is offered at 1.7. I see this as a generous offer especially considering the fact that we have a huge home favorite who wont be satisfied by just scoring one goal. Fenerbahce are coming of a huge 2-2 draw against Besiktas and a disappointing home draw against Samsun, so i think its finally time for a show at their own field.
Karabuk aren't having the best start. They are currently 15th with 2-2-4 score and 9-11 goal difference. They are showing signs of improvement lately, drawing against Samsun 0-0 and defeating Buyuksehir 2-0. Even in the three losses before these two matches they managed to score a goal in each encounter (2-1 Manisa, 2-1 Ordu, 3-1 Trabzon). If they manage to squeeze one past Fener too i am confident this bet will be a winner because i don't see any other outcome than Fenerbahce win in this one.

Pick: Over 2.5 @1.7 (expect)
Stake: 100

Result: LOST

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