This match is a regional derby which adds motivation plus to all the players to give their best. One look at the table says a lot about the start of the campaigns of both teams. Havlickuv Brod with a score 4-1-2-3 with 38-35 goal difference and Sumperk dead last with 0-1-2-7 and a goal difference 19-37. All pointing to and easy away win. However, if the table was a merit to go by then everyone would be a winner and bookmakers wouldn't exist.
I expect a hard fought match and i cant really see that big of a difference as the bookies suggest. Trebic at home haven't been half as bad. They've lost two, won after OT one and lost one on penalties. The biggest home loss was against Hradec Kralove 2-4, the same team that thrashed Havlickuv Brod 8-4. In an interview for their website Radek Novak was disappointed by the way things are going this season, even more so because of the fact that they are out-shooting most of their opponents. For example in the last match, Saturday vs Benatky, they lost 4-0 and had 39 shots on goal. In comparison against today's opponent they have 38 more total shots on goal (320-282). This combined with the fact that both their goalies have over 90% save percentage makes this a much tighter match than it seemed at first glance.
The away form of Havlickuv Brod is also terrible: one win after OT, one loss on penalties and two 4 goal difference wipe-out losses. In a match played in August between the two teams, Brod won 3-5, but even the players of Brod were claiming that it was a 50/50 match and that the fact that this is a derby makes it even more tempting for both teams.
With the tight and scrappy match we could expect today i would recommend a home win and very few goals in total.
Pick: Under 5.5 @2.00 (bwin)
Stake: 75
Result: LOST
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