Thursday, October 27, 2011

Pick 183: Dallas- Los Angeles

Of all the games tonight this one is probably the most destined to end up in a draw in regulation (maybe along with the Wild- Ducks one). Two of the tightest teams and two of the best goalies so far meet today in a rematch just 4 days after their first, which ended in a 1-0 win for the Kings in LA. The Kings won that match, but were far from the dominating force. In fact Dallas was the better team for most of the match, which was reflected on the shot clock 28 shots for Dallas, 24 for LA.
By simply adding the totals of shots they average per match (around 54 shots total) and factoring the effect the goalies will have (Quick 97.2 save% and 0.81 GAA- simply ridiculous and Lehtonen's 95.5 Save%+ 1.54 GAA) we can conclude this match wont be a wild goal-scoring affair. However, what we can statistically add up bookies can do it ten times better, so there is no real value in going under 5.5 goals.
Instead i am going to pick a side and this time i think Dallas will finally be able to break the curse and score on Quick. For a team that is 3-0 at home, 2.05 i think is way too much of a luxury for us to miss.

Pick: Dallas (incl OT and SO)@ 2.05 (bet365)
Stake: 75

Result: LOST

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